In my last dynasty buy now article at PFN, I recommended buying Jamison Crowder in dynasty. Today I tell you why Anthony Miller is a dynasty value top buy in 2020.
Anthony Miller’s 2020 dynasty value
Anthony Miller has been plagued by injuries in college and during his first two seasons in the NFL, which has led to a low price in dynasty that you should be trying to take advantage of. In college, he dealt with a shoulder injury in his freshman year while also suffering a Jones fracture in his foot in his final collegiate game that led him to not participate at the 2018 NFL Combine. Despite all that, he was selected with the 51st pick in the 2018 draft and has since been long forgotten by dynasty players as a valuable asset.
His current shoulder injury has many dynasty players sleeping on him as it plagued him at the beginning of the 2019 season before a solid breakout over the Chicago Bears final six games. Unfortunately for Miller, he re-injured his left shoulder yet again on a kickoff return in Week 17 and is now recovering from off-season surgery.
According to Kent Lee Platte (@Mathbomb) here at PFN, Miller is an explosive athlete posting a RAS of 9.27, which has me thinking a few shoulder injuries is nothing to ultimately worry about when it comes to translating his athletic ability to on field play.
Late Season Surge
Miller played 89%/94%/100% of the snaps in Weeks 14-16, respectively, when he was fully healthy to close out the season before being injured Week 17 of last year. With the Bears investing at the position just once in the fifth round of this year’s draft, and not signing a single free agent at the position, there is little doubt that Miller is penciled in as an every snap player for the Bears heading into 2020.
From Weeks 10-16 when fully healthy, Miller saw at least nine targets in four of six games with two 100-yard+ games and two touchdowns in that span as well. Since there is little to no change in the Bears’ passing game, the dynasty community is simply too low on Miller right now as rookie fever has run wild. Allen Robinson played in all of these games so the comparison forward to the 2020 season is very apples to apples to me.
Here at PFN, Miller is ranked at WR56, and several other sources have him right around that ranking as well. This is simply too low to me, as personally, I have him much closer to WR40 than WR50, let alone being ranking in the mid 50’s as a position ranking.
I would take him over any of the WR rookies not named CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor, or Justin Jefferson. In addition, I would take him over current NFL veteran WR’s A.J. Green, T.Y. Hilton, Curtis Samuel, N’Keal Harry, and Darius Slayton, among others in dynasty. Don’t forget that Miller will be just 26 years old in October and is simply discounted due to shoulder injuries.
Cost to acquire
I would be buying Miller if I needed a starting WR for something in the 2.02-2.05 rookie pick range, but the good news is you don’t even have to spend that. I have seen him get moved for the 3.01 straight up as well as very late second-round picks in a 12-team league. If you have one of the early second-round rookie WR’s on your team you can easily get Miller and a 2021 third-round rookie pick back from nearly everyone in dynasty. Public sentiment on Miller is also hilariously bad as you can see from a quick Twitter poll I recently posted.
Anthony Miller is a dynasty value top buy in 2020 if he stays healthy, and he will undoubtedly outperform his ADP in dynasty and best ball if he can stay on the field. Don’t let a shoulder injury stop you from capitalizing on an explosive athlete primed for a good season. BUY BUY BUY!