Every year, we see players massively underachieve, and you’re likely going to have at least one of them on your roster; that’s just the nature of this game.
That said, the fantasy football tight end busts are important, as you are likely only leaving your draft with one player that plays the position.
You can overcome a dud season from a running back or wide receiver if you build out your roster in a smart way. Most sharp managers don’t leave the draft with multiple TEs, but if that’s your style, you’ll want to avoid these four names at cost.
Fantasy Football TE Busts
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: TE1)
If I’m spending a late-second/early third-round pick on a one-ish position (his current ADP checks in ahead of all quarterbacks), I want to be confident that this player has a level of fantasy upside we have yet to see.
Travis Kelce is great, but his best football is pretty clearly behind him. He averaged a career-low 1.83 PPR points per target in 2023, and while he always seems to have plenty of gas in the tank during the NFL playoffs (32 catches for 355 yards and three touchdowns during the Super Bowl run last year), the same cannot be said for crunch time during the fantasy season.
- Top-five finishes: 3
- Top-12 finishes: 7
- Finishes outside of the top 12: 7
- Finishes as TE20 or worse: 5 (excludes one DNP)
That’s Kelce’s resume over the past three seasons from Week 13 to Week 17. As Kansas City manages his body, he’s been just as likely to finish outside of the top 12 as inside it. And, 22.7% of the time, Kelce hasn’t been better than TE20.
I’m sorry, but that’s unacceptable. It’s also something that I have a hard time seeing turn around for a player who will be 35 when that stretch approaches this season.
There’s simply too much talent at the position now to justify spending this sort of capital. Mark Andrews is available around two rounds later if you want a veteran and Jake Ferguson will be there five rounds later if you want to be attached to a pass-centric offense.
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns (ADP: TE9)
If you’re simply looking at box scores from last season, falling in love with David Njoku is justifiable. In 2023, he set career highs in catches, targets, yards, and touchdowns with relative ease — not bad for a season in which the starting signal-caller was active for just six games.
The problem here is threefold:
- Njoku faces more target competition this season.
- The injury-prone quarterback still has the same shoulder injury to worry about.
- The backup quarterback has changed.
Jerry Jeudy’s addition may not seem like an overly impactful move, but for a team that ranked 23rd in pass rate over expectation last season — despite Nick Chubb missing the majority of the season — there isn’t a ton of wiggle room in terms of opportunity count.
- With Deshaun Watson: 1.7 points per target, 14.7% target share, 1.3 aDOT
- With Joe Flacco: 2.1 points per target, 24.6% target share, 6.7 aDOT
Without context, you can see the significant spike in a split that won’t matter for 2024; Flacco is backing up Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis now, while Jameis Winston has taken second in command in Cleveland.
With context, the difference is mind-boggling …
- 2023 Gerald Everett: 1.6 points per target, 20.1% target share, 4.2 aDOT
- 2023 Sam LaPorta: 2.0 points per target, 21,7% target share, 7.4 aDOT
It should go without saying that Njoku is likely to finish somewhere between LaPorta and Everett, but the fact that he was unusable in the small sample with Watson is enough for me to look elsewhere.
The opportunity cost in this spot is prohibitive. In drafting Njoku, you’re not only taking on risk at the tight end position, but you’re also passing on potential league-winning receivers in Jayden Reed and Rashee Rice.
Heck, if I had to roll the dice on a Brown in this range, give me some Chubb with the thought that he can peak at the perfect time.
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP: TE11)
The preseason usage all over the formation is encouraging, and my fade of Brock Bowers doesn’t exclude him from having a few spike weeks. He’s a strong prospect and should have his moments, but I expect this offense to be rather conservative with quality-of-throw issues and a target monster in Davante Adams.
That doesn’t exactly set up for a tight end to produce on a regular basis, even if he completely dominates the positional target share (something that isn’t a given entering the season).
If the idea of drafting Bowers is that he will improve with time and round into form for the playoffs, like many rookie pass catchers do, why not take T.J. Hockenson one-and-a-half rounds later?
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears (ADP: TE15)
There isn’t much in the way of draft capital currently being spent on Cole Kmet, and that’s the way it should be. That said, I’ve been in plenty of early drafts where a manager or two has punted the position and Kmet’s name pops up as an option.
What’s the story you have to tell for this to work out well?
Well, you’d need Caleb Williams to produce at (or above) expectations while not heavily featuring any of his three high-pedigree receivers and getting noted tight-end rotator Shane Waldron to change his stripes.
That is one heck of a parlay to place in the chase for a limited ceiling.
At this point in the draft, I’d rather fully embrace variance.
What if Taysom Hill is truly going to be used more?
What if Todd Monken identifies Isaiah Likely as Baltimore’s third-best pass catcher and runs out two-TE sets on a regular basis?
A touchdown didn't seem too Likely in the first half…
Isaiah Likely First TD Scorer (+2500)
$25 paid out $700🤑pic.twitter.com/5rsitmzd6G
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook)
Punting the position isn’t a bad play (though it is harder to do than in years past).
Kmet just looks, to me, like the wrong way to do so.
