Unfortunately for NFL Week 16, our Against the Spread podcast had some technical difficulties and will not be coming through your airwaves this week. Do not fret; we are releasing a special ATS Week 16 NFL picks article with some player props, best bets, and totals that we like. The podcast is currently sitting at a solid twelve units of profit after an 8-1 overall performance in Week 15. We will try to emulate that success once again, with the brain trusts of cohosts Ryan Gosling and Jason Sarney coming together for our NFL Week 16 picks.
Here is a quick look at the lines for this week.
NFL Week 16 lines (Bovada):
HOU @ TB +3
BUF @ NE -6.5
LAR @ SF -6
CAR @ IND N/A
PIT @ NYJ +3
NO @ TEN N/A
BAL @ CLE +10
CIN @ MIA -1
JAX @ ATL -7.5
DET @ DEN -7
OAK @ LAC -6
DAL @ PHI +2.5
ARI @ SEA -9.5
KC @ CHI +5
GB @ MIN -4.5
— Odds Shark (@OddsShark) December 17, 2019
Arizona Cardinals cover on the road
The Cardinals are heading on the road to take on their division rival Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are laying a massive number against Kyler Murray and this explosive air-raid offense. I cannot fathom this Seattle team being able to cover 9.5 points, even if they are at home.
Home field advantage has slowly disappeared for this Seahawks team over the years. They have been a bad bet at home this season. While they handled Arizona 27-10 on the road last time they played, they’ve yet to win any home game by more than a touchdown. In fact, 10 of their 11 wins have been decided by a one-score margin.
Arizona, on the other hand, has been stellar on the road. They are 5-1 against the spread on the road this year. They are coming off a big win against Cleveland, where they finally got the run game going with Kenyan Drake. Seattle has an issue with their defensive line with Al Woods getting suspended this week. If Arizona can continue with their run game success, they can keep this game close.
Even if Seattle can get up by double digits, Arizona can cover the back door. Seattle will be looking ahead to their big game against San Francisco next week, and Arizona will come in and cover this number. If you are feeling wild, a little money line sprinkle could be interesting.
Week 16 NFL picks: Arizona Cardinals +9.5 (1 unit)
Terrible Team Teaser
It is always a terrifying thought to back either one of these two teams, but this week, we will tempt the fates and put our money behind the Cincinnati Bengals and the New York Giants! Obviously, not to win their games, but instead, to simply cover the teaser. We will be bringing up the Bengals to +7.5 and the Giants to +9.
At the end of the day, the Bengals are a terrible football team. But this week, they are going up an equally bad football team in the Miami Dolphins. Cincinnati has the number one pick overall basically locked up, so a win here will not change anything. Andy Dalton is auditioning for a starting job somewhere next year, and he should be able to tear apart this awful Miami secondary.
The Bengals have outgained their opponents in three straight games as their rush offense has shined, racking up 343 rushing yards against the Browns and Patriots. Their defense has played well in recent weeks and ranks third in red-zone percentage.
Bringing the New York Giants up to +9 against the Washington Redskins should limit the variance whenever you put your money on Daniel Jones. Jones is likely to make a mistake or two, but I don’t think Haskins and this Redskins team will be able to take advantage.
The Giants don’t do much well, but one area where they shine is defending the run, where they rank fifth in yards per attempt. The Redskins love to run the ball, and I doubt they have success against this defense.
Week 16 NFL picks: New York Giants +9/Cincinatti +7.5 (1 unit) Also, Joe Mixon over 87.5 rushing yards (1 unit)
Head to head: Jason vs. Ryan
In our weekly head to head matchup, where Ryan currently holds an 8-3 lead, the cohosts settled on the Philadelphia and Dallas matchup. Dallas will be heading to the city of brotherly love as two-point road favorites. This is the matchup that will likely decide which of the two will be NFC East champions and will be heading to the NFL playoffs.
Jason, who is an Eagles fan by default for living in the city, believes that these Cowboys, led by Jason Garrett, will fall apart in the big moment. Ryan, a Dallas fan, believes that the Cowboys, behind Dak Prescott, will be able to get their fifth straight win against the Eagles.
Both teams are coming into this matchup sporting disappointing records. Both of them had high hopes for the year, and now one will likely make the postseason with the worst record out of all the NFC playoff teams. For all of Garrett’s faults, he coaches well against NFC East teams.
Philly is facing a slew of injuries at the receiver position, but the guys stepping in are playing well. Dallas has one of the best offenses in football, but they struggle in the red zone. If Prescott is completely healthy and the Cowboys can take advantage of this bad Eagles secondary, they should win easily. If they struggle to throw and need to rely on the run against one of the best run defenses in the NFL, they will likely lose.
Week 16 NFL picks: Dallas Cowboys -2 (1 unit)