Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice was on track to be a WR1 last season and one of the best values in fantasy football. Then, his own quarterback accidentally projectile-missiled himself into his knee, ending the pass catcher’s season. While Rice was on the shelf, Xavier Worthy slowly broke out. Heading into 2025, will a healthy Rice reclaim his WR1 status?
Rashee Rice Fantasy Outlook
What a bummer the 2024 season was. Rice quickly became one of my top targets because I felt the fantasy community wasn’t properly viewing him as the clear alpha in a Patrick Mahomes offense. After just one week, it became apparent Rice was on track to be one of the best values in fantasy football.
Rice opened the season with games of 17.3, 18.5, and 29.1 fantasy points. He was averaging 9.67 targets per game.
Then, in Week 4, after throwing an interception, Mahomes decided he should try to make the tackle (something quarterbacks should never do… it’s just not worth it). But he didn’t injure himself in the process. Instead, he launched his body into his WR1’s knee, ending Rice’s season.
Had Rice not gotten hurt, there’s a real chance he would have averaged over 18.0 points per game, and we’d be talking about him as a 1/2 turn selection in fantasy drafts.
Here is what we call a course-correct.
I’ve previously said to Sell.Rashee Rice is putting in WORK to be ready for the 2025 season coming off of LCL, PLC, and hamstring surgeries.
Still has 6 months until Wk1 (suspension still pending though).
Message received.
Buy. pic.twitter.com/cf0F1mzeJG
— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) March 7, 2025
The question fantasy managers must answer for this season is whether we are getting a discount again.
Xavier Worthy Emerged in Rice’s Absence
While Rice was on the shelf, Worthy stepped up. It took him a while, but it also took Rice a while as a rookie the year before. Don’t let Worthy’s menial 11.0 PPG fool you. He became a legitimate fantasy WR1 by the end of his rookie year.
Beginning in Week 14, Worthy became an every-down player (to the extent anyone is an every-down receiver on the Chiefs). He played over 80% of the snaps every game the remainder of the season (Week 18 does not count). He hadn’t come close to 80% most weeks prior.
In the fantasy playoffs, Worthy posted games of 19.6, 20.5, and 22.9 fantasy points. In the AFC Championship Game and Super Bowl, Worthy posted 22.1 and 35.7 fantasy points. And while those don’t count for fantasy, they speak to Worthy’s role.
Now, fantasy managers aren’t certain what will happen. Rice’s ADP sits at WR20, while Worthy is around WR30. The community still believes that Rice is the better bet, but the risk is baked in.
Bet on Rice
The Chiefs had a lot go wrong at wide receiver last year. Worthy benefited from being the only real option. Rice and Hollywood Brown were injured. Travis Kelce is clearly in a decline. Midseason acquisition DeAndre Hopkins is very much just a role player at this juncture. Of course, the Chiefs were manufacturing touches for Worthy.
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I believe Worthy’s layup targets that otherwise would have gone to Rice will revert to going to Rice. As long as Rice’s recovery continues to go well, and by all accounts, it does, I expect him to resume his status as essentially the new Kelce. Rice will be the guy getting all those underneath targets that rack up the points in PPR leagues.
Now that we’ve covered the assessment of Rice as a player, we have to address the suspension. If there were no suspension risk, I would have Rice ranked as my WR13.
After months, we finally have clarity. Rice will miss the first six games of the season. Knowing there is no longer any risk of Rice being absent during the fantasy playoffs, we can more accurately plan.
I moved Rice to WR26. I would take him in the fifth round.
In shallower leagues, I am much more inclined to take a chance on Rice, as I can more easily manage his absence while bye weeks will have minimal impact and injuries aren’t as rampant as they will be later in the season. But even in deeper leagues, it’s important to remember Round 5 or 6 picks bust all the time. Rice is a surefire WR1 when he returns.
