The Pittsburgh Steelers took down the Baltimore Ravens in Week 11, winning their fifth straight game while taking a commanding lead in the AFC North race.
As the 18-16 final score indicated, Sunday’s contest was a tight battle befitting the division. Russell Wilson and Co. hung on for a victory after Lamar Jackson failed to convert a game-tying two-point attempt with roughly a minute remaining in regulation.
What does the AFC North race look like after 11 weeks? Let’s use Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor to evaluate postseason chances for the Steelers and Ravens.
Pittsburgh Steelers’ Playoff Chances After Week 11 Win
The Steelers moved to 8-2 by defeating the Ravens on Sunday in Week 11. Pittsburgh is now two games ahead of 7-4 Baltimore and holds a crucial head-to-head tiebreaker.
Their chance of winning the AFC North after beating the Ravens is 53.7%, up from roughly 40% entering Sunday’s game.
Before beating Baltimore, the Steelers had a 92% shot of making the postseason in any capacity. Those odds are now up to 93.5% at the end of Week 11’s action.
Here’s how likely Pittsburgh is to land in each of the AFC’s seeding slots:
- No. 1 seed: 5.6%
- No. 2 seed: 23.0%
- No. 3 seed: 22.2%
- No. 4 seed: 2.9%
- No. 5 seed: 18.2%
- No. 6 seed: 14.4%
- No. 7 seed: 7.3%
The Steelers have the AFC’s third-best odds for the No. 1 seed, trailing the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, who went head-to-head in Week 11.
Moreover, PFN’s model gives Pittsburgh a 3.0% chance of winning its seventh Super Bowl trophy in February.
Steelers’ Remaining 2024 Schedule
- Week 12: at Cleveland Browns
- Week 13: at Cincinnati Bengals
- Week 14: vs. Cleveland Browns
- Week 15: at Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 16: at Baltimore Ravens
- Week 17: vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 18: vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh didn’t play a single AFC North game until Week 11. Its next three games will come inside the division, while the Steelers will travel to face the Ravens again in Week 16.
The Steelers have the NFL’s eighth-most difficult schedule over the final seven weeks of the 2024 season.
Baltimore Ravens’ Playoff Chances After Week 11 Loss
Despite falling to Pittsburgh on Sunday, Baltimore still has a 97.0% chance of making the playoffs this season.
However, their shot of claiming their second consecutive AFC North title took a substantial hit in Week 11.
According to PFN’s model, the Ravens have a 45.9% chance of winning the division after losing to the Steelers. By dropping Sunday’s game, they lost roughly 20 percentage points’ worth of divisional win probability.
Here’s how likely Baltimore is to land in each of the AFC’s seeding slots:
- No. 1 seed: 2.9%
- No. 2 seed: 19.2%
- No. 3 seed: 20.6%
- No. 4 seed: 3.2%
- No. 5 seed: 25.0%
- No. 6 seed: 17.7%
- No. 7 seed: 8.4%
While the division is still in play, a Wild Card berth now looks like the most likely postseason path for the Ravens.
Ravens’ Remaining 2024 Schedule
- Week 12: at Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 13: vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 14: BYE
- Week 15: at New York Giants
- Week 16: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Week 17: at Houston Texans
- Week 18: vs. Cleveland Browns
The Ravens’ upcoming schedule is even more challenging than the Steelers’. Pro Football Network’s model ranks Baltimore’s remaining slate as the NFL’s sixth-most difficult schedule.
While John Harbaugh’s squad will get another shot at the Steelers in Week 16, they’ll have to hope for some help to win the AFC North. Even if Baltimore wins out, it will need Pittsburgh to drop at least one additional game (in addition to losing in Week 16).
