There are two ways to play fantasy football. You can play it safe, or you can swing for the fences. It’s always risky to chase outliers, but outliers are how we separate from our competitors.
With that in mind, we’re going through bold fantasy takes for every NFL team, with this installment looking at the Chicago Bears.
Chicago Bears Bold Fantasy Prediction: Caleb Williams Becomes the First Rookie QB in NFL History To Support 2 Fantasy WR1s
Before he even set foot on an NFL field, Caleb Williams made history. No top draft pick has ever walked into as good of an offensive situation as Williams has with the new-look Bears.
Williams is the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. What if the hype is real? In this scenario, Williams has a rookie season even better than C.J. Stroud’s 2023. Not only does DJ Moore pay off at his WR22 ADP, but Keenan Allen does, too, in an even bigger way given his WR30 ADP.
Caleb Williams Fantasy Profile
Rookies are very good selections in fantasy football. You should aim to leave every single one of your drafts with at least two rookies. There’s a lot of value to be had.
Unfortunately, the value in rookies is almost entirely at running back and wide receiver. It’s exceedingly rare that we see rookie quarterbacks burst onto the scene to produce elite fantasy numbers.
C.J. Stroud had arguably the greatest rookie season by a QB in NFL history. He averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall QB7. As highly touted as Williams is, no one is expecting his rookie season to be as good as Stroud’s.
With that said, no No. 1 overall quarterback in the history of football has ever walked into a better situation than Williams in 2024. It’s probably true that no quarterback in general has entered the league setup better for success.
Most teams pick No. 1 overall because they are terrible and largely bereft of talent. Due to some quality offseason moves, the Bears added Keenan Allen and D’Andre Swift to an offense already featuring DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. They also used their other early first-round selection on WR Rome Odunze, who would easily be the rookie WR1 in most years.
Williams has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal. The Bears’ years of being a perennially weak offense appear to be over. They have very high offensive expectations right out of the gate. With all that said, it will still be difficult for Williams to return value in fantasy.
In modern fantasy football, it’s very difficult for non-rushing QBs to be greater than low-end QB1s. Williams is far from a statue in the pocket, but he doesn’t like to run. His rushing numbers declined in each of his collegiate seasons.
He’s certainly not about to see any designed rushes. All of his rushing yards will come from tactical scrambles, which he will only do when no one is open.
Fantasy managers should not expect more than an extra fantasy point per game due to rushing, which means Williams has to do it all through the air. As we’ve seen, it takes a lot of yards and a lot of touchdowns to get to 20 fantasy points per game exclusively through passing.
Check out Pro Football Network’s full fantasy football profile of Caleb Williams right here.Â
