We’re gearing up for Week 7 of fantasy football action, and with that, there are lots of queslevistions about who to start and who to sit. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant quarterback in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 7 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Rodgers, QB | NYJ (at PIT)
All signs point to the Rodgers/Davante Adams reunion taking place on Sunday night against maybe the best defense in the league.
Are you not entertained?!?
I think you’re jumping the gun a touch if you want to lock in Rodgers this week given his lack of form and the potential for this offense to change in a significant way on short rest, but I do think he is firmly on the low-end QB1 discussion for the remainder of the season.
I’m viewing this as something of a second season-opening game; I think the offense has a chance to look that different. Rodgers has cleared 13 points in only one season opener since 2019, completing just 63.3% of his passes with six touchdowns (and four interceptions) on those 158 attempts.
I can’t get Rodgers any higher than QB14 this week due to the sudden change in personnel and short work week, but I imagine this is as low as I’ll have him for the foreseeable future.
Aidan O’Connell, QB | LV (at LAR)
O’Connell averages 5.6 yards per pass this season and has as many interceptions as touchdown passes (two). His two highest-volume games came in tough spots (at Denver and vs. Pittsburgh), something that this certainly is not. However, without much receiver depth or a run game to keep the Rams honest, there just isn’t enough upside here, even in a plus matchup.
O’Connell doesn’t have a single rushing attempt this season, giving him essentially no room for error on a roster that doesn’t support such an outing.
Andy Dalton, QB | CAR (at WAS)
After the big win over the Raiders (319 yards and three scores), Dalton has come crashing back to earth and is the rare example of a quarterback playing the Commanders who isn’t ranked inside of my top 15.
Dalton has been intercepted in three straight starts and has failed to average even six yards per pass in all those contests. The Panthers have one path to remaining competitive this week (and most weeks, for that matter): pound Chuba Hubbard and shorten the game. Against a vulnerable defense like this, they might be able to do that for longer than normal, putting Dalton’s volume in question.
It wouldn’t shock me if we got a vintage performance, as the Commanders are a bottom-three defense in yards per attempt, touchdown rate, and passer rating, but there are options likely on your waiver wire whom I prefer (Geno Smith and Drake Maye).
Anthony Richardson, QB | IND (vs. MIA)
When Richardson tested at the NFL Combine, we were left wondering what force could possibly deal with his physical gifts. How we didn’t settle on Joe Flacco as the answer to the question is well beyond me.
Richardson was healthy enough to be the emergency quarterback last week, a status that has me thinking he plays this week, but how can you play him with confidence right now?
He should be rostered, and I’m penciling him in as a starter sooner rather than later if he can prove that he is at full speed this weekend. The Colts are going to have to put up points in bunches with the Texans, Vikings, Bills, Jets, and Lions on the Week 8-12 slate – we spent a pretty penny on Richardson this summer, and if he is going to come remotely close to rewarding us for our optimism, I think it starts next week.
Baker Mayfield, QB | TB (vs. BAL)
Since joining the Bucs, Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdown passes in eight of 11 road games; as long as Mike Evans can shake off a few injuries from Week 6, I like his chances to extend that positive trend.
Baltimore has allowed over 20 fantasy points to a quarterback three times already, though they did manage to slow down Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. On the whole, we’ve seen much more bad than good from the Ravens’ secondary. With Mayfield finishing as a top-seven QB in five of six weeks, he’s a good bet to pick on their flaws.
If you had told me two months ago that I’d have Mayfield ranked ahead of not one but both quarterbacks in the 49ers/Chiefs game, I would have called you crazy — but that’s where we sit.
Brock Purdy, QB | SF (vs. KC)
I don’t say this lightly, but does Purdy remind anyone else of a poor man’s version of peak Aaron Rodgers?
This season, Purdy’s aggressive grade (aDOT/yards per attempt), mobility score (rushing yards/pass attempts), and passer rating all stack up eerily similar to Rodgers’ best three-season stretch (2014-16, the stretch following the fractured clavicle). Both control/controlled tempo, leveraging their efficiency and betting that the opponent can’t stay as consistent.
I don’t say that to ruffle feathers. I say that because I think a strong run of production may be coming, and last week was a signal (251 yards and three touchdowns in Seattle) as opposed to an excuse to sell.
Peak Aaron Rodgers:
- 2014, Weeks 7-14: QB1 in points per game
- 2015, Weeks 9-14: QB5 in points per game
- 2016, Weeks 7-14: QB1 in points per game
With time and comfort, the version of Rodgers that I’m comparing to Purdy dominated the middle of the season. As we approach that window for Purdy, he’s got a nice run coming up of QBs that will push him to put up fantasy numbers (Patrick Mahomes this week, followed by Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith, and Jordan Love).
Smith is the outlier, but we just saw Purdy go to Seattle and post a big week. The majority of those defenses give up over two-thirds of opponent yardage to come through the air, making them vulnerable to Purdy’s efficiency.
I suspect that Purdy isn’t viewed as a strong Tier 2 fantasy signal-caller by most and that the manager with him rostered might sweat the return of Christian McCaffrey. It might feel like a buy-high after a nice Week 7 — I think, in a month, the price you’re being asked to pay today will feel like a significant discount.
C.J. Stroud, QB | HOU (at GB)
There are a few games with more projected points, but would it surprise you in the least if this was the game on NFL RedZone the most this weekend?
It wouldn’t to me – I have both QBs ranked as top-five options at the position. We entered Week 6 worried about what Stroud would do without Nico Collins by his side, concerns that were logical given some underwhelming Week 6 numbers following the injury to his WR1.
Stroud answered those questions by completing seven of his first nine passes against the Patriots with a pair of touchdowns. The Packers have excelled at taking the ball away this season (nine interceptions), an interesting trend when put up against a QB in Stroud who set all sorts of efficiency records to start his career.
Green Bay has faced two pocket-oriented quarterbacks this season (Sam Darnold and Matthew Stafford) and coughed up at least 260 passing yards on both occasions. In the case of Darnold, those yards put him in position to score three times and post 20.5 fantasy points, the most scored by a QB against the Packers this season.
Stroud has cleared 330 passing yards or thrown three touchdown passes in each game during this three-game win streak – can he make it four straight?
Daniel Jones, QB | NYG (vs. PHI)
There simply is no middle ground for Jones these days – he’s ranked inside the top 12 at the position three times and outside the top 20 three times. He’s thrown just two touchdown passes in his past three games against the divisional rival (85 attempts), trending me toward a negative ranking.
The Eagles have yet to play a QB with Jones’ mobility profile, but Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins, and Jordan Love did all throw multiple touchdown passes against these Eagles. If we get good news on Malik Nabers, Jones’ status as a streamer elevates, but I’m not going to have him as a top-15 play regardless this week, as the middle tier of signal caller is exceptionally strong this week.
Deshaun Watson, QB | CLE (vs. CIN)
His positional finish has declined in four straight weeks, a hard thing to do when you consider that bye weeks have come into effect. I was excited to see if this struggling offense would be able to solve one of the worst defenses in the league, but with Amari Cooper being moved to Buffalo on Tuesday, this team is a D/ST target more than anything.
Watson again sits outside of my top 20 – hopefully, you have other options in a Superflex setting (but yes, I would start him over a WR3 if pressed).
Drake Maye, QB | NE (vs. JAX)
The rookie showed well in his first career start last week with 19.5 fantasy points (Jacoby Brissett didn’t have a single game with 11 points this season). Skeptics will point to the blowout nature of that game, and to them, I say … so what? Are you expecting the Patriots to be competitive on any sort of consistent basis?
The 40-yard touchdown to Kayshon Boutte was a thing of beauty and helped make up for his first 13 passes netting just 65 yards. I find it unlikely that Maye makes much noise in the way of wins and losses for New England, but I wouldn’t be shocked if his versatility resulted in a few usable fantasy weeks.
The Jags rank 27th in pressure and 31st in blitz rate this season – I’m using this week as one to further scout Maye and see if I can carve out an opponent profile that works for a late-season spot-start/cheap DFS build.
Geno Smith, QB | SEA (at ATL)
Smith has thrown at least 40 passes in four of his past five games, a level of volume that we are conditioned to chase. However, his aDOT is crashing, and his next multi-touchdown passing game will be his first of the season.
To a degree, the clock struck midnight on Thursday for Smith. He had been surviving on the fringes given his specific skill set (strong rushing productions or 50+ yard completions), but neither occurred against the 49ers after the DK Metcalf score was wiped off the board.
What we saw in Week 6, in my opinion, is the type of fantasy production that this profile deems most likely. With smoke and mirrors, Smith was a top-10 QB in four of his first five games, but this middling QB2 range is much more how I value him moving forward.
With just two teams on a bye this week, I’m not starting Smith in anything but the deepest of single-QB formats.
Jalen Hurts, QB | PHI (at NYG)
The Giants have allowed over 16 fantasy points to a quarterback four times this season, a list that includes Deshaun Watson and Geno Smith. Jalen doesn’t need a plus matchup, but it never hurts.
- Hurts’ last three vs. NYG: 44-of-73 (60.3%) for 530 yards, one TD, two INTs
Those are underwhelming numbers, but with both of his star receivers back last week, I’m not worried about history repeating itself in that regard. In Week 6, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith caught both of his touchdown passes and accounted for 68.2% of his passing yards.
Both receivers came out of the week healthy and with Philadelphia labeled as a three-point road favorite, I have zero hesitation in putting him inside of my top five at the position.
Jared Goff, QB | DET (at MIN)
And the nominee for “Wild Stat Guy of the Week” goes to … Mr. Goff!
Let’s start with the good, a set of numbers you’re likely familiar with. Goff has essentially been perfect for the past eight quarters, and no, that’s not an exaggeration:
- 43 attempts
- 36 completions
- 607 yards
- Five touchdowns
- Zero interceptions
He is the proud owner of a difficult-to-comprehend 137.5 passer rating against the blitz this season (current career high for a season: 108.3 in 2017 for the Rams). You can’t speed him up without getting diced up, but you also can’t sit back because the vertical attack has been used by the Lions to open up everything else. Goff has a 50+ yard completion in four of five games and those splash plays range in how they manifest — trickery to Sam LaPorta like last week or Jameson Williams running right past your helpless secondary.
All of those notes have me happy to be holding a Goff MVP ticket, but I promised you a bizarre stat and I’m nothing if not a man of my word.
- His last four games at Minnesota: 153 passes, two TDs, two INTs
- His last four home games vs. Minnesota: 145 passes, 13 TDs, one INT
That’s a phenomenal note if your league plays through Week 18 but a concerning one if you really need a win this week. Is that a predictive stat? Is it a storytelling stat? Heck, I have no idea what it means, but it’s factually accurate, and I try to give you the entire story whenever possible.
Goff ranks as a low-end QB1 for me this week, in the same neighborhood as other pocket-locked signal-callers like Brock Purdy (vs. KC) and Kirk Cousins (vs. SEA).
Jayden Daniels, QB | WAS (vs. CAR)
It feels like every week I leave more impressed with what Daniels is doing. Last week, even in a losing effort, I found his ability to excel in timing situations intoxicating. The highlight of the performance was the six-yard touchdown pass to Terry McLaurin that could not have been defended any better.
I could wax poetic about everything the rookie can do, but keeping things simple might be the best option in this spot. The Panthers rank 27th or worst in yards per attempt, passer rating, touchdown rate, first-down percentage, and essentially any other statistic you want to select from the buffet.
Daniels has been a QB1 in five of six weeks and could very well be the QB1 this week.
Joe Burrow, QB | CIN (at CLE)
Burrow has finished as a QB1 in five straight games, though his path to getting there on Sunday night was … odd.
- Weeks 1-5: 4% of fantasy points came on the ground
- Week 6: 58% of fantasy points came on the ground
I don’t think what we saw against the Giants is even remotely predictive, but he’s now planted the seed in the heads of opposing defenses, especially Cleveland, which has been victimized by mobile signal callers (Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, and Daniel Jones all cleared 19 points).
The one thing the Browns have done well this season is get to the quarterback. Through six weeks, they’ve applied pressure on 41.1% of dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the league. In most walks of life, that’s a valuable trait, but not here — Burrow is the proud owner of the highest pressured passer rating in the league (106.9).
I’m starting Burrow with confidence in this divisional spot and have him ranked as QB7.
Jordan Love, QB | GB (vs. HOU)
Including the playoffs, Love has 10 straight multi-passing TD games, joining Patrick Mahomes and Dan Marino as the only players in NFL history with such a streak before turning 26 years old. Packers fans appear to be spoiled with another franchise QB, and fantasy managers have to be thrilled with the elevated floor.
The early season MCL injury is pretty clearly in the rearview at this point — Love has been a top-five QB in two of his three games back. A quarterback has scored at least 19.5 points against the Texans three times this season, and I like Love’s chances to make it four. He’s my QB4 for the week and my top-ranked signal caller in this game.
Josh Allen, QB | BUF (vs. TEN)
On Monday night, Allen recorded his 21st game since 2020 (playoffs included) with multiple TD passes and a rush TD — no other player during that stretch has more than Kyler Murray’s 10. After yet another strong performance, he apologized for vulturing the goal-line touchdown:
“I stole one from the running backs. They worked hard to get us there. So I feel bad for them.”
He can feel bad all he wants as long as he doesn’t insist on giving them those carries moving forward. The Titans have strong numbers against opposing QBs this season, but they’ve largely faced pocket-locked dinosaurs. Malik Willis (73 rushing yards and a touchdown) produced the best fantasy stat line against them this season, and what is Willis but a very low-rent Allen?
With Amari Cooper joining this team on Tuesday, I’d listen to the argument for Allen as fantasy’s top per-game player the rest of the way. I still prefer Lamar Jackson, but we are splitting hairs – if you have Allen, his production is real and spectacular.
Justin Fields, QB | PIT (vs. NYJ)
What is best for the Steelers and what is best for fantasy managers doesn’t align in the case of this QB room. Fields’ metrics are trending in the wrong direction, thus the speculation about his job security with Russell Wilson now healthy; yet, he’s been a top-15 fantasy quarterback in four straight games.
The sub-60% completion rate in consecutive games is a concern for a team that just needs stability on the offensive end in order to be competitive. Wilson gives the Steelers a better chance to win over time while Fields gives fantasy managers more of a ceiling at the position.
Sadly, Mike Tomlin isn’t paid to support your Superflex roster.
Justin Herbert, QB | LAC (at ARI)
There are a handful of situations in the NFL this season where the game plan is to have their quarterback produce next to nothing in the way of fantasy numbers.
OK, OK — so maybe that’s not the “plan,” but the less that is asked of Herbert, the better things are going for the Bolts. Case in point: The Chargers are 3-2 without Herbert posting a single top-15 performance.
Rolling the dice on a quarterback, whether in a deep league or a DFS setting, facing the Cardinals will have my attention in most weeks. This, however, isn’t “most weeks.”
Kirk Cousins, QB | ATL (vs. SEA)
You’ll notice a theme as you navigate this piece – I don’t mind bucking the season-long numbers and fully targeting the Seahawks’ defense. Their overall numbers are inflated from a light schedule to open the season, and they’ve been vulnerable when facing even average offenses.
My concern here isn’t the quality of defense but rather how their approach works against what Cousins does well. This season, the veteran ranks fifth in non-pressured passer rating; that’s great, but he checks in at 24th when feeling the heat, and this Seahawks defense, flawed as it may be, apply pressure on 41.5% of dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the NFL.
I don’t think Cousins gets to the 22 points that Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, and Brock Purdy have dropped on Seattle, but he should be better than the Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and Skylar Thompson crew that this defense dominated.
Cousins is my QB13 this season, ranking behind Purdy and Baker Mayfield for context.
Kyler Murray, QB | ARI (vs. LAC)
Murray is an interesting option this week, as he’s largely been an all-or-nothing producer, and the potential of a dud increases dramatically should Marvin Harrison Jr. (concussion) be ruled out.
This season, he only has two finishes inside the top 15 at the position, but both of those were top-five weeks that likely helped you lock up a win. The Chargers defense has been stout, having allowed more than 13 fantasy points to a quarterback just twice this season, but in both of those situations, the signal caller cleared six points with their legs (Bo Nix and Justin Fields).
I have Murray ranked at the top of my low-end QB1 tier that extends down to QB13 Kirk Cousins. If you’re not feeling great about your quarterback position this week, you won’t be alone.
Lamar Jackson, QB | BAL (at TB)
Last week was a little disappointing as it was Jackson’s worst showing of the season in the best matchup he could ask for, but there’s no point in living in the past.
Jackson remains an elite option who is averaging a career-high in yards per attempt and out-of-pocket passer rating. The Bucs aren’t the vulnerable pass defense that they were a season ago, but they have allowed three mobile QBs to clear 16 fantasy points this season (Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, and Bo Nix), giving an already high-floor signal caller an even further elevated worst-case scenario.
Matthew Stafford, QB | LAR (vs. LV)
The projected return of Cooper Kupp puts Stafford back in the top-12 conversation when the matchup presents itself — and a low-pressure Raiders defense is just that.
Stafford’s passer rating when pressured:
- 2022: 69.6
- 2023: 75.7
- 2024: 40.1
Stafford’s passer rating when not pressured:
- 2022: 93.3
- 2023: 99.6
- 2024: 104.3
Despite the presence of Maxx Crosby, Vegas struggles as much as any team in the league to make opposing signal-callers uncomfortable, which makes the Raiders vulnerable to a vintage Stafford afternoon.
The Raiders are far from a solid run defense, and Kyren Williams will continue to be the focal point of the Rams’ offense. Yet, the projectable efficiency makes Stafford worth a DFS look.
Patrick Mahomes, QB | KC (at SF)
The Chiefs are one of four teams returning from a bye this week, and their franchise signal-caller has looked an awful lot like a veteran QB also coming off of a bye but happens to be off of fantasy radars completely:
Matthew Stafford:
- 1,238 pass yards
- 67.4% complete
- 1.0 TD/INT rate
- 16 deep completions
Mahomes:
- 1,235 pass yards
- 69.4% complete
- 1.0 TD/INT rate
- 13 deep completions
Malik Willis, Tua Tagovailoa, and Deshaun Watson are three names on the long list of quarterbacks with a higher peak weekly finish this season than Mahomes. The future Hall of Famer hasn’t been a top-15 QB since the first week of the season and has been intercepted in every game this season and yet …
The Chiefs are unbeaten.
That’s great for fans of Kansas City but disheartening for his fantasy managers. While the Chiefs can win in a multitude of ways, options like Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and even Jared Goff are asked to wear the cap for their respective teams, something that allows them to have access to a weekly fantasy ceiling that Mahomes just doesn’t.
Of course, counting out Andy Reid is dangerous and the odds are good that if you drafted Mahomes, you don’t have a reliable option that I have ranked ahead of him this week. That said, you need to adjust your expectations — as a football fan, you naturally lump Mahomes in with the best in the game, but that’s not the case in 2024 for fantasy purposes.
The only QB to reach 20 fantasy points against the 49ers this season is Kyler Murray (Week 5) — and he did so courtesy of 14.3 points as a runner (Mahomes has 8.3 this season). He’s a low-end QB1 for me this week and until I see a statistical reason to adjust.
Russell Wilson, QB | PIT (vs. NYJ)
If the veteran gets the nod, this is a good spot for him to separate from Justin Fields to be magnified. When comparing Fields’ numbers to those of Wilson’s last season, they are eerily similar in terms of release time, completion percentage, average depth of throw, and yards per attempt. The major difference among the profiles is passer rating when pressured (a 99.5-67.0 edge in favor of the veteran).
That’s not to say that Wilson is poised to succeed in this spot, but New York’s blitz rate has been trending up and the Steelers currently own the highest pressure rate allowed when the defense brings the heat. Could some of that be Fields’ inability to hit timing routes? It’s possible, but Wilson held onto the ball plenty last season — he just holds the edge in processing capacity and thus the ability to let the play run out.
If he gets the start, I think there’s a decent chance he has success by NFL standards, but he’s not a top-15 QB for me.
Sam Darnold, QB | MIN (vs. DET)
Darnold spent last week leading his USC Trojans out of the tunnel in a big game against Penn State. He’s been deserving of that honor and anything else we want to hand out up to this point. Darnold is leading an undefeated Vikings team and has three top-10 finishes on his 2024 ledger.
Has he figured out the NFL or has Kevin O’Connell figured him out? I really don’t care what the answer is, but we saw some kinks in the armor in London (14/31 for 179 yards with zero touchdowns and one interception against the Jets in Week 5).
The Lions are rather ordinary across the board statistically in terms of their pass defense, and they try to increase their impact on that side of the ball with aggression. Two months ago, I would have said, with confidence, that such a style makes Detroit a DST to stream and start DFS lineups. Now? Now I think that’s the worst way to attack the Vikings.
Entering this season, Darnold completed 59.4% of his passes when blitzed with more interceptions than touchdown tosses. This season — 70.4% completion with four scores and no interceptions, resulting in a near-perfect passer rating (149.2).
Darnold has been one of the most valuable pocket-locked quarterbacks in fantasy up to this point — I expect more of the same in this spot. It’s not comfortable, but his profile projects friendlier than Mahomes’.
You have to love fantasy, don’t you?
Trevor Lawrence, QB | JAX (vs. NE)
Lawrence has three straight games with multiple touchdown passes; yet, he still doesn’t have a top-10 finish on his ledger this season. There’s some upside to flirt with here from a profile point of view (career-highs in average depth of throw and yards per deep pass attempt), but I prefer him in a catch-up spot, something that is hard to envision happening Sunday morning.
There will be a spot to grab some DFS exposure (maybe Week 16 at Las Vegas), but outside of that, you don’t need to devote much brain power in this direction.
Tyler Huntley, QB | MIA (at IND)
I don’t have much in the way of confidence in the Colts’ defense, but I have less in Huntley, who, despite the weapons at his disposal, has a peak finish of QB19 thus far. In theory, a speed-oriented team on a fast track should be appealing, but we have no tangible evidence to suggest that going in this direction is a savvy play, even in GPP DFS situations.
Huntley has more fantasy points with his legs (10.7) than his arm (9.6) this season. The floor is low and the ceiling isn’t nearly high enough to roll the dice.
Will Levis, QB | TEN (at BUF)
The next time Will Levis finishes inside the top 20 producers at the position will be the first this season. We thought that the moves this offseason would foreshadow more fantasy intrigue for the second-year QB, but he’s reached 20 completions just once and has a 30-yard completion in just one game this year.
Getting the Bills on short rest is a good spot for most, but Tennessee’s primary threats in the passing game align on the perimeter, the strength of Buffalo’s pass defense. There aren’t five quarterbacks I’d be less inclined to play on this slate than the former second-round pick.
