The Seahawks made their feelings toward Jaxon Smith-Njigba well-known this offseason. Not only did they offload their other starting receivers, but they also invested big at the quarterback position. Given that the receiver room is shallow behind JSN, the money they sank into Sam Darnold was clearly a bet on their top WR elevating the offense as a whole.
Should their willingness to back Smith-Njigba as an elite player in this game motivate you to use one of your first three picks on him?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Fantasy Outlook
This feels like a low-risk, high-reward investment, and there simply aren’t many of those to be had in the third-round range, which is where JSN usually settles.
After hauling in 63 of 93 targets as a rookie, the former Buckeye racked up 100 catches on 137 looks last season, establishing himself as a genuine threat at all levels.
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Outside the tippy top of the receiver board, is there a receiver with more secure volume than Seattle’s WR1? Gone are franchise cornerstones in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, not to mention a quarterback in Geno Smith that had some moments during his tenure, but finished QB15 in our QB+ grading metrics.
I can’t say with confidence that Sam Darnold, with one good year on his resume and now removed from the insulation of Kevin O’Connell, will be able to repeat his success from 2024. Still, I view Smith’s average quality of play to be on the low end of what I expect from Darnold, and that should be enough to land Smith-Njigba as a PPR WR2.
Sure, a 32-year-old Cooper Kupp was brought in to take some of the pressure off of Smith-Njigba, and he might succeed in accomplishing that, but I’m not considering him a significant threat to take meaningful food off the plate of JSN.
Over the past two seasons, Kupp’s yards per route are down 32.8% from the two years prior, and his 20.4% red-zone target rate represents a fall off a cliff given his elite career number of 27.9%.
Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans are veteran receivers in this range who have seen their best days come and go. Tetairoa McMillan is an interesting prospect who could do big things in Carolina. Without NFL reps under his belt and just as many question marks under center and in terms of supporting cast, I’m happy to side with JSN in that head-to-head.
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I find myself starting RB-WR or WR-RB in most of my early drafts, which leaves me open to just about any position in Round 3. Smith-Njigba has been an at-target cost for me that I’m happy to land if the Flex players I assign a higher ceiling to (Bucky Irving, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown types) are off the board. I think there’s very little risk of losing ground on the field by picking up JSN in the third round, and you know what they say on Wall Street …
You don’t go broke making a profit.
Dan Fornek’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Fantasy Projection
Jaxon Smith-Njigba returned from a terrible rookie season to provide a strong fantasy season in 2024. Smith-Njigba caught 100 of 137 targets for 1,130 yards and six touchdowns as he took complete control of the slot position in his second season (701 slot snaps, WR1). The second-year receiver finished as the WR18 in PPR points per game (14.9).
Smith-Njigba made the most of his quick passing game and open-field elusiveness to have a strong season. He was 79th among receivers in average depth of target (8.9) but finished seventh in yards after catch (477).
The Seahawks overhauled their offense this offseason, releasing Tyler Lockett and trading DK Metcalf, replacing them with Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The team also drafted young pass catchers in tight end Elijah Arroyo and wide receiver Tory Horton in the draft. The most significant move, however, came when Seattle traded Geno Smith to sign Sam Darnold in free agency.
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Darnold is coming off a career year, but has historically been mediocre to below-average. However, Smith-Njigba’s fantasy value seems insulated due to his high-volume target share in the offense. The quantity of targets will be there for the veteran receiver, but the quality may be worse than in 2024.
If Darnold can replicate his 2024 performance, Smith-Njigba has the workload to push into PPR’s top 12 wide receivers. Even with bad quarterback play, a top 24 finish in fantasy is likely in 2025.
