The Washington Commanders will face the Detroit Lions in the Divisional Round. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding TE Zach Ertz.
Is Zach Ertz Playing vs. the Lions?
The Commanders continue to give their veteran TE Wednesdays off. Ertz is fine, even with a rib injury, and will play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Commanders’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Zach Ertz in the Divisional Round?
We embraced a low floor from Zach Ertz this regular season (only four TEs had more games with at least seven PPR points during the regular season than Washington’s veteran), and that paid off during the second half of the season.
The playoffs are a different beast, however, and Ertz didn’t perform well for you if you had exposure on the Wild Card slate (2-23-0). It’s not the low-level stat line that worries me — even the best tight ends have duds on their 2024 résumés — it’s how it occurred.
Production on short passes, 2024 regular season:
- Terry McLaurin: 289 routes, 57 targets
- Ertz: 282 routes, 62 targets
Production on short passes, 2024 Wild Card Round:
- McLaurin: 24 routes, seven targets
- Ertz: 23 routes, three targets
The role where Ertz was option 1A during the regular season was McLaurin’s with a bullet on Sunday night; if that sustains, we have another disappointing performance coming for a player who struggles to earn looks as it is (sub-14.5% on-field target share in four of his past five games).
If you believe that the Commanders attack the Lions like most teams, and that’s underneath (DET: second lowest aDOT against this regular season), you need Ertz to return to top priority in that regard.
Can he?
I’m not so sure. McLaurin is obviously well-suited to earn looks in the short passing game and is more explosive after the catch. For me, betting on Ertz is a bet against Dyami Brown. I think he’s a fine play if he can return to the secondary option in this offense — especially considering Detroit could opt for a conservative defense to highlight Daniels as a short passer rather than a field stretch.
Ertz has run at least 30 routes in seven of his past nine games — he’s going to be on the field plenty, and in a game that is likely to feature a passing script, I could see myself warming to him as the week goes on if the ownership projections aren’t overwhelming.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Divisional Round Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Zach Ertz’s Fantasy Points Projection in the Divisional Round
As of Saturday, Ertz is projected to score 9.9 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 4.4 receptions for 40 yards and 0.2 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Eagles' Defense
With Jalen Hurts MIA for the second straight week, the Philadelphia Eagles held on against the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round thanks to the disruptive playmaking of their defense.
Philly generated its fourth-highest sack rate in 2024 thanks to an uncharacteristically blitz-heavy game plan. The Eagles blitzed 22% of Matthew Stafford's dropbacks, their fifth-highest rate all season. It worked spectacularly, as they generated two sacks and five pressures when blitzing the Rams, along with a 46% pressure rate.
There isn't a single statistical flaw in Philadelphia's defense, which ranks top 10 in every metric that encompasses the Defense+ grades (except for sack rate, where they're 15th). That makes them favorites to win the NFC Championship Game, even with how spectacular Jayden Daniels has been as the presumptive Offensive Rookie of the Year.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.Â
Zach Ertz’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.Â
Conference Championship TE PPR Rankings
1) Travis Kelce | KC (vs. BUF)
2) Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs. WAS)
3) Dalton Kincaid | BUF (at KC)
4) Zach Ertz | WAS (at PHI)
5) Noah Gray | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Dawson Knox | BUF (at KC)
7) John Bates | WAS (at PHI)
8) Grant Calcaterra | PHI (vs. WAS)
9) Ben Sinnott | WAS (at PHI)
10) Quintin Morris | BUF (at KC)
11) Peyton Hendershot | KC (vs. BUF)
12) E.J. Jenkins | PHI (vs. WAS)
13) Anthony Firkser | NYJ ()
Commanders at Eagles Trends and Insights
Washington Commanders
Team: The Commanders won 23.5% of their games last season – the fourth-worst win percentage for a team that took part in a Conference Championship the following season.
QB: Jayden Daniels became the first player in NFL history with 15 rushes and 20 completions in a postseason game where he averaged 9.5 yards per pass.
QB: Daniels became the first player in NFL history with two touchdowns and 12 rush attempts without an interception in consecutive games.
Offense: Including the playoffs, there have been 15 instances in which a team starting a rookie QB score 34 points this season – the Commanders have accounted for seven of them.
Defense: How impactful has the offense been in Washington? They’ve now allowed over 2.5 points per drive nine times this season – they’ve won seven of those contests. It should be noted that their six worst point-per-drive defensive showings have all come on the road.
Fantasy: Brian Robinson ran for 77 yards and two scores on 15 carries against the Lions on Saturday night. In his previous four games, he ran for 110 yards and zero scores on 38 carries.
Betting: Do you think we'll see points in this game? Washington has covered each of the past four games that have gone over the total.
Philadelphia Eagles
Team: The Eagles lost two games in September and have lost one game since (at Washington, Week 16). In that loss, Philadelphia became the first team to score 21 points in the first quarter in a losing effort since the 2019 Texans (Divisional Round at Chiefs).
QB: Jalen Hurts is averaging 6.3 yards per pass in the postseason, down from 8.0 during the regular season.
Offense: Saquon Barkley has more rushing yards in touchdowns against the Rams this season (282) than any other player has for the season as a whole.
Defense: The Eagles have forced a turnover in 11 of their past 13 games (this coming on a streak of three turnover-less games in Weeks 6-8), including multiple in four of their past five games.
Fantasy: Hurts’ 44-yard TD on Sunday was the fourth longest by a QB inthe postseason, and he has now run for 29+ yards in 11 straight games (T-9th longest streak by a QB, the second longest streak of his career)
Betting: Since Week 10, overs are 2-0 when the Eagles play the Rams and 2-7 when Philadelphia plays any other team.
