The New York Jets have been a fantasy football wasteland for many years, but that has rapidly changed this season with the healthy return of Aaron Rodgers. After reaching the end zone again on Thursday night vs. the New England Patriots, Allen Lazard has become a popular waiver wire target.
Below we analyze how strongly you should consider adding Rodgers’ longtime teammate.
Should Allen Lazard Be Added on the Fantasy Waiver Wire in Week 4?
Unless otherwise stated, all stats are courtesy of TruMedia.
In Week 3, Lazard garnered only three targets but caught all of them for 48 yards and a touchdown. After reaching the end zone just once last year playing almost entirely without Rodgers, Lazard has already scored three touchdowns on the year, accounting for half of the Jets’ receiving scores thus far.
ALLEN LAZARD TOUCHDOWN❕❕❕#NEvsNYJ on @NFLonPrime pic.twitter.com/zihdOnQkrF
— New York Jets (@nyjets) September 20, 2024
Lazard has 148 receiving yards on the season, two shy of Garrett Wilson for the team lead. However, he actually hasn’t garnered the type of targets you would expect from a true No. 2 receiver.
Lazard is being targeted on 17.6% of his routes, which only ranks fifth on the Jets. League-wide, that ranks 51st among wide receivers.
Fortunately, Lazard has compensated for that middling volume by increasing his efficiency. The veteran wideout has caught 68.8% of his targets, on pace to be his highest since 2020. It’s also an astronomical leap from last year’s woeful 46.9% catch rate, which ranked 93rd out of 94 wide receivers with at least 40 targets.
Lazard’s increased catch rate isn’t a byproduct of some fluky luck, either. His usage has changed compared to last season.
Through three games, Lazard’s aDOT (average depth of target) is 9.8 air yards, on pace to be the lowest of his career. However, he has also generated a whopping 6.4 yards after the catch per reception, on pace to be his career high.
Given Rodgers’ age and health concerns, that playing style seems likely to sustain itself for most of the season. Rodgers’ average time to throw is the fastest in the league at 2.35 seconds, suggesting that the Jets will likely rely on quick throws and YAC opportunities for most of the season.
If anything, the potential for more volume exists and could potentially aid Lazard’s fantasy reliability. Rodgers currently ranks T-18th in pass attempts per game, as the Jets have averaged a fairly neutral game script this season. New York ranks 14th in time trailing through three weeks.
However, Tankathon projects the Jets to have the fourth-toughest remaining strength of schedule, with their Week 5-7 opponents (Vikings, Bills, and Steelers) a combined 8-0. In more negative game scripts, Rodgers could be forced to air the ball out more, lifting all fantasy pass catchers on the roster, including Lazard.
So in determining whether Lazard is a worthy waiver wire add, fantasy managers need to understand how his present usage may balance out his future production.
Lazard is unlikely to end the season with 17 receiving touchdowns, as he is currently on pace for. But his more reliable usage style combined with the possibility of better future volume should raise his floor. Ultimately, any receiver who has earned the trust of a healthy Rodgers is worth rostering, and Lazard checks that box.