The Houston Texans shocked the NFL world last season when they won 10 games and the AFC South. Why was that such a surprise? Well, the Texans had won just three games in 2022 and finished in last place in their division.
With Houston going from worst to first in the AFC South in 2023, might a team in the NFC replicate Houston’s worst-to-first ways this season?
You can check out our full NFL worst-to-first candidate rankings here, and in this story, we look at the four NFC teams who finished last in 2023, how they stack up with each other in terms of odds of finishing in first place this season, and where they rank among the eight last-place teams from a year ago.
Which NFC Teams Could Go Worst to First in 2024?
4) Arizona Cardinals (7th overall)
NFC West Odds: +1300
Why Cardinals can win division: Although Arizona finished just 4-13 in head coach Jonathan Gannon’s debut season, you can’t say they weren’t interesting.
Kyler Murray, who returned from a torn ACL at midseason, looked more comfortable in OC Drew Petzing’s offense as the season progressed and now has WR Marvin Harrison Jr. at his disposal. Veteran Jonah Williams and rookie Isaiah Adams could bolster the Cardinals’ front five, while rookie RB Trey Benson may share time with James Conner in the backfield.
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On defense, Arizona added volume-based depth along the defensive line and at cornerback, which were the club’s two primary roster concerns. Veterans like DT Bilal Nichols, DT Justin Jones, and CB Sean Murphy-Bunting should raise the Cards’ defensive floor, while early-round rookies such as EDGE Darius Robinson and CB Max Melton could help the ceiling.
Why they can’t: Arizona is still squarely behind the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, and Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West. The 49ers and Rams are favored to repeat as playoff contenders in 2024, and the Seahawks still have more talent than the Cardinals.
While the Cardinals buoyed their roster this offseason, they still have work to do. Could a surprise Wild Card berth be on the horizon in 2024? Maybe — but it still feels like Arizona is a year away.
3) Carolina Panthers (6th overall)
NFC South Odds: +1100
Why Panthers can win division:Â Carolina is giving second-year QB Bryce Young every chance to succeed. First, the Panthers hired former Tampa Bay Buccaneers OC Dave Canales as head coach after he helped signal-callers like Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield resurrect their careers.
Carolina then drafted RB Jonathan Brooks, traded for WR Diontae Johnson, and paid up for free agent guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis — all in the name of surrounding Young with a workable talent base. The former No. 1 overall pick’s rookie season was an unmitigated disaster, but it’s too early to give up on Young.
MORE: Try PFN’s 2024 NFL Playoff Predictor
Meanwhile, the Panthers play in the NFL’s weakest division and boast the league’s fifth-easiest schedule.
Why they can’t: The only problem? All four teams in the NFC South have top-seven-easiest schedules. This is a weak division, but the Panthers are squarely at the bottom. There is still a sizeable gap in roster strength between Carolina and the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the latter of which has won the NFC South three years running.
It’s all on Young’s shoulders now, and it’s fair to ask whether the 2021 Heisman winner can succeed in the NFL.
Last season, Young’s 33.4 QBR was second worst in the league, ahead of only Zach Wilson. He ranked dead last with 3.68 adjusted net yards (ANY/A) per attempt. Since 2000, only three first-round quarterbacks have posted worse Year 1 ANY/A marks. One was Matthew Stafford (2009), but the other two were Josh Rosen (2018) and David Carr (2002).
2) Washington Commanders (5th overall)
NFC East Odds: +800
Why Commanders can win division: If there’s a 2024 version of the 2023 Houston Texans — a dismal club from the year prior that makes a surprising run to the playoffs — it could be the new-look Commanders.
Washington concocted the NFC’s best offseason, revamping their offense with No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels while surrounding him with new veterans in RB Austin Ekeler, TE Zach Ertz, and offensive lineman Tyler Biadasz and Nick Allegretti. Can Kliff Kingsbury get the most out of Daniels in Year 1?
MORE: Try PFN’s 2024 NFL Playoff Predictor
Defensive improvement should be easier to attain, given that the Commanders ranked near the bottom of the league in nearly every metric. Washington is starting fresh under Dan Quinn and added help at every level with EDGE Dorance Armstrong, DT Johnny Newton, LBs Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner, CB Mike Sainristil, and S Jeremy Chinn.
Why they can’t:Â The NFC East is too challenging. The Philadelphia Eagles collapsed in 2023 but hired new coordinators on both sides of their ball and appeared to have ameliorated their defensive issues. And while the Dallas Cowboys could take a step back after a quiet offseason, any club with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Micah Parsons will win games.
The Commanders are on the right path, but 2024 probably won’t end with a postseason berth.
1) Chicago Bears (2nd overall)
NFC North Odds: +265
Why Bears can win division: Chicago hasn’t made the postseason in four years and hasn’t posted a winning record since 2018. Still, Caleb Williams’ arrival — and the Bears’ late-season defensive turnaround in 2023 — could make Chicago a potential playoff team next year.
GM Ryan Poles acquired pass rusher Montez Sweat at last year’s trade deadline, and the Bears didn’t let up once the offseason officially started. Chicago traded for Chargers WR Keenan Allen and drafted WR Rome Odunze, pairing them with DJ Moore to form one of the NFL‘s best wideout tandems. Free agent RB D’Andre Swift is also on board, while Poles extended CB Jaylon Johnson and signed S Kevin Byard to fortify the Bears’ defense.
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Why they can’t: Chicago wasn’t the only NFC North to improve over the 2024 offseason. The Detroit Lions solved their cornerback problem and fortified their offensive line. The Green Bay Packers fixed the spine of their defense and added RB Josh Jacobs. And while the Minnesota Vikings suffered numerous losses, they still have an above-average roster.
Since 2011, only nine full-time rookie starting quarterbacks have taken their respective teams to the playoffs. Stroud, Brock Purdy, and Mac Jones have done it over the past three seasons — can Williams follow in their footsteps in 2024?
