Just 12 months ago, the story surrounding Sam Darnold was whether his presence would tank the value of Justin Jefferson and company. Now, he’s inked to a nine-figure contract with expectations attached to every trip to the bank.
In a different situation, can Darnold put up similar numbers and prove to be a lineup staple?
Sam Darnold Fantasy Outlook
What are we really supposed to do here? I love data as much as anyone, and I’m just as confused as you. We entered 2024 with a nice sample size (66 games with three different franchises), showing Darnold as an actual bust. Not just a disappointment, a bust.
- 2019 to 2023: 59.7% complete, 78.3 passer rating, 1.1 TD/INT ratio
- 2024: 66.2% complete, 102.5 passer rating, 2.9 TD/INT ratio
With zero moving pieces, 2025 was going to be a difficult projection for Darnold, as he is a high-pedigree player, but still with more bad than good on his resume.
But, of course, everything has changed. Gone is the Kevin O’Connell system and the greatness of Justin Jefferson. Gone is the hyper-scoring environment that came with playing in the NFC North. Gone are the majority of his games coming indoors.
That all means that buying into Darnold not only requires you to believe in what he did a season ago, but you have to believe in him overcoming the subtraction of those points of fantasy insolation.
PFF assigns blame for every pressure.
Guys who were under a lot of pressure, but it usually wasn’t their fault:
-Geno Smith
-CJ Stroud
-Sam Darnold pic.twitter.com/IlsvqbXCO7— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 11, 2025
That’s a tough sell.
PFSN’s Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator reflects as much, as he’s hardly ever drafted in standard leagues.
If I’m going to play the devil’s advocate, it’s rooted that we are talking about a 28-year-old coming off a special season. It’s supported by the fact that he had 11 games last season with a 10+ yard rush or 3+ touchdown passes, a level of fantasy production that can navigate the amount of change that Darnold is facing. It’s that Geno Smith completed a career-high 70.4% of his passes in executing this offense a season ago.
It’s a thin case, but it’s far more likely to come through than where we stood this time last year, and there is the mental struggle. We all just let Darnold pass by us for free and were burned as a result. Jaxon Smith-Njigba appears to be on a star trajectory, Cooper Kupp is still a scoring threat, and this backfield has a pair of talented options that can produce as pass catchers. Oh, and the end-of-season schedule lines up very well.
- Week 14 at Atlanta Falcons
- Week 15 vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Week 16 vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Week 17 at Carolina Panthers
That Panthers game will come on extended rest as a result of playing the week prior on Thursday night, making him an intriguing option to best ball managers and in deeper redraft leagues where the free agent pool is awfully shallow late in the year when the money is earned.
No, I’m not drafting Darnold.
No, I’m not dismissing Darnold.
Both things can be true, and I think that’s the right approach. Generally speaking, I don’t leave my drafts with two quarterbacks. Darnold has a Week 8 bye and, unless he’s literally repeating last season at every turn, something the market is telling us to bet against, it’s very possible that he will be a free agent as we enter November.
By then, you’ll have plenty of data to make an informed decision. You’ll not only have his seven games, but you’ll also know where you stand in your league and at the quarterback position. If you have an option that you plan on riding-or-dying with, there’s no need to go further; you don’t need the depth.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
But if you’re streaming the position and/or worried about your starter being able to sustain his viability as winter approaches, Darnold makes sense as an add with the hope that he peaks at the optimal time.
Fantasy football isn’t black and white. You’re not doing your job if you regress Darnold to his pre-Vikings levels and call it a day. The successful fantasy managers leave no stone unturned and remain open-minded.
Don’t lose track of Darnold, even if you’re not interested in drafting him.
Dan Fornek’s Sam Darnold Projection
Darnold saved his career by signing a one-year contract with the Minnesota Vikings during the 2024 offseason. Darnold was expected to compete with 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy, but wound up taking the starting role thanks to a preseason knee injury for the rookie.
The result was an MVP-caliber season that saw Darnold throw for 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Darnold finished as the QB9 in fantasy, scoring 18.1 PPG while throwing to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones. The big season allowed the veteran quarterback to secure a three-year, $100.5 million contract from the Seattle Seahawks to be their starting quarterback.
MORE:Â Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
Fantasy managers are right to be skeptical about Darnold’s newfound success after thriving in one of the best offensive environments in the NFL in 2024. The Seahawks do have proven pass catchers in Jaxson Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp, but neither player is on the level of Jefferson or Addison.
Additionally, Darnold’s struggles with pressure continued in 2024, even if he could overcome them. His completion percentage dropped from 73.7 to 49.7 in a clean pocket versus under pressure, with five of his 12 interceptions coming on those 169 pressured attempts. Seattle’s offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL, which is a real concern for Darnold.
It is wise to play the wait-and-see game to find whether Darnold can continue his 2024 success in new surroundings in 2025.
