The Chicago Bears have completely retooled their offense since last season. Spearheading the new era of Bears football is Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Can the rookie provide fantasy football QB1 numbers in his first year in the league?
Should You Select Caleb Williams at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 113th Overall (QB14)
- Challenging Rookie Expectations: Williams enters the NFL as the No. 1 overall pick, but rookie quarterbacks rarely produce elite fantasy numbers. While Williams has immense talent, it’s unlikely he will match the historical rookie season of C.J. Stroud, who averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game.
- Strong Supporting Cast: Williams joins a Bears offense that has been significantly upgraded with weapons like Keenan Allen, D’Andre Swift, DJ Moore, and rookie WR Rome Odunze. This supporting cast gives him a better setup than most No. 1 overall picks.
- ADP Analysis: Williams is currently being drafted as QB14, No. 113 overall. While this ADP reflects the excitement around his potential, there are other established quarterbacks available later who offer similar upside.
- Final Verdict: While Williams has the potential to be a great NFL quarterback, fantasy managers should be cautious about expecting QB1 production in his rookie season. He’s worth considering as a late-round gamble, but there may be safer options available at his ADP.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Caleb Williams
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Williams is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus QB rankings instead.
9) Dak Prescott, QB | Dallas Cowboys
10) Brock Purdy, QB | San Francisco 49ers
11) Jordan Love, QB | Green Bay Packers
12) Kirk Cousins, QB | Atlanta Falcons
13) Jayden Daniels, QB | Washington Commanders
14) Caleb Williams, QB | Chicago Bears
15) Jared Goff, QB | Detroit Lions
16) Tua Tagovailoa, QB | Miami Dolphins
17) Justin Herbert, QB | Los Angeles Chargers
18) Trevor Lawrence, QB | Jacksonville Jaguars
19) Aaron Rodgers, QB | New York Jets
Caleb Williams’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
Rookies are very good selections in fantasy football. You should aim to leave every single one of your drafts with at least two rookies. There’s a lot of value to be had.
Unfortunately, the value in rookies is almost entirely at running back and wide receiver. It’s exceedingly rare that we see rookie quarterbacks burst onto the scene to produce elite fantasy numbers.
C.J. Stroud had arguably the greatest rookie season by a QB in NFL history. He averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall QB7. As highly touted as Williams is, no one is expecting his rookie season to be as good as Stroud’s.
With that said, no No. 1 overall quarterback in the history of football has ever walked into a better situation than Williams in 2024. It’s probably true that no quarterback in general has entered the league setup better for success.
Most teams pick No. 1 overall because they are terrible and largely bereft of talent. Due to some quality offseason moves, the Bears added Keenan Allen and D’Andre Swift to an offense already featuring DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. They also used their other early first-round selection on WR Rome Odunze, who would easily be the rookie WR1 in most years.
Williams has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal. The Bears’ years of being a perennially weak offense appear to be over. They have very high offensive expectations right out of the gate. With all that said, it will still be difficult for Williams to return value in fantasy.
In modern fantasy football, it’s very difficult for non-rushing QBs to be greater than low-end QB1s. Williams is far from a statue in the pocket, but he doesn’t like to run. His rushing numbers declined in each of his collegiate seasons.
He’s certainly not about to see any designed rushes. All of his rushing yards will come from tactical scrambles, which he will only do when no one is open.
Fantasy managers should not expect more than an extra fantasy point per game due to rushing, which means Williams has to do it all through the air. As we’ve seen, it takes a lot of yards and a lot of touchdowns to get to 20 fantasy points per game exclusively through passing.
Is Williams a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
I really like Williams as a talent. It would be a major surprise if he wasn’t a very good NFL QB. I also fully expect him to be a QB1 in fantasy as early as 2025. But in 2024, what exactly are we expecting from him?
If Williams becomes the first 4,000-yard passer in Bears history while throwing for 35 touchdowns (plus the aforementioned extra point per game due to rushing), he will merely be around 18.5 fantasy points per game before factoring in turnovers. That sure feels like a true best-case-scenario rookie season for Williams. In all likelihood, it won’t quite be as prolific.
There’s certainly room for Williams to provide a positive return on investment at his QB12 ADP, No. 101 overall. However, several quarterbacks are going after him that are more established and provide similar if not greater upside.
I’m all for embracing uncertainty, especially in the later rounds. If you want to take a shot at Williams, don’t let me stop you. It’s unlikely you will have to draft him as your QB1.
But with guys like Justin Herbert and Kirk Cousins going multiple rounds later, I struggle to see the need to pay up for the unknown that is Williams. I have him ranked as my QB14, and by the looks of it, I won’t be drafting much of the rookie this season, despite my belief in his talent.