The Utah State profile is offensive-oriented. The Aggies have a pair of guars in Ian Martinez and Mason Falslev capable of combining for 40 on any given night. They can score at all three levels and the gravity they create opens up things for their supporting cast. If this team is allowed to dictate tempo, you’re going to be surprised at what they can do.
A first-round matchup with UCLA is perfect. They get a good draw and you get to be different by picking against a low-seeded blue blood. The Bruins’ defense is simply average, and they aren’t the type of team that can take advantage of an undersized Aggies team on the glass. However, asking them to oust Tennessee is a tall order. We saw Florida generate good looks in the SEC title game against this stingy Volunteers defense, so there’s a path for the slipper to fit here.
This team has won 30 of 34 games and owns the most efficient defense in the field. This is an experienced bunch with a lot of length on the perimeter, something that translates well against any level of opponent. Their top three scorers are all opportunistic guards who combine for over 5.5 steals per game and can all put the ball in the bucket in a variety of ways. Rebounding is a weakness that could be exploited, but their ability to force poor shots could help offset that and allow them to make some noise.
A talented but offensively inconsistent Michigan team awaits UC San Diego in the first round. They can catch a break in the path as the Texas A&M is among the most overrated teams by seed. Should they get the Aggies and their worst eFG% in this field, they can grind out a slugfest. If that happens, Yale has posted average defensive numbers despite playing a lower level of play than UC San Diego.
Lipscomb doesn’t seem to be an elite team but the path opens up nicely for them. As for a profile, it’s really quite simple: the Bison are going to beat you in scoring at the free-throw line and ask you to stop Jacob Ongnacevic on a consistent basis. The senior is having a monster year (20.1 points on 57.3% shooting from the field and 40.2% from deep). This disciplined group rarely fouls, and Ongnacevic is their worst free-throw shooter of the primary ball-handlers … at 79.8%.
Iowa State has had a great season, but they will be without Keshon Gilbert and that hurts. Without him, this is a coin flip situation and waiting in the second round is either Ole Miss (the worst rebounding team in the field) or the winner of San Diego State (a bottom-10 offense in the field) and North Carolina (a team most had not qualifying for the dance at all). It can be uncomfortable advancing a 14-seed one round, let alone two.
The Flames are pretty good at passing the rock. They’ve been a top-10 defense up to this point. No upstart team is complete without some portability, and Taelon Peter offers just that — the man has knocked down 46% of his triples this season. He’s getting hot at the perfect time (in six games this month, he’s 39-of-52 from the field).
Liberty has Oregon in Round 1 and potentially a date with Arizona in Round 2 — two teams that played considerably more difficult regular season schedules, but neither showed the buy-in on the defensive end that the Flames have. Liberty’s metric check in ahead of both of those more popular programs. In a one game setting where anything can happen, an elevated floor should keep them competitive.
The Rams are one of the best passing teams. Nique Clifford drives the ship (Colorado State’s leader in points, rebounds, assists, and steals) and he is surrounded by a cast of teammates that is more than happy to lean into that. With 120 starts on his D-I resume, this is a player you can trust in tight games and with this team playing at a far slower pace than the matchups they will draw if chalk holds, quality over quantity is a battle they can win.
If things go according to seed, they will play Maryland for a trip to the second week of this event provided they can upset Memphis. In that first round matchup, Colorado State grades as the better defensive team and in Round 2, they likely square off with one of the worst seed-adjusted passing teams in the field. They might make a run further than this. That would likely mean ousting the Florida Gators and while that may seem aggressive, with a week to gameplan, it does not seem crazy. They’d aim to slow down that explosive offense.
