The Kansas City Chiefs currently have the longest active streak of winning their division at seven years in a row, and as long as they have Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Andy Reid, we shouldn’t expect anything to change. At DraftKings, only the San Francisco 49ers have shorter odds to win their division than the Chiefs do to win the AFC West this season.
With the Chiefs basically written in (with permanent sharpie) as the 2023 AFC West champions, how might the rest of the division shake out? In this AFC West preview, we break down the betting odds, give out picks and predictions, and more.
Be sure to check out our other divisional odds, picks, and predictions: AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
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2022 was the first season in Mahomes’ career in which the Chiefs were expected to be challenged to win the AFC West. However, we learned once again to never, under any circumstances, pick another team to win this division.
The Chiefs swept their division rivals and went 14-3 to win the AFC West and eventually the Super Bowl. Although they lost OT Orlando Brown and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster in free agency and are currently in a contract dispute with DT Chris Jones, there is virtually zero skepticism about the Chiefs winning this division yet again.
After blowing a 27-point lead in the playoffs, the Chargers enter 2023 with aspirations to at least win a playoff game for the first time in Justin Herbert’s career. They have replaced offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi with former Cowboys OC Kellen Moore and drafted WR Quentin Johnston in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Defensively, they hope to have DE Joey Bosa healthy for the entire season after he missed 12 games in 2022. On paper, this team has a lot of talent on both sides of the football, and after two straight seasons ending with great disappointment, head coach Brandon Staley has a lot of pressure to deliver in 2023.
The Denver Broncos are hoping that their disastrous 2022 season was mostly a byproduct of horrible coaching and bad injury luck. With Sean Payton replacing Nathaniel Hackett, can Russell Wilson bounce back after a nightmare first season in Denver?
They were very active in free agency in making additions on both sides of the ball, but the injury bug has already bitten them, particularly at wide receiver. Even still, this team will be much better coached under Payton this season, and this defense is one of the most talented in the NFL.
The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new starting quarterback for the first time in 10 years, with Jimmy Garoppolo replacing Derek Carr. Despite having one of the best RB-WR combinations in Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams, as well as one of the elite pass rushers in Maxx Crosby, expectations are fairly low for this Raiders team in 2023, as they’re projected to finish last in the AFC West.
Live AFC West Odds
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Bearman: I can’t fault anyone for sticking with Mahomes to lead the NFL and division in anything. There’s a reason he is a perennial MVP candidate. But you won’t find any betting value on Mahomes.
Last year, Herbert was second in the NFL in passing, finishing 511 yards behind Mahomes, who ran away with the MVP award. The year before, Herbert led the AFC, including Mahomes, in passing.
Herbert already passed Andrew Luck for most passing yards in the first three years of his career and now gets Moore as his new OC. During the last four seasons under Moore, the Cowboys’ offense ranked in the top four in points per game and yards per game.
Will Mahomes lead the way again? Possibly, but the difference is you are getting +200 odds that Herbert leads the division in passing, and I lose those odds better for a guy who has gone toe-to-toe with the MVP. Plus, K.C. has a much better chance of potentially resting Mahomes in Week 18 than the Chargers do with Herbert.
Pick: Justin Herbert to lead the AFC West in passing yards (+200 at FanDuel)
Soppe: There’s a pretty clear tier drop-off in this division, as two of the top-10 in Super Bowl odds reside at the top of this group in the Chiefs and Chargers, followed by the Broncos and Raiders, two teams with far lesser expectations entering the 2023 season.
Say what you will about Garoppolo, but the dude wins football games. Is it pretty? Not always. Does it light up your fantasy football scoreboard? Almost never. But he does win, and I’ll back him to do just enough of that here.
MORE: Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team
The Raiders and Broncos bookend the season with one another, and the runout in those games is perfect for Vegas. Their Week 1 matchup is at Mile High, and that means they have extended time to acclimate to the conditions. It also means that their Week 18 matchup comes at home in a controlled environment, something this team is more accustomed to than Denver.
One other scheduling note: Generally speaking, teams play well coming out of a bye and on long rest. Well, the Broncos get an extended week off of their bye … in Buffalo. They aren’t winning that game, and that makes the scheduling advantage that comes with a week off no longer advantageous. I think it comes down to the wire, but the Raiders win a game or two more and cash my ticket.
Pick: Denver Broncos to finish in fourth place in the AFC West (+210 at DraftKings)