Tyreek Hill and the Miami Dolphins are on bye in Week 6, but the offense has been struggling mightily since Tua Tagovailoa suffered his fourth concussion in five years. Where do Hill and the Dolphins go from here? Let’s break down Hill’s fantasy outlook and whether you should buy or sell the superstar wide receiver.
Should Fantasy Managers Buy or Sell Tyreek Hill?
Both Hill and Jaylen Waddle have struggled without Tagovailoa under center. Hill has only been targeted 39 times this season, which is tied for 17th-most in the NFL. Darnell Mooney, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Courtland Sutton have received more targets than Hill.
The Dolphins’ offense just hasn’t been able to get anything going, regardless of which backup QB is under center. After finishing as the WR2 in PRR and half-PPR leagues last season, Hill is currently the WR27 in PPR leagues and the WR28 in half-PPR leagues. Considering Hill was an early first-round pick in most leagues, his struggles have been extremely frustrating for fantasy managers.
Hill has just 23 catches for 286 receiving yards and one touchdown through six weeks. For context, through the first six weeks of last season, Hill had racked up 42 catches for 814 yards and six touchdowns.
Since joining the Dolphins in 2022, Hill has played 31 games with Tagovailoa and averaged 22.2 fantasy points per game in those contests. In seven games without Tua, Hill’s fantasy points per game drops to 12.9. If we isolate the games he’s played without Tagovailoa this season, Hill is putting up just 8.6 fantasy points per game.
Fortunately, Tagovailoa is expected to return at some point this season, so how should we evaluate Hill as a fantasy asset?
If you drafted Hill, you’re understandably frustrated and disappointed by his early-season production. But unless someone in your league wants to pay up for Hill based on name recognition and his past production, it will be difficult to get equal value for Hill in a trade, so it’s probably in your best interest to hold onto him.
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It’s typically a bad idea to sell a player when his trade value is at its lowest, and that’s the case for Hill right now. If you make him available, there’s a good chance the offers you receive will be underwhelming.
If Tagovailoa was out for the remainder season, selling Hill might be the answer. But with Tua expected to be back in the lineup in the next two or three weeks, there’s a good chance that Hill will be able to produce at a superstar level again. Remember, this is how he looked exactly one month ago.
Tyreek Hill. 80 yards for a TD!
📺: #JAXvsMIA on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/fNSbBgqRVI— NFL (@NFL)
I believe Hill can return to form once Tagovailoa is back under center in the near future. While the beginning of the fantasy season obviously matters, what’s most important is having Hill dominate like usual by the time the fantasy playoffs come around.
With that said, if your team is currently near the bottom of the standings and you desperately need wins, that’s a bit different. In that situation, you can’t afford to be patient, so try moving Hill for a WR2 and an RB3 who are healthy with late-season byes to help you secure some immediate wins.
If you don’t have Hill but he’s currently available in your league, I’m a proponent of buying low on him. The owner who drafted him is likely very frustrated, especially if his team has gotten off to a slow start. It’s not often that you can land a player of Hill’s caliber for pennies on the dollar, so I’m all for taking a flier on him and crossing your fingers that Tagovailoa returns soon.
Hill is listed as the WR14 in Pro Football Network’s rest-of-season rankings. If you can acquire Hill in exchange for Carolina Panthers wide receiver Diontae Johnson or Houston Texans wide receiver Stefon Diggs, I would do that in a heartbeat.
