Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. is coming off two seasons where he did not see much volume. He did start to come on strong toward the end of his sophomore campaign. Was that a fluke or the start of Mims emerging into a weekly fantasy football option?
Marvin Mims Jr. Fantasy Outlook
You will never find me endorsing someone like Mims following his rookie year. Future production can, of course, convince me to change my mind. But, as a general rule, I will blanket dismiss every rookie wide receiver drafted in the first three rounds who fails to reach 525 receiving yards. As a rookie, Mims caught 22 passes for 377 yards.
Despite a shallow depth chart and Sean Payton’s comments about needing to utilize Mims more, he was not even a thought for me in 2024.
Overall, this worked out. There was no value in drafting Mims. He averaged 7.6 fantasy points per game and remained an afterthought in the Broncos’ offense for most of the season. Emphasis on most.
Mims did have moments of brilliance. In Week 13, he posted 19.9 fantasy points on Thursday Night Football. In Week 17, he scored 30.2 fantasy points in an overtime thriller against the Bengals on a Saturday afternoon. In Week 18, he put up 22.1 fantasy points against the Chiefs’ backups.
NIX. MIMS. 93 YARDS TO THE CRIB.
📺: #CLEvsDEN on ESPN
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/pHzTvYKEoK— NFL (@NFL) December 3, 2024
The perception surrounding Mims seems to be that he came on strong late in the season and earned the Broncos’ WR2 role. Are we sure that’s what happened? I see a player who happened to record two of his best performances in standalone games for the entire world to see, creating vividness bias.
Based on when Mims had his spike weeks, he really didn’t have any fantasy value. Before Week 13, Mims’ best week was 13.3 fantasy points. Every other game was under 7.2. No one started him.
After that Week 13 explosion, Mims posted games of 6.0 and 9.5. Did anyone have the beans to start him in the fantasy championship? Then, his follow-up in Week 18 was helpful to no one because we don’t play fantasy football in Week 18.
Of course, none of this matters for 2025. All we need to figure out is if it was the start of something. Color me skeptical.
Seeing Mims have some big moments was great, but that’s all they were. Do you know how many regular-season games Mims played at least 50% of the snaps? The answer is zero. Mims hit 20 routes run in a game just once all season. Most weeks, he was in the single digits.
He posted 29.5% targets per route run rate, seventh in the league. It’s excellent that Mims was targeted so often when he ran a route, but it also tells a different story. Mims was used as a gadget player. The Broncos brought him in to scheme him the ball, but it was only situationally.
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Mims’ 2.86 yards per route run was fourth in the league. Unfortunately, he ran a route on 29.7% of Bo Nix’s dropbacks.
As efficient as Mims was last season, there’s nothing here for fantasy unless he is on the field more. His WR56 ADP suggests fantasy managers are not exactly optimistic about that increase.
I have Mims ranked as my WR59, which aligns with the consensus. There’s no risk in taking a shot on a proven, efficient player at that price. If we don’t see an increase in snaps and routes run early in the season, we can just drop him. If we do, maybe we get a WR3 for free.
Dan Fornek’s Marvin Mims Jr. Fantasy Projection
It appeared that 2024 would be another season where former second-round pick Marvin Mims Jr. would be relegated to a role as Denver’s kick returner instead of a part of the passing attack. From Weeks 1 to 11, Mims had just 13 receptions on 21 targets for 118 yards and a touchdown.
Starting in Week 12, the Broncos started incorporating him into the offense with impressive results. Mims was targeted 31 times in six games, catching 26 passes for 385 yards and five touchdowns. Mims finished tied for second in targets per route run (0.34), first in yards per route run (4.48) and third in yards after the catch (358). He was the WR22 in PPR points per game (15.8) and led all receivers in fantasy points per route run (1.10).
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As good as Mims was, his role during that stretch was not reliable. He was used mostly on screens and quick passes. He was on the field for just 34.4% of Denver’s offensive snaps, a minor increase over his typical workload (22.8%).
The Broncos added players this offseason who could continue to keep Mims in a volatile gadget role in 2025. Free agent tight end Evan Engram can command a substantial target share. The team also drafted running back RJ Harvey and wide receiver Pat Bryant to bolster their pass-catching group.
Mims has shown that he can be a fantasy-relevant player, but his ability to score fantasy points is contingent on breaking big plays on schemed touches. It will be impossible to trust him in fantasy in 2025 unless we see him carve out a more consistent role in Denver’s passing attack.
