Every year, there’s one, maybe two divisions that have the potential to send every single team to the playoffs. In 2025, that’s the AFC West. As long as Patrick Mahomes stays healthy, the Kansas City Chiefs should be a shoo-in for the postseason.
The Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers are coming off playoff appearances in 2024 and seem to have improved thanks to smart offseason decisions. And then there’s the Las Vegas Raiders, who haven’t made the playoffs since 2021 and were the lone team from the AFC West that was left out a season ago. But even they harbor hopes of making it this year, thanks to a brand new regime and a backfield offensively.
With that being said, what do our projections say about each team making the playoffs? What about overall record, division win probability, and Super Bowl win probability? It’s all below, complete with a full analysis of each team as they head into the 2025 season.
4) Las Vegas Raiders
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- Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.4-9.6
- Division Win Probability: 6.5%
- Playoff Probability: 22.9%
- Super Bowl Probability: 0.5%
The Las Vegas Raiders had a transformative offseason in several key areas, beginning at the top with general manager John Spytek and head coach Pete Carroll. From there, they shored up the quarterback position with the trade for Geno Smith and drafted Heisman runner-up running back Ashton Jeanty with the fourth pick in the draft.
Film breakdown of Ashton Jeanty vs 49ers, Raiders (preseason) home debut pic.twitter.com/3IUIamByt7
— Alex Monfreda (@AlexMonfreda) August 17, 2025
Defensive coordinator Patrick Graham is well-renowned around the league and was a holdover with the new regime, but he’ll have his work cut out for him this season. Maxx Crosby headlines the defensive line, but there are question marks galore within the linebacker and secondary units.
That’s likely a significant factor in why our metrics have the Raiders, despite several positive changes, having just a 6.5% chance of winning the division and just under 23% chance of making the playoffs.
However, finishing seven wins would be a three-win improvement from 2024’s poor 4-13 record. But for Carroll, a winning record and a spot in the playoffs are the only barometers of success.
3) Los Angeles Chargers
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.2-7.8
- Division Win Probability: 23.9%
- Playoff Probability: 55.5%
- Super Bowl Probability: 3.5%
The Los Angeles Chargers went 11-6 last season, but were exposed in the playoffs as they clearly lacked playmakers on offense outside of rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey. They drafted North Carolina standout running back Omarion Hampton to shore up the running back, while also welcoming back longtime Charger, wide receiver Keenan Allen.
The defense, led by defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, returns much of the production from a unit that allowed the second-fewest points per game last season. They hit on two fifth-round cornerbacks in 2024 in Cam Hart and Tarheeb Still, and both will be expected to take another step forward this season.
Despite all the potential for improvement, our projections demonstrate that they’ll finish 9-8 and have a near 50/50 chance of making the playoffs. However, with quarterback Justin Herbert, who finished last season with 23 touchdown passes and just three interceptions, there’s a chance the Chargers could surprise and realize their 3.5% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
2) Denver Broncos
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 9.6-7.4
- Division Win Probability: 31.1%
- Playoff Probability: 63.7%
- Super Bowl Probability: 5.0%
The head coach-quarterback marriage of Sean Payton and Bo Nix proved significant success in Nix’s rookie year, as he tossed the second-most touchdown passes for a rookie quarterback in league history.
While the offense taking another step forward will be pertinent to success in 2025, the defense is ultimately the headliner for the Denver Broncos. The leader in sacks (63) last year, while also having the Defensive Player of the Year in Pat Surtain II in the secondary, the Broncos’ defense got even better this offseason.
They added a pair of former San Francisco 49ers in safety, former All-Pro Talanoa Hufanga, and rangy linebacker Dre Greenlaw to fortify those position groups. They also locked in defense end Zach Allen on a rich long-term extension after he registered a career-high 8.5 sacks last season.
Our metrics suggest Denver is the Kansas City Chiefs’ most significant threat to win the division, with a 31.3% chance of doing so. If Denver wins, it would be the first time since 2015 that someone other than the Chiefs has won the division.
With Payton, Nix, and a physical, tenacious defense, the Broncos are poised for a breakout season after getting bounced in the first round of the playoffs a season ago.
1) Kansas City Chiefs
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 10.0-7.0
- Division Win Probability: 38.5%
- Playoff Probability: 70.7%
- Super Bowl Probability: 7.7%
Despite returning most of a roster that went 15-2 and all the way to the Super Bowl, we project Kansas City to regress by five wins in 2025. That’s likely to be due to their 12 wins (including postseason) that came within one score, an NFL record.
While the quartet of head coach Andy Reid, quarterback Patrick Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce, and kicker Harrison Butker has been highly reliable in the clutch in seasons past, it’s inevitable for them to drop at least a couple of one-score games in 2025.
Another backshoulder TD toss from Mahomes this preseason.. This one to Rice.
Fantastic spot throw EARLY in the route. pic.twitter.com/iusvjPlLvg
— Matt Lane (@Matty_KCSN) August 23, 2025
Realistically, the league would be surprised if the Chiefs finished with a 10-7 record. However, that still gives them a 70.7% chance to make the playoffs, a spot where Kansas City has thrived.
