The New York Jets were one of the most hyped teams throughout the 2024 season. They went all in on ending the NFL‘s longest active playoff drought, with Aaron Rodgers returning from a torn Achilles and former teammate Davante Adams acquired via an early-season trade.
But after a 5-12 flameout that saw middling offensive production, the Rodgers era has come to an end in New York. What’s the outlook for the future Hall of Fame quarterback, Adams, and the Jets in 2025?
Aaron Rodgers’ 2024 Season and 2025 Outlook
Rodgers finished 21st in PFSN’s QB+ rankings with a 72.2 (C-) grade. On the season, Rodgers had a -0.02 EPA/DB (27th), ranked 36th from a clean pocket (0.07 EPA/DB), and converted just 33.5% of the time on third down (29th). His 6.2 nYPA ranked 30th and was very low, considering he was the beneficiary of 5.8 YAC/Cp, which ranked ninth last season.
This was actually an improvement over his last full season in 2022 with the Packers. That year, he graded out at a 68.0 (D+).
Beyond the QB+ numbers, Rodgers had a 2.5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, his third-worst figure in 16 seasons as a starter behind 2022 and 2008. That included a 4.8% touchdown rate, his third lowest as a starter behind the 2019 and 2008 seasons.
Rodgers averaged a meager 0.07 EPA per dropback from clean pockets. That ranked 35th out of 36 qualifying QBs, ahead of only Will Levis. Part of the issue was Rodgers not really willing to hold the ball anymore. He had the sixth-fastest average time to throw in 2024 (2.59 seconds).
Rodgers will play most of 2025 at age 41 (he turns 42 on Dec. 2). Only four quarterbacks have started double-digit games at age 41 or older:
- Tom Brady (five times)
- Drew Brees (2020)
- Brett Favre (2010)
- Warren Moon (1998)
Brees, Favre, and Moon’s age-41 campaigns were either their final season or the last time they were the primary starter for a team. Brady is the only quarterback to reach the Pro Bowl at age 41 or older.
If Rodgers is released with a post-June 1 designation as expected when the new league year begins Wednesday, the Jets will be able to split his $49 million dead-cap charge over the next two seasons — $14 million in 2025 and the remaining $35 million in 2026.
Rodgers’ Fit With the Giants
Could Rodgers continue to play his home games at MetLife Stadium? The Giants have a well-known quarterback hole but pick third overall in the draft. If Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders go off the board to the Titans and Browns, the Giants could be left without a good quarterback option.
However, Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen could be incentivized to take a swing on a veteran quarterback instead of waiting for a rookie to develop. Owner John Mara’s comments after the season made it clear that both Daboll and Schoen are on thin ice, which means they could opt for a win-now option in hopes of earning another season.
Rodgers would have more upside than just about any veteran-quarterback option in free agency, except Sam Darnold (who also had a rough Jets stint). The Giants ranked 31st in PFSN’s Offense+ metric, ahead of only the Browns, and will likely seek to add win-now talent to improve that side of the ball.
In that vein, sometimes, it’s important to not overthink things. Your eyes have been underwhelmed by New York in recent years and there is significant statistical support to back that up.
Fewest points per drive over the past four seasons
- Carolina Panthers: 1.57
- New York Jets: 1.51
- New York Giants: 1.46
For reference, the NFL average over that stretch is 1.97.
In addition to need, there is a design trend working in his favor. QBs who lack mobility (Rodgers has just 56 rush attempts over his past two seasons) generally require quick-hitting offenses in order to maximize what they do well.
Since Daboll took over, the Giants rank fourth in terms of lowest average depth of throw (11.6% below league average). Factoring into that plan moving forward is the presence of a potentially franchise-altering receiver learning the NFL ropes — a situation we’ve seen Rodgers in with regularity. From Davante Adams to Jordy Nelson, we’ve seen Rodgers connect with an elite target and produce big numbers alongside a singular trusted star.
Malik Nabers! Tightrope TD on his 109th catch of the season
📺: #NYGvsPHI on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/Ozbj6YkmhA— NFL (@NFL)
Malik Nabers ranked behind only Puka Nacua in terms of target rate last season (30.9%) despite no NFL experience and very little help from his supporting cast. The 2024 first-round pick also finished with a stellar 109-1,204-7 receiving line on 170 targets across 15 games.
Given Rodgers’ elite body of work over his nearly two decades in the league — and how many standout seasons he’s helped facilitate for his No. 1 targets over many of those years — a partnership with a player of Nabers’ talent could well be a highly productive one.
