Indianapolis Colts WR Adonai Mitchell is joining an offense that has plenty of fantasy football upside in Anthony Richardson’s second season. Michael Pittman Jr. is the clear alpha in this passing game, but there should be enough production to sustain at least one more pass catcher. Can the rookie establish himself as the primary secondary option?
Adonai Mitchell’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
It’s only natural to be concerned about the production of a non-featured pass catcher in an offense that features a mobile quarterback. In today’s NFL, however, that shouldn’t be your initial reaction.
Here are the top five qualified quarterbacks in 2023 in terms of percentage of fantasy points scored with their legs — a list Richardson figures to join if he can remain healthy — and how their top two pass catchers faired on a per-game basis:
- Jalen Hurts: WR8 and WR20
- Justin Fields: WR9 and TE9
- Josh Allen: WR13 and TE14
- Lamar Jackson: WR31 and TE5
- Trevor Lawrence: WR27 and TE4
As you can see, four of those five produced two weekly starts at their respective positions. The other (Allen) wasn’t far off despite operating a two-TE system (it’s plenty reasonable to think that if Buffalo committed to one tight end, that player would have finished as a top-12 player at the position).
Does that help calm your nerves?
Now it’s a matter of winning that WR2 role for Mitchell because asking Richardson to support three pass catchers is overly optimistic. Josh Downs operated primarily in the slot during his rookie season (77.9% of his routes), and that figures to again be his role.
Colts WR Adonai Mitchell is BREAKING ANKLES at camp 😳
pic.twitter.com/Q4WQgIYE8z— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) July 31, 2024
Mitchell has to beat out Alec Pierce convincingly for the perimeter role opposite Pittman. And he has a very good chance to do that sooner rather than later.
Pierce flashed the ability to make some splash plays, but he ranked dead last of 80 receivers (minimum 50 targets) in targets earned — and it wasn’t close. He checked in at 10.8%, while no other receiver was at or below 13%.
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Pierce will likely have his moments in 2024, but heading into the season, Mitchell should be labeled as the favorite to slot ahead of him on the depth chart.
As for what you’re getting from the second-round pick out of Texas, Pro Football Network Draft Analyst Ian Cummings had these strengths noted in his pre-draft analysis:
- Long and lean receiver with streamlined athleticism and wiry play strength.
- Explosive long-strider with the burst and speed to stack defenders out of stems.
- Has the brisk lateral twitch and foot speed to offset DBs with meticulous releases.
- Incredibly flexible mover at his size, who can pinch exceedingly tight angles at stems.
- Possesses the flexibility necessary to employ curvilinear acceleration on rounded breaks.
- Can suddenly chop his feet and hinge outward on a dime after breaking inside on slants.
- Uses his length with precision to compound and create late-snap separation.
There’s a lot to like in that profile. While I like Mitchell to hold off Pierce, I do think consistency could be an issue in his rookie season. Pittman is going to soak up plenty of targets every week, and Downs is a threat to out-earn him based on matchups.
Combine that with the potential for the Richardson/Jonathan Taylor tandem to rack up 150+ rushing yards on any given week, and it’s hard to project Mitchell for top-36 numbers every week.
In his ADP range (Round 13), I find myself landing on Joshua Palmer (potentially the WR1 in his offense) more often. I also lean toward offenses with a more proven pocket passer — so that means investing in Romeo Doubs, Mike Williams, or even the ever-maddening Gabe Davis.
I have nothing against Mitchell, but he profiles as more of a matchup-based DFS play for me than someone who is routinely on the redraft Flex radar.
Should You Select Adonai Mitchell at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 169th Overall (WR62)
- Passing-Game Contributors: Michael Pittman Jr. is the clear WR1 in the Colts’ offense, with 109 receptions for 1,152 yards and four touchdowns in 2023. Josh Downs had moments as a rookie, particularly with Gardner Minshew, but doesn’t have the WR2 role locked down. Alec Pierce struggled mightily, making room for Mitchell to step in.
- Mitchell’s Prospect Profile: Mitchell enters the NFL with ideal size (6’2”, 205 pounds) and vertical speed (4.34-second 40-yard dash), making him a perfect fit as an outside playmaker in the Colts’ offense. He also showcases fluidity and creativity as a route runner, allowing him to consistently create separation.
- Snap Share Opportunity: If Mitchell can secure a significant snap share, he should easily surpass Alec Pierce’s underwhelming production of 32 receptions for 514 yards. His physical tools and schematic fit set him up for a potentially productive rookie year.
- Volume Uncertainty: While Mitchell has the talent and opportunity to be fantasy-relevant, the volume of targets he will receive is uncertain, especially with Anthony Richardson’s limited experience as a passer and the presence of Pittman and Downs.
- ADP Analysis: Mitchell’s current ADP of WR62 puts him alongside players like Joshua Palmer, Xavier Legette, and Jerry Jeudy. His explosive playmaking ability and route-running savvy make him a high-upside option, but his target volume is a question mark.
- Final Verdict: Mitchell offers significant upside at his current ADP, especially for fantasy managers looking for a late-round flier with WR2 potential. While there’s risk involved due to the uncertainty of Richardson’s passing and the competition for targets, Mitchell’s talent makes him a worthwhile pick in the 13th-14th round. If you prefer a safer option, consider a more established veteran like Jakobi Meyers, but Mitchell’s ceiling makes him an intriguing choice as your WR5.