The Tennessee Titans added three new pieces to their offense this offseason. While this presents more target competition for DeAndre Hopkins, is he still someone fantasy football managers should be targeting in the later rounds? What does his projection look like?
DeAndre Hopkins’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 11.3
- Receptions: 67
- Receiving Yards: 851
- Receiving TDs: 6.6
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Hopkins This Year?
It was definitely a rough year for the future Hall-of-Famer in 2023. Hopkins, who was drafted in 2013, had his worst season since that year — averaging 13.2 fantasy points per game, finishing as the WR29. Yet, somehow, Hopkins’ season was actually even worse.
Hopkins scored 34.8 fantasy points in Week 8 and 25.4 in Week 14. In his other 15 games, Hopkins averaged 10.9 fantasy ppg. He posted nine games with 10.5 points or less and was far from a weekly starter in fantasy.
Ironically, Hopkins’ usage was more in line with his early years than after he established himself as an elite receiver. He saw a fantastic 28.6% target share and was targeted on a whopping 27.8% of his routes run, which were 12th and ninth in the NFL, respectively.
Hopkins also saw plenty of downfield targets. His 14.0 aDOT (average depth of target) was 15th in the league. Yet, he only averaged 7.8 yards per target. That was largely due to poor quarterback play resulting in a high rate of uncatchable targets.
So, Hopkins was low-key pretty bad last season.
The Titans have since added Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, and Tony Pollard. Their starter at quarterback is Will Levis, who I do not believe is anything more than a low-end NFL starter/high-end backup.
Surely, that means I’m about to tell you to fade Hopkins, right? Right? Wrong! I actually couldn’t be more in on Hopkins this season.
The Titans are set to undergo a massive shift in offensive identity. For the past half-decade, the offense has run through Derrick Henry. That is no longer the case.
Henry is gone. The Titans’ three key offseason additions all contribute to the passing attack. Levis is a gunslinger. New head coach Brian Callahan was previously the offensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals where he orchestrated one of the most pass-first offenses in the league.
Last year, the Bengals threw 63% of the time in neutral game scripts. As a reminder, Joe Burrow was fully healthy for all of about three games last season. Even with Jake Browning, the Bengals were airing it out.
The Titans threw the ball 55% of the time in neutral game scripts last season. That number could easily push 60% this year. But what about the target competition?
Pollard is a good receiver, but running backs aren’t taking targets from wide receivers. Ridley certainly will command more volume than the cavalcade of misfits the Titans deployed behind Hopkins last season. But Ridley wasn’t exactly all that effective at getting open. Hopkins, despite being 31 years old, actually was.
DeAndre Hopkins tied Garrett Wilson for 4th in open score behind only Allen, CeeDee Lamb, and Tyreek Hill.
His per-route data has rebounded late in his career, and Hopkins was great vs. man coverage in 2023. pic.twitter.com/XHpvw03Q7D
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23)
My policy on older players has shifted. I will fade them based on age-related decline when they show obvious signs of decline.
Hopkins is still winning against man coverage. There’s reason to believe he can age more like Larry Fitzgerald than Julio Jones. The man still posted 2.16 yards per route run last season despite a slew of uncatchable targets and overall poor quarterback play.
Hopkins still has it. And I believe he is the clear WR1 on the Titans — not Ridley. As a result, I project Hopkins for a 24% target share, which is a 4.6% decrease from last season. Yet, he is projected to average 13.69 fantasy points per game, putting him at WR26 in the projections.
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I am quite a bit more bullish on Hopkins than the PFN consensus projections, which him right around his WR40 ADP. And I expect that to fall even further in light of his preseason knee sprain.
The injury does give me a bit more pause, given his age. However, I also expect it to land me a full round discount by the time drafts roll around.
I did lower Hopkins to my WR44, but I still am interested in drafting him. He may not have WR1 upside anymore, but even if he’s the same guy he was last year (albeit with a bit more weekly consistency), Hopkins is well worth selecting at his ADP. He’s being drafted at his floor.
