Joe Burrow just produces. He’s been healthy (12+ games played) for three NFL seasons, and he’s been a joy to have on your fantasy football roster for each of those campaigns.
- 2021: 4,611 passing yards and 34 TDs
- 2022: 4,475 passing yards and 35 TDs
- 2024: 4,918 passing yards and 43 TDs
As the franchise QB enters his age-28 season, his spot as a locked-in fantasy asset is safe. But what is the ceiling in this era of mobility for a quarterback whose per-17-game rushing numbers net out to 199 yards and three scores?
Burrow is a unique case, and due to the tiering of the position this year, could well end up being a bargain.
Joe Burrow’s Fantasy Outlook
Let’s be clear: Joe Cool isn’t a stiff pocket passer allergic to the open field (remember the 47-yard TD run against the Giants in that ugly win last season?). He’s just not the hyper-athlete that can save four fantasy weeks a season with his legs alone.
And that’s fine, he’s not being asked to.
The fantasy industry has collectively decided that those rare QBs are in a class of their own. The ADP reflects a top tier that runs four deep, and I think that’s right. So while we’d love for Burrow to pick up value with his legs, he doesn’t have to be the class of the second tier at the position this season.
As an aside, fantasy managers tend to disrespect the upper-middle class of the position. The tendency is to either pay up for one of those unicorns that can absolutely break the slate in a variety of ways (Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, or Lamar Jackson) or leverage the depth at the position and hope that Jared Goff throws for 5,000 yards, Justin Fields rediscovers himself, or Drake Maye takes that Year 2 leap.
For the record, I’m not against any of those players, but I am against outright dismissing the Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray tier that exists between paying up and punting.
The relationship between Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase’s parents is so wholesome 🥺❤️
📺 Quarterback Season 2 pic.twitter.com/2R0wP6omrH
— Netflix Sports (@netflixsports) July 9, 2025
Even if you like what Cincinnati did this offseason, they were tied for 25th in scoring defense a year ago and even worse by our grading metrics (Defense+: 28th). It’s not showing drastic improvement in the short term. What Burrow lacks in skill set, he makes up for in the game environment, as he projects to be pushed on a near-weekly basis in a way that few are.
And, to state the obvious, just because Burrow doesn’t routinely rip off big plays with his legs doesn’t mean that his profile is void of big plays altogether. Thanks to having maybe the best receiver duo in the sport, Burrow’s average touchdown pass travels 19.9 yards and carries an average depth of target of 11.5 yards.
Shot taker. Playmaker.
He’s coming off a season in which he set a career-high in touchdown rate (6.6%) while posting the second-lowest interception rate (1.4%) during his time in the NFL. The scary part is that I think he has room to grow, given that the Bengals elected to get the band back together for another season.
Out-of-Pocket Splits
- 2020-23: 107.6 passer rating, 7.3 yards per attempt, 11.5% TD rate
- 2024: 91.1 passer rating, 5.9 yards per attempt, 7.6% TD rate
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Fantasy football is a numbers game. Four quarterbacks are labeled as elite, and about a dozen will be available at the tail end of your draft with a real path to a top-12 finish this season. Most of your competition will push the chips in early at the position or play the waiting game, trying to grab two options to fill one spot.
If you think that happens in your specific draft, a nice buying opportunity will present itself for this second tier, a tier in which I think Burrow has as good a shot as anyone at pacing. The projection process can be daunting because he lacks anything close to the rushing upside of those ranked ahead of him, but this has the chance to be a rare offense that can function in an elite manner without a dual threat under center.
Frank Ammirante’s Joe Burrow Fantasy Projection
Joe Burrow is coming off a terrific season where he threw for 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns, finishing as QB3 in fantasy points per game. The problem is that this is the passing production you need for Burrow to hit his ceiling. Now priced up as QB5 in ADP, it’s a bit harder to get to the Bengals’ quarterback.
Remember that this player is one year removed from a QB26 finish in fantasy points per game. We’ve also seen Burrow sometimes deal with injuries, most notably a wrist ailment that affected his play during that 2023 season.
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To put it bluntly, you’re getting a pocket passer priced at a premium now, which means there’s more of an opportunity cost in taking him at his current cost. For context, Burrow is going around talented skill players like James Conner and Chris Olave.
With that said, the best way to target Burrow is if you take Ja’Marr Chase and/or Tee Higgins earlier in your draft. Building a Bengals stack would give you a high weekly ceiling, making it more worth paying for Burrow. But if you don’t get an elite Bengals’ pass catcher, it’s best to avoid Burrow unless he falls in your draft.
