AJ Dillon Dynasty Profile: Fantasy Outlook, Value, Projections, and Rankings

Following a lackluster 2022 season, what does AJ Dillon's future look like, and what is his value in dynasty fantasy football leagues going forward?

As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty value of AJ Dillon.

AJ Dillon’s Dynasty Outlook and Value

If you had asked me a year ago, I would’ve said to go all in on acquiring Dillon. Not only did I believe in the talent, I believed in the situation. After Dillon closed out the 2021 season as the clear primary runner and goal-line back ahead of Aaron Jones, I expected this backfield to further tip in his favor in 2022.

Instead, Dillon regressed. He opened the season strong but then went 10 weeks without scoring a touchdown. Over that span, he went from slightly out-snapping Jones over the first month to barely cresting a 30% snap share — he was almost a pure backup.

Despite being 24 years old, Dillon’s dynasty value was tanking fast. He wasn’t playing well, and the takeover needed for Dillon to make the leap into every-week starter territory was not happening.

MORE: 2023 Dynasty Rookie Rankings

Then, Dillon did it again over the latter part of the season. After scoring 20 fantasy points in Week 1, he didn’t hit double digits again until Week 12. But beginning in Week 12, Dillon became the guy I believed in so much heading into the season.

From Weeks 12-17, Dillon averaged 16.7 ppg; he was tied with Tony Pollard as the overall RB7 over that span. 16.7 ppg is firmly in RB1 territory any season.

Dillon averaged 14.2 touches per game over that period, scored in every game, and his snap share returned to around 50%. There were times when he looked like the lead back ahead of Jones.

AJ Dillon’s Fantasy Ranking

Dillon is now 25 years old and entering the final year of his rookie deal. I fully expected the Packers to turn the backfield over to him. Instead, they restructured Jones’ contract, guaranteeing he would remain on the team for at least one more season.

Jones will be 29, which means his time is limited. But Dillon’s rookie deal is up after this season. As a result, his fantasy value is at a bit of a crossroads.

We’re still not sure if he will ever be a lead back. It’s possible in Green Bay but very uncertain if he signs elsewhere in 2024. That makes him tricky to evaluate.

Consider Dillon on the cusp of the RB2 range. He’s currently the RB26, No. 87 in our latest dynasty Superflex rankings. But I can’t say I’m confident in his projection. It’s more of a product of so many formerly great running backs getting older and likely being done in a year or two.

Dillon is the type of player you want to trade if the value is right but keep if you don’t get the deal you’re looking for. The same goes for his value in dynasty startup drafts. If you can get him below cost, the shot is worth taking. Otherwise, pass.

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