The first day of the draft is exciting, but it’s what we spent months breaking down. The second and third days, however, are reactions to what has already happened and are where the true team building takes place.
We take a look at some of the NFL Draft winners and losers from Day 2 (Rounds 2-3), a stretch of rounds that has included Curtis Martin (1995), Jason Taylor (1997), Russell Wilson (2012), Travis Kelce (2013), and others plucked off the board.
NFL Draft Day 2 Winners: Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns started the fireworks on Thursday night by moving out of the two-spot (the rights to Travis Hunter) along with picks 104 and 200 for the fifth pick (result: DT Mason Graham), the 36th pick, the 126th pick, and a first-round selection from the Jaguars next season.
The potential of Hunter is enticing, but that’s a nice haul for a franchise in need of depth, and given how the draft fell, their ability to hold two of the first four picks in Round 2 (picks 33 and 36) proved valuable.
Shedeur Sanders, a player who was one-time viewed as a top-10 lock, was staring them in the face, and no one would have blamed them for jumping.
Seasons With a 30-TD Passer Since 2000:
- Cleveland Browns: 0
- Other 31 NFL franchises: 117
Seasons Under 20 TD Passes and 17+ Interceptions Since 2000:
- Cleveland Browns: 5
- Other 31 NFL franchises: 40
They passed. Twice.
Instead, they opted for increased stability on the defensive end and made an effort to take a step forward on the offensive end. Given how the earlier trade worked, they could have two top-10 picks next season and, in theory, invest in a quarterback they are more sold on (Penn State’s Drew Allar is currently on that list, but we know how fickle this sort of thing can be 12 months ahead of time).
Carson Schwesinger was the first pick of the second round, a sound tackling linebacker who figures to help out a defense that allowed the third most YAC per reception a season ago. This has been a top-11 defense per our Defense+ metric in three of the past four seasons, and further solidifying on the front figures to take some pressure off of an offense that is going to carry limited upside for the foreseeable future.
The Browns finished last season with our 20th-ranked offensive line, and they will need to address that, but upside at the running back position can cover up some of those flaws, and they gained access to that by way of Ohio State’s Quinshon Judkins. He enters the professional ranks with the body of an immediate impact player and has shown impressive levels of patience during his collegiate career.
Quinshon Judkins: RB4 in the 2025 class in the Rookie Super Model.
28th best RB prospect since 2017 with a strong comparison group:
15%: top-six status w/in three years
42%: top-12 status
65%: top-24 statusNice pick for the Browns. pic.twitter.com/XSsf2ntHOY
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland)
Cleveland lacks reliable depth at the position and isn’t in a position to compete right now. This should allow Judkins to cut his teeth in 2025, giving him the chance to develop into a three-down featured back in 2026, when this team figures to start their upward trajectory as a part of this extended rebuild.
A quarterback would have been the sexy pick — a linebacker and running back were proper team-building picks, all things considered, and Cleveland executed.
New York Jets
The Aaron Rodgers era didn’t exactly go according to plan in Gotham City, and the damage done from that might be felt for a few seasons, but I do think this is a step in a positive direction.
Justin Fields’ QB+ Grades and Ranks:
- 2021: 62.5 (D-), 32nd
- 2022: 76.6 (C), 15th
- 2023: 68.2 (D+), 24th
- 2024: Did Not Qualify
Mission “Recreate 2022” is on the plate of the Jets this season, and the addition of Mason Taylor, the first 100-1,000 tight end in LSU history, with the 42nd overall pick, makes sense with that as the backdrop. In 2022, Cole Kmet caught 73.2% of his targets from Fields and had more TD receptions from the then-second-year QB than any two of his teammates combined.
Given this excerpt from PFSN’s Zahid Rashid’s Day 2 landings spots for Taylor, I think we can agree that a Cole Kmet trajectory would certainly be on the low end of outcomes.
“Taylor is quick, fluid, and explosive out of his breaks, with sharp instincts and reliable hands at the catch point. His ability to gain yards after the catch (RAC) adds to his complete profile as a pass-catching threat.
“Often compared to former Arkansas star and second-round pick Hunter Henry, Taylor’s skill set allows him to offer similar reliability in the pass game, chain-moving ability, and schematic versatility, potentially becoming a high-end starter.”
Having a reliable tight end facilitated a lot of good from Fields as a passer that we really haven’t seen on a consistent basis outside of that window. In 2022 …
- Fields had his best season in third-down completion rate (62%, other three seasons: 56.5%)
- Fields’ red-zone efficiency spiked: 66.7% completion rate with a 36.4% TD rate (other three seasons: 55.7% completion rate with a 17.5% TD rate)
New York is in on Fields for two years at $40 million ($30 million guaranteed) and wants to give the 26-year-old a chance to make this a longer-term relationship. The New York media may be unforgiving, but realistically, we aren’t asking for a Hall of Fame season – Rodgers was QB29 per our QB+ grading system (for reference, Daniel Jones was a better QB in that city, ranking as QB28), leaving a very low bar to clear this season.
This roster has more talent than their previous win totals suggest, and this addition is building on that. New York bet on Fields this offseason, and they strengthened that bet here.
Houston Texans
Houston, you have my attention.
We were all swept up in the C.J. Stroud hype during a stellar rookie season, but he never found a rhythm in Year 2, leaving us with more questions than answers.
C.J. Stroud Splits When Blitzed:
- 2023: 114.4 passer rating (fourth), 8.9 YPA (second), and 5.0 TD/INT (sixth)
- 2024: 89.5 passer rating (14th), 6.7 YPA (14th), and 2.3 TD/INT (13th)
The Texans are telling us that they are confident in what their franchise QB brings to the table when given the opportunity, and the drafting of OT Aireontae Ersery speaks to that. Houston believes that if they can keep Stroud clean, they can dominate this division and make noise in January, and I think they might be right.
Ersery is a raw player, but his pro-ready body is a good starting point, and his not starting to play the sport until his junior year in high school gives him a different developmental curve than most.
I like his potential to make an impact sooner rather than later, and with the Texans adding Iowa State’s Jayden Higgins 14 picks earlier, defensive-minded Demeco Ryans is loading up the other side of the ball, a logical move given where his strengths lie as a teacher.
Most teams want to trade down – the Texans are a prime example of how to do it well.
Washington Commanders
I thought the Commanders took their medicine in Round 1 by drafting an offensive lineman to further the development of Jayden Daniels, allowing them to pounce on CB Trey Amos, a physically impressive player out of Ole Miss who many had a first-round grade on.
His versatility makes him a player who can fit in schemes, not one who has to have something built around what he does well. Washington was our 17th-rated defense a season ago and was a unit that improved with time. Amos gives this team a good chance to continue that upward trajectory and maybe push for an NFC East crown in 2025.
NFL Draft Day 2 Losers: Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears entered the second round with two early picks and the potential to seriously impact their future trajectory.
I’m not positive they did that.
Luther Burden III (39th overall pick) is a nice player and can move the chains. He’s a viable underneath option, and that is where Caleb Williams was pro-ready as a rookie (15th in passer rating on balls thrown under 15 yards and 32nd on deeper passes). This isn’t a knock on him.
Does another young receiver (Rome Odunze last season) aid the development of Williams the way a running back would have?
In 2024, the Bears averaged a league low 3.5 yards per carry from the running back position last season (their second straight season of significant decline). Sure, “running back doesn’t matter” has been a rallying call for years now, but the recent data challenges that train of thought a bit.
2022-2024 RB YPC Leaders
- Baltimore Ravens: 68.6% win rate (fifth highest)
- San Francisco 49ers: 60.8% win rate (seventh highest)
- Philadelphia Eagles: 76.5% win rate (second highest)
- Detroit Lions: 70.6% win rate (fourth highest)
Williams ranked 29th of 36 qualifiers in play-action completion percentage last season (putting him in the Bryce Young and Cooper Rush tier), and without this offense forcing opponents to respect their ability to move the ball on the ground, the Year 2 step for their franchise QB is likely to be limited.
Trade summary
Bills get:
2025 2nd-round pick (No. 41)
2025 3rd-round pick (No. 72)
2025 7th-round pickBears get:
2025 2nd-round pick (No. 56)
2025 2nd-round pick (No. 62)
2025 4th-round pick— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL)
They used the 56th overall pick on Ozzy Trapilo, an offensive tackle who comes with average physical traits for his height (6’8”). His limited projectable impact on the run game was highlighted throughout the draft process, and while this is a pass-first league, continued negligence in this respect could prove prohibitive.
Shemar Turner was another addition to the trenches, as Chicago found value in taking the former Aggie with the 62nd overall pick. I have nothing against the player (I actually like the strength that he packs into his 6’3” frame), but I would have preferred this franchise to work on improving their secondary.
Da Bears have allowed a league-high 13.6 YPA on deep passes since 2022 (17.2% worse than the league average). Offenses are increasingly conservative these days, so you can’t give away yards on the few deep shots taken
Need proof? Here are the results from the teams that ranked in the 20th percentile or lower last season in terms of deep pass YPA.
- Las Vegas Raiders: Four wins, one of three teams to lose 10 straight
- Indianapolis Colts: The only sub-.500 team with 7+ wins by six or fewer points in the 2000s
- Carolina Panthers: Five wins, league worst -193 point differential
- Chicago Bears: Five wins, one of three teams to lose 10 straight
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 10 one-score losses (only team with more than eight)
- New York Giants: Three wins, one of three teams to lose 10 straight
Chicago is better today than they were entering the draft, but given the number of bites they had at the apple, I think they could have done much more.
Detroit Lions
This feels like a high school student who knows he/she has the required credits to graduate and mails in the last few weeks of the year.
Detroit is going to be a force in 2025 and for years to come, but I can’t help but question their activity on Day 2. They made Tate Ratledge the 57th overall pick, and while he’s a nice fit for this offensive line, addressing the fifth-best unit in the league with a pick this early felt a bit aggressive, especially with high upside defenders like Mike Green and Trey Amos still on the board.
That pick alone wouldn’t have landed them on this list, but the drafting of a big slot receiver with the 70th overall pick left me no choice. Isaac TeSlaa is a prospect I like in a vacuum, but what new dimension does he add to this team?
He’s unlikely to rank any higher than fourth in terms of targets (I’d rank him as the fifth most dangerous weapon in this regard, as I’d fear Jahmyr Gibbs out of the backfield more, in addition to Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta) and his profile is too duplicative for my liking.
The 19.5 yards per catch and physical traits hint at a field stretcher, but Williams is already great at that. His college usage paints him as a comfortable slot option, but that’s St. Brown’s space of excellence.
If I’m a Lions fan, I want to add win-now pieces to a roster that is ready to compete at the highest of levels, something that TeSlaa’s teammate in EDGE Landon Jackson profiles as more of for the reigning NFC North champions.
Detroit is still a Tier 1 team, but I don’t think they increased their 2025 win expectancy the way they could have on Day 2.
Parting shots: Tyler Shough was taken by the New Orleans Saints with the 40th overall pick, and I’m intrigued. The team is hoping to have “clarity” on Derek Carr’s shoulder injury sooner, but the future is clear – it’s the Shough show.
His big arm is a nice fit for a team with plenty of talent at the receiver position, and the idea that he might get to ease into his professional career is even more appealing for me. Sean Payton is an offensive mind who went out of his way to get his QB and overachieve last season – Kellen Moore could be doing something similar, but with less risk attached to the flag he has planted.
The San Francisco 49ers picking high-pedigree defensive players with the 11th pick of both the first (EDGE Mykel Williams, Georgia) and second (DT Alfred Collins, Texas) rounds tells me that this team is betting on Brock Purdy being around for years to come.
This team held the 10th-best defense in 2023, but their production tanked last year, leaving them as our 26th graded unit. I thought moving on from Deebo Samuel Sr. may foreshadow an overhaul of this offense, but it seems that they are content with the names in-house.
Say what you will about the bet on Sam Darnold from the Seattle Seahawks, but this team is building in a very specific way around him, and that gives him as good a shot to repeat his success from last season as possible. In the first round, Seattle brought in a guard in Grey Zabel with a high floor, and with their second pick of the second round, they plucked TE Elijah Arroyo off the board, a natural pass catcher with unique upside at the position.
The 83rd pick of the draft was Kaleb Johnson, a running back who takes his talents to Pittsburgh in more of a long-term selection. He’s a nice mix of the two primary backs currently on this roster in Jaylen Warren (final year of his deal) and Kenneth Gainwell – he’s the future of the position for this team, though I’m not sure he’s too impactful in the short term.
