Once the hottest name in fantasy football circles this offseason, the excitement for Green Bay Packers RB A.J. Dillon has watched his outlook fall considerably in recent months. But has the pendulum swung too far? Is Dillon in a better situation than his ADP suggests, and could his fantasy outlook lead to a breakout season compared to expectations?
A.J. Dillon’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Remember back in March when Dillon was going to be a high-end RB2 for fantasy? Man, what a time to be alive. We were so optimistic and full of hope coming out of the doldrums that was 2020. But then the Packers re-signed Aaron Jones to a four-year, $48 million contract. And in one fell swoop, demoted Dillon back into the Shadow Realm.
Dillon, the second-most controversial pick of the Packers’ 2020 NFL Draft, had eyes on him from the get-go. He needed to show why Green Bay used a second-round pick on him.
Playing in 11 games, Dillon rushed 46 times for 242 yards and 2 touchdowns while catching his 2 targets for 21 yards. However, it was not until Week 16 against the Tennessee Titans that Dillon finally got to stretch his quads. Playing on 58% of the snaps, he rumbled for 124 yards and 2 touchdowns on 22 carries. He even added a catch for 5 yards as the RB6 on the week (25.4 points).
That game led to many thinking he could blow up should Jones leave town. With that said, Dillon could still end up having a productive second season. Both Jamaal Williams (Detroit) and Tyler Ervin (FA) are off the team, leaving 10.5 touches per game up for grabs. While he is unlikely to see a noticeable share of targets, Dillon should be the RB2 on a high-powered offense and be a factor along the goal line.
Dillon will have a more prominent role than some suspect and could be one of the better “backup” RBs in fantasy. Furthermore, he would have RB2 upside should anything happen to Jones.
Fantasy projection
As head coach Matt LaFleur enters his third season with the Packers, we have a good idea about what to expect for the offense, making projections relatively simple.
As an offense, the Packers ran 62.8 plays per game last year (63.2 in 2019) and rushed on 43.7% of their reps (40.2% in 2019).
Also, we know that Jones will be the lead back — as he should be. In 2019, Jones played on 61% of the snaps, saw a 13% target share, and had 66% of the RB carries. Last season, he took 60% of the snaps, 15% of the targets, and 60% of the carries while missing two games (calf).
So long as Rodgers is at the helm, we should expect nearly identical splits as very little has changed. The only significant changes on the team (for now) have come on the offensive line. The Packers watched center Corey Linsley leave in free agency to the Los Angeles Chargers. Also, Green Bay could be without David Bakhtiari for a significant portion of the season after tearing his ACL in a Week 16 practice.
This leaves Dillon in a change-of-pace role and likely to absorb most of the vacated carries. Thus, he should see around 9-10 rushes per game.
While early, projections for Dillon show he could end up as a value, as he earns around 155-160 carries for 680-700 yards and 4 touchdowns. Although not his primary role, there will be some passing work, likely in the range of 25-30 targets with 20-22 receptions for 140 yards and another score.
A.J. Dillon’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Dillon currently has an ADP of 105.5 in half-PPR formats. In superflex formats, where quarterbacks have an increased value, he falls to 127.7. Meanwhile, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Dillon has an ADP of 94.22. Additionally, on Fleaflicker, Dillon’s ADP is 96.5.
Should you draft A.J. Dillon in 2021 for fantasy?
At RB40, Dillon has the potential to be a fantastic return on investment. At worst, he is a 10-carry-per-week running back on a team with Rodgers under center, which prevents teams from stacking the box. There is a path where Dillon closes in on 200 opportunities, which is very hard to find in this range of the draft. As an RB4, the upside is hard to overlook — even if he is not the RB2 some thought he could have been a few months ago.
After investing a serious chunk of cash in Jones, the Packers unlikely want to overwork him. As annoying as it can be watching him come off the field, Green Bay has done this throughout his career. This time, however, all of those snaps should be funneled to one player, giving Dillon a stable floor in 2021.