Christian McCaffrey should go No. 1 overall in every one-quarterback fantasy football draft. The next few picks may be wide receivers, but the next running back off the board is either Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall.
Should fantasy managers draft the Atlanta Falcons RB as the overall RB2?
Bijan Robinson’s Fantasy Profile For the 2024 NFL Season
To give you an idea of how high I was on Robinson last season, for a brief moment, I considered ranking him above McCaffrey. Although I wound up allowing cooler heads to prevail, watching Robinson play, it was easy to see why I considered it.
Robinson showed proficiency as a receiver, leading all running backs with a 17.2% target share. In total, he led the position in routes run. Robinson was also effective at making defenders miss, as evidenced by his 23.2% evaded-tackles-per-touch rate (11th in the league) and 3.83 yards created per touch (12th).
Overall, Robinson was a disappointment for whoever drafted him last season. His 14.5 fantasy points per game were good for an RB17 finish. Those aren’t disastrous numbers, but it’s certainly lower than expected based on where he was drafted.
The main issue with the rookie was his usage.
The Falcons’ former head coach, Arthur Smith, oversaw a team that took a mega-talented running back at No. 8 overall and decided that guy only warranted 47% of his team’s carries. Why? Because he needed to give the ball to (checks notes) fifth-round sophomore RB Tyler Allgeier and 31-year-old WR/RB convert Cordarrelle Patterson.
The offensive environment projects to be significantly better for Robinson this season. Even if the only change made was replacing Smith with Raheem Morris, who gave the keys to the offense to Sean McVay disciple Zac Robinson, that would’ve been enough to propel him to the top three at the position.
Fortunately, Atlanta also upgraded at quarterback, signing Kirk Cousins to replace Desmond Ridder. Although Cousins is 36 years old and coming off a torn Achilles, by all accounts, he’s fully healthy and ready to rock.
Robinson is also further insulated from poor QB play. If Cousins goes down again, rookie first-rounder Michael Penix Jr. should be able to keep the offense afloat in a way Ridder could not.
Is Robinson a Good Fantasy Pick?
A few years ago, we’d be getting a nice discount on him in light of his disappointing rookie season. But the modern game is a different beast. Fantasy managers are smarter than ever. They know Robinson’s struggles weren’t his fault and that he’s poised to explode this year.
With that said, I still think Robinson is cheaper than he should be. His ADP is the overall RB3. It’s a complete toss-up whether you go with Robinson or Hall as the second RB off the board. However, the fantasy community seems to feel Hall is easily the better option.
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Hall is going at No. 5 overall, while Robinson goes No. 6 overall. That means there are two wide receivers viewed as less valuable than Hall, but more valuable than Atlanta’s star. I respectfully disagree.
If McCaffrey is not on the board when I am on the clock and Robinson is, the draft slot doesn’t matter. Robinson is the pick.
The most valuable asset in fantasy remains the elite running back. In the modern NFL, so few backs are true workhorses. When you are in a position to draft one of them, you must.
McCaffrey, Robinson, and Hall are the only three running backs who are elite talents projected for goal-line work and high target shares. They are the cornerstones of great fantasy teams. If you prefer Hall to Robinson, that’s perfectly fine. But Robinson is my No. 2 ranked player, poised for a monster season, and should be drafted as such.
