In the first season following the (final) retirement of quarterback Tom Brady, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers surprised many by winning the NFC South Division for the third straight season. They even got a win over the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Wild Card Game.
Despite just a 17-17 record in two seasons under head coach Todd Bowles, the Buccaneers are expected to contend once again for a division title in 2024. Are the expectations for Tampa Bay this season too high, or just right?
Here’s a look at what to expect from the Buccaneers this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Futures Odds
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
Super Bowl Odds:Â +8000
NFC Odds:Â +3500
NFC South Division Odds:Â +330
Win Total: 8.5 – Over (+125)/Under (-150)
To Make/Miss Playoffs: Make (+145)/Miss (-185)
Buccaneers Offense
While the Buccaneers return quarterback Baker Mayfield on a new three-year, $100 million contract and wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the offense was mediocre in 2023. Tampa Bay ranked 17th in passing offense (224.2 YPG) and had the league’s worst rushing offense (88.8 YPG).
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The big offseason signing for Tampa Bay was bringing back Mayfield, who is coming off the best season of his career. Now entering his seventh season, Mayfield passed for over 4,000 yards for the first time in his career (4,044), and his 28 touchdown passes were also a career high.
Perhaps the playoffs showed that the Buccaneers’ offense is going to lead the way again this season. They had over 400 total yards in back-to-back games just once, and it occurred in the playoffs against the Eagles and Detroit Lions.
Buccaneers Defense
While the passing game was the bright spot of the Bucs’ offense, their pass defense was among the worst in the league last season, ranking 29th in yards per game allowed (248.9). The defense also ranked in the bottom 10 in opponent pass yards per attempt (7.5 – 25th) and opponent pass attempts (611 – 27th).
They were in the top 10 in sacks with 48 (T-7th), but with so many opponent dropbacks, bettors have to reevaluate how impressive that sack total actually was.
The Buccaneers signed outside linebacker Randy Gregory in the offseason, but he was placed on the reserve/did not report list when training camp started. Safety Jordan Whitehead signed a two-year deal to return to the Buccaneers after spending the previous two seasons with the New York Jets.
One Betting Trend To Know
The Buccaneers were a terrific team for bettors last season, going 11-6 overall against the spread. They especially thrived on the road, going 8-2 ATS, including the playoffs.
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However, this may not come into play right away in 2024, as three of Tampa Bay’s first four games are at home.
Best Bet for Buccaneers in 2024
There are actually a couple of bets for Tampa Bay that could be worth pursuing. Getting +330 to win the NFC South Division seems like a gift. Not only have the Bucs won this division three straight seasons, but the betting favorite, the Atlanta Falcons, have had five straight losing seasons and now have a new head coach.
For me, however, I’m looking at the win total of 8.5 for my best bet. The schedule seems very favorable for the chances of at least nine wins for the Buccaneers this season. Over half of the Buccaneers’ 17 opponents — nine in all — finished 2023 with a losing record.
