Tim Patrick Fantasy Outlook: Start or sit in Week 15?

Heading into your Week 15 fantasy football semifinals, players like Broncos WR Tim Patrick can add much needed upside to your roster. Patrick is quietly having a WR3 season and is likely on your waivers in most leagues. Heading into a matchup against the Buffalo Bills, is Tim Patrick someone you should add in Week 15 if you need the extra push for your fantasy team?

Broncos WR Tim Patrick is quietly having an excellent season

We all know that some WRs are reliable options in fantasy, while others fly under the radar. It is players who sit in the middle who seem to get lost in the noise. However, they are the ones that are critical to your team’s depth in times like this where you might be looking for a boost. Denver Broncos WR Tim Patrick is one of those players.

While Patrick hasn’t racked up a ton of receptions or targets, he is the most consistent receiver on the team. Which is saying something, knowing they spent an early first-round pick on Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy. 

Through 12 games this season, Patrick has 43 receptions on 63 targets for 643 yards and six touchdowns.

He leads the Broncos in receiving yards and is only second to Noah Fant in catches. Jerry Jeudy has 19 more targets than Patrick and seven fewer receiving yards. His high-level route running has allowed him to average a team-high 15.9 yards per reception.

The 27-year-old has a score or six targets in five straight games if you throw out the Kendall Hinton debacle. This includes three touchdowns in his last two games.

Because of all of this, Tim Patrick sits as the WR37 in PPR scoring, averaging 11.9 PPR points per game.

Patrick has succeeded in fantasy even with an offense that has struggled

No one would confuse this offense for a high-scoring or efficient team. At times they seem to have it together, and the next game leaves us scratching our heads. 

The Broncos are 27th in points, 25th in yards per game (328.6), and 26th in plays per game (62.69). 

It is not much better through the air as they average 229 passing yards, not including the game when they didn’t have a QB. Even though they are a 55/45 split in favor of the pass, efficiency has not been on their side. Neither has the health of Drew Lock.

Injuries and timing have made it difficult for Drew Lock to progress

The second-year QB out of Missouri had been banged up or playing through something in what seems like all season. He suffered a shoulder injury in Week 2 against the Steelers after attempting five passes and wasn’t back on the field until Week 6. 

He seemed rusty in his return, completing 10 of 24 passing for 189 yards and two interceptions. 104 of those yards went to Tim Patrick on four catches.

Over the next five games, Lock was not bad, just not great. He averaged 268.4 yards per game, 56.3% competition percentage, but has a 1.5:1 interception to TD ratio. 

Then, Week 12 hits, and we know what happened. Lock came back and threw for 151 yards and as many TDs (2) as interceptions (2). Luckily enough, both went to Tim Patrick.

The point of all of this is that we only have seven games where Lock was under normal circumstances or coming off missed time. It’s not surprising he struggled in 2020. In those games, Lock is 159 of 266 (59.77%) for 1,838 yards with 11 TDs and 9 INTs. From a per game basis, all of his passing stats improve. Lock adds 4.2 competitions on 5.8 more attempts for 42.77 more yards with a 1:1 TD/INT ratio.

What can we expect out of Tim Patrick for fantasy in Week 15?

Tim Patrick has finished as a top-36 wide receiver in eight of his last 10 games where he actually had a quarterback. The last time was Week 7 against the Kansas City Chiefs when the Broncos we trounced 43-16. 

This week not only is Lock coming off a four-touchdown game, but the Bills are a middle of the road matchup for Tim Patrick in Week 15. The Bills have allowed 17 different wide receivers to finish inside the top 40 in PPR. The question is, who will Tre’Davious White cover? Could he cover Jerry Jeudy even though Tim Patrick has been the more consistent threat on offense? They might just play side, which means Patrick, who lines up on the right 45% of the time, could see White more. 

The Bills have allowed a below-average 1.72 PPR points per target to wide receivers, the 12th-lowest mark. Not a great stat knowing the lack of volume on this offense and Patrick seeing five or fewer targets in his last three games. 

If he can get deep, the Bills allow opponents to complete 59.3% of deep passes (second-highest).

There is a myriad of risks involved playing Tim Patrick in fantasy in Week 15. He is a WR3/Flex play, but it’s hard to see him crossing the 10-point barrier without a score. He is only rostered in 32% of leagues if you want to take the shot in fantasy.

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Tommy Garrett is a writer for PFN covering Fantasy Football. You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.