Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones is coming off a down year that saw him cede significant work to AJ Dillon. Will Jones bounce back in 2022, or is Dillon prepared to stake his claim to the lead-back role? What is Jones’ fantasy football outlook for the 2022 season, and what is his ADP in fantasy drafts?
Aaron Jones’ fantasy outlook for 2022
Following back-to-back elite RB1 seasons in 2019 and 2020, where Jones finished inside the top four, in 2021, he fell to the bottom of the RB1 pack. Jones was still an RB1, but just barely. He averaged 15.3 PPR fantasy points per game last season and saw his role change considerably.
On the season, Jones recorded a 58% snap share, which is only a slight tick down from the previous two seasons. However, a deeper dive reveals something far more concerning.
From Weeks 1-9, Jones was the clear lead back and Dillon the backup. Dillon did not exceed a 42% snap share in any game over that span. However, in Week 10, something changed.
From that point forward, Dillon played at least 50% of the snaps in six of the final eight games. Over that span, Dillon averaged 13.8 carries per game against Jones’ 9.2. Essentially, Dillon became the lead runner, and Jones transitioned into more of a receiving role.
Jones averaged four targets per game from Week 10 onward, while Dillon averaged just 2.6. It’s worth noting, though, that Dillon did have games of five and six targets, so it’s not like he’s a stiff in the passing game. With that said, I fully expect Jones to significantly out-target Dillon this season.
Jones did sprain his MCL in Week 11, and I suspect many fantasy managers will attribute the shift in usage to the injury. However, the transition was already in the works the week prior. The injury merely accelerated the change. The big question for 2022 is how valuable is Jones if he’s splitting snaps almost evenly with Dillon? Can Jones still be an RB1 in fantasy?
How the Packers’ depth chart impacts Aaron Jones’ fantasy projection for the season
Normally, a team losing a wide receiver doesn’t impact the running back much. At most, there would be reduced touchdown upside due to the offense getting worse overall. On the Packers, Aaron Rodgers keeps this offense elite, even without Davante Adams. The question is, who picks up the slack?
Adams leaves behind the second-highest target share in the league at 31.5%. His 169 targets have to go somewhere, and the only meaningful additions the Packers made to their wide receiver corps was drafting Christian Watson in the second round and Romeo Doubs in the fourth. Allen Lazard is likely to lead this team in targets, but there’s a very realistic chance Jones could be second.
Adams missed one game last season. And in that game, Jones saw by far his largest target count of the season with 11. One game is certainly not enough to project forward, but the Packers’ way of dealing with Adams being out was to utilize Jones more as a receiver. With Dillon now the Packers’ primary runner, we may see the two on the field at the same time a decent amount this season.
What Jones gains his targets, he may lose in touchdowns
Jones only rushed for four touchdowns last season. Just one of them came after Week 9, coinciding with Dillon’s ascent. Following Jones’ return from his MCL sprain, Dillon out-touched Jones 17-5 in the red zone. I fully expect Dillon to be the goal-line back this season, capping Jones’ TD upside.
Jones has been surprisingly dependent on touchdowns in his career. He’s scored at least 10 touchdowns in three consecutive seasons and has never posted an RB1 week without scoring. Jones averages just 7.2 ppg over his career in games where he doesn’t find the end zone. Prior to last season, Jones’ career-high in receiving touchdowns was three. Yet, he caught six last season.
If Jones is going to be an RB1, he’ll need to set career highs in target share and receiving touchdowns. Either that or I will need to be very wrong about Dillon taking over the majority of the early-down and goal-line work.
Jones’ ADP for 2022
Jones is going in the region of the 10th to 12th running back off the board, with a mid-to-late second-round ADP. If you’ve been following any of my work or listening to PFN’s Premier Fantasy Football Podcast, you already know how I feel about that. In PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings, Jones sits 21st overall as the RB12, thanks largely to how high my colleague Ben Rolfe remains on Jones based on his target upside.
Jones is one of my bigger fades of the season at his ADP. I love the player. He still has top-five upside in the event of a Dillon injury. Unfortunately, I have a hard time seeing him finishing as an RB1 this year if Dillon stays healthy.
Where Jones goes, I much prefer a slew of wide receivers even bleeding into the third round. As for the running backs, there are four that typically go after Jones that I would take before him.
I won’t go so far as to say I’m out on Jones because he’s still a very talented running back on an Aaron Rodgers offense. However, there will almost always be someone who likes Jones more than me.
