We are now nearing the end of August, which means the NFL regular season is right around the corner. It also means we are entering the heart of fantasy football draft season.
As important as it is to find players who will outperform their average draft positions, it is equally important to avoid the players who finish below them.
With that in mind, here are my top running back busts for 2024.
Fantasy Football Running Back Busts
The term “bust” feels a bit harsh. It’s something about the word. Really, all it means is a player whom we think will finish significantly lower than his ADP suggests he should.
Here are a few running backs fantasy managers should avoid at their ADPs.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: RB17)
It’s really difficult to understand Kenneth Walker III’s ADP.
After a strong rookie season that saw him average 13.5 fantasy points per game, there was an expectation that Walker would take a step forward as a sophomore. Instead, he had mostly the same season, averaging 13.3 PPG.
Walker was the overall RB16 as a rookie and RB20 in his second year. Now, with a new coaching staff that did not draft him and a new offensive coordinator who likes to push the ball downfield, there’s progression baked into Walker’s price? Make it make sense.
The Seattle Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second round last year. Charbonnet was quite good as a rookie. Most importantly, he was the clear preferred option on passing downs.
Per TruMedia, Charbonnet played 321 snaps on passing downs compared to Walker’s mere 233. The Seahawks could be even more pass-heavy this season under offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb.
Walker’s snap share was 54.5% last season. It’s difficult to envision that increasing.
For Walker to live up to his ADP, he will have to do it with efficiency and touchdowns. Well, he scored nine times last season. It’s hard to project him for more. But there’s definitely a world where Charbonnet eats into Walker’s workload more significantly or even flips the timeshare.
Walker is being drafted at his ceiling. The most likely outcome is he finishes in the RB20 to RB24 range, which would make him a disappointment at his ADP.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears (ADP: RB21)
This isn’t a high-confidence bust call. I just can’t shake the feeling that something isn’t right with D’Andre Swift.
Twice in the past two seasons, an NFL team decided it did not want Swift. For a guy that seemed so talented over his first two years in the league, it just feels like there’s something behind the scenes that we, as lowly fantasy managers watching this game, are not privy to.
Aside from these unprovable feelings, there’s also tangible data. Let’s take Swift’s 2023 season. He ran behind a very good Philadelphia Eagles offensive line, handled a career-high 229 carries, and ran for over 1,000 yards. Yet, he only averaged 12.5 fantasy points per game.
The Chicago Bears look like they are going to have a really good offense, but is it actually a better environment for Swift? This projects to be a pass-first offense, and I’m not entirely sure Swift will be the receiving back. He only saw a 10% target share last season.
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Furthermore, even if Swift is the receiving back, it would be less likely that he’s the goal-line back. We may get receptions or touchdown opportunities, but we probably won’t get both.
Most importantly, and perhaps I am reading too much into it, the preseason has indicated a troubling trend. The Bears played their starters plenty in the preseason. Khalil Herbert was getting a whole lot of burn with the starters.
Swift is not going to be more than a 50% guy… and that’s assuming Roschon Johnson doesn’t have a regular role. This could be something like a 45-35-20 split, which would be a nightmare for fantasy managers.
Trey Benson, RB, Arizona Cardinals (ADP: RB38)
Given that Trey Benson is being drafted as a low RB3, he’s not the type of player we’d typically look at as a potential bust. But any player is a bust if he finishes well below expectation relative to cost.
James Conner is the clear top running back for the Arizona Cardinals. As of early August, Emari Demercado was operating as the RB2, per camp reports.
This isn’t necessarily abnormal. Rookies sometimes have to “earn their spot.” But I think fantasy managers are drafting Benson as if he’ll inevitably take over for Conner.
Conner is probably going to get hurt at some point, giving Benson a chance, but the Cardinals like the veteran. He’s been very reliable when on the field since they signed him.
I don’t think Benson is actually a threat to Conner’s workload. As a result, I have Benson ranked as my RB46, well below his ADP.
Benson is being drafted as if there’s a path to him earning a meaningful role alongside Conner. I believe Benson’s only chance of getting significant playing time is a Conner injury.
Even in the case that Benson does take over, if Conner remains healthy for the first month of the season, we are likely going to see many fantasy managers drop Benson. That is not the type of player you want to draft.
