Amon-Ra St. Brown’s Best Ball Fantasy Outlook: Is the Detroit Lions WR a Safe Bet Again This Year?

Coming off a top-five season, should fantasy managers make Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown one of the top WRs off the board in Best Ball drafts?

Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to get better every year. As his team’s clear WR1 and target hog, St. Brown’s volume should remain elite in 2024.

Where should fantasy football managers feel comfortable taking St. Brown in Best Ball drafts?

Amon-Ra St. Brown’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook

After St. Brown’s scorching finish to his rookie season, he forced fantasy managers to determine whether he was legit. Heading into the 2022 season, there was genuine debate as to whether St. Brown was a high-end talent or if he was just a product of volume.

After the past two seasons, there’s no longer any doubt.

St. Brown has improved in each of his first three years in the league, and done so significantly. After averaging 13.4 fantasy points per game as a rookie, his average spiked to 16.7 points as a sophomore and 20.7 in his third season.

In addition to improving as a fantasy asset, St. Brown also showed progression as a player. He’s still primarily a slot guy. His 47.3% slot rate was fifth in the league last season. However, he’s seen his yards per reception increase each year he’s been in the NFL, going from 10.1 to 11.0 to 12.7.

Last year, St. Brown averaged 2.7 yards per route run, seventh in the league. He saw a 30.2% target share, second in the league. And despite his size and physical profile, the talented wideout was a red-zone weapon, scoring 10 touchdowns and commanding 25 red-zone targets, which was the third most in the NFL.

St. Brown caught 119 passes for 1,515 yards and 10 touchdowns. It’s fair to wonder if he can ever do better than that. But does he have to?

Most elite wide receivers eventually reach their peak level of performance and stay there. No one is going to complain if St. Brown “only” averages 19 points per game in 2024. The more important factor is whether you believe he’s going to consistently produce seasons of around 17-21 points per game for the next handful of years.

Should You Draft St. Brown in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?

There’s no longer any concern that St. Brown is going to “snap back to reality.” This is his reality. He is, in fact, this good. Fantasy managers should have no reason to think St. Brown’s 2024 season will be meaningfully different than he was in 2023.

QB Jared Goff is back. The Lions don’t have any real threats to take targets away from St. Brown. It’s possible they sign or draft another wide receiver, but I don’t envision them targeting someone like Cincinnati Bengals WR Tee Higgins or Indianapolis Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. if they hit the open market. The fourth-year receiver is going to be the guy once again.

St. Brown is everything fantasy managers want from a receiver. He’s both remarkably consistent and has a pretty high weekly ceiling.

KEEP READING: Best Ball Stacking Strategy

St. Brown scored 14+ fantasy points in 14 out of 16 games last season. He had 10 games of 19+ fantasy points and threw in four games of 27+ fantasy points.

With just two games missed in his entire career at just 24 years old, St. Brown is one of the safest picks in all of fantasy football. He’s well worth selecting in the back half of the first round of Best Ball drafts.

With the fantasy football season behind us, why not start preparing for your rookie drafts with our dynasty rookie rankings? Additionally, as you look to improve your team heading into 2024, our dynasty trade calculator can help you find the perfect deal to boost your championship chances.

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