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    AFC North Playoff Scenarios: Updated Postseason Odds for Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals

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    What does the AFC North look like entering MNF in Week 12? Playoff chances and scenarios for the Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals.

    While the Pittsburgh Steelers were hopeful to extend their division lead on Thursday Night Football, they were upset by the Cleveland Browns to begin Week 12. Pittsburgh’s loss allows the Baltimore Ravens to remain in the hunt for the divisional title in the AFC North following their win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 12.

    Let’s use Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor to evaluate the Steelers’, Ravens’, and Cincinnati Bengals’ postseason chances after Week 12.

    PFN Playoff Predictor
    Try out Pro Football Network's FREE playoff predictor, where you can simulate every game of the NFL season and see how it all shakes out!

    Pittsburgh Steelers’ Playoff Chances in Week 12

    The Steelers moved to 8-3 following their loss to the Browns on Thursday in Week 12. Pittsburgh failed to extend its lead over 8-4 Baltimore, yet the Steelers still hold a crucial head-to-head tiebreaker.

    Their chance of winning the AFC North after losing to the Browns is 41.7%, down from roughly 69% entering Thursday’s game.

    After losing on TNF, Pittsburgh’s odds of making the playoffs decreased to 91.8%.

    Here’s how likely Pittsburgh is to land in each of the AFC’s seeding slots:

    • No. 1 seed: 2.3%
    • No. 2 seed: 15.9%
    • No. 3 seed: 22.3%
    • No. 4 seed: 1.2%
    • No. 5 seed: 24.7%
    • No. 6 seed: 15.9%
    • No. 7 seed: 9.5%

    The Steelers have the AFC’s fourth-best odds for the No. 1 seed, trailing the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Ravens.

    Moreover, PFN’s model gives Pittsburgh a 4.6% chance of winning its seventh Super Bowl trophy in February.

    Steelers’ Remaining 2024 Schedule

    • Week 13: at Cincinnati Bengals
    • Week 14: vs. Cleveland Browns
    • Week 15: at Philadelphia Eagles
    • Week 16: at Baltimore Ravens
    • Week 17: vs. Kansas City Chiefs
    • Week 18: vs. Cincinnati Bengals

    Pittsburgh didn’t play a single AFC North game until Week 11. Its next two games will come inside the division, while the Steelers will travel to face the Ravens again in Week 16.

    The Steelers have the NFL’s 10th-most-difficult remaining schedule for the 2024 season.

    Baltimore Ravens’ Playoff Chances in Week 12

    After defeating the Chargers in Week 12, Baltimore (8-4) has a 98.3% chance of making the playoffs this season.

    PFN’s model still likes the Ravens over the Steelers in the AFC North. Baltimore has a 58.0% chance of winning the division following the Ravens’ victory over the Chargers during its prime-time matchup.

    Here’s how likely Baltimore is to land in each of the AFC’s seeding slots:

    • No. 1 seed: 3.4%
    • No. 2 seed: 22.7%
    • No. 3 seed: 30.6%
    • No. 4 seed: 1.2%
    • No. 5 seed: 22.6%
    • No. 6 seed: 12.3%
    • No. 7 seed: 5.4%

    Ravens’ Remaining 2024 Schedule

    • Week 13: vs. Philadelphia Eagles
    • Week 14: BYE
    • Week 15: at New York Giants
    • Week 16: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
    • Week 17: at Houston Texans
    • Week 18: vs. Cleveland Browns

    The Ravens’ upcoming schedule is even more challenging than the Steelers’. Pro Football Network’s model ranks Baltimore’s remaining slate as the NFL’s ninth-most-difficult schedule.

    While John Harbaugh’s squad will get another shot at the Steelers in Week 16, they’ll have to hope for some help to win the AFC North. Even if Baltimore wins out, it will need Pittsburgh to drop at least one additional game (in addition to losing in Week 16).

    Cincinnati Bengals’ Playoff Chances in Week 12

    While the Bengals fell to 4-7 in Week 11, Joe Burrow and Co. aren’t yet eliminated from the AFC playoff race. Cincinnati enjoyed a much-needed bye week in Week 12.

    Still, they’ll likely need to enter the dance via a Wild Card slot. Following Week 12, Cincinnati has just a 0.3% chance of winning the AFC North.

    How likely are the Bengals to make the playoffs in any capacity? PFN’s model gives them roughly a 7.8% shot.

    Here’s how likely Cincinnati is to land in each of the AFC’s seeding slots:

    • No. 1 seed: <0.1%
    • No. 2 seed: <0.1%
    • No. 3 seed: 0.2%
    • No. 4 seed: <0.1%
    • No. 5 seed: 0.5%
    • No. 6 seed: 1.9%
    • No. 7 seed: 5.0%

    Bengals’ Remaining 2024 Schedule

    At best, the Bengals can afford to lose one more game. Going 5-1 to close the season would leave Cincinnati with a 9-8 record, which might be enough to land an AFC Wild Card berth.

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