San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey has been a fantasy football cheat code for the majority of his NFL career and certainly since he was traded out west. His floor/ceiling combination is undeniable –- should that lock him into the first-overall selection in all drafts this season?
Christian McCaffrey’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- PPR Fantasy Points: 440 (342 non-PPR)
- Passing TD: 1
- Rushing Yards: 1,510
- Rushing TDs: 10
- Receptions: 99
- Receiving Yards: 872
- Receiving TDs: 6
Raise your hand if you can't wait to watch Christian McCaffrey again this season 🖐️
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/GDgJwEZ1Vw
— FanDuel (@FanDuel)
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft McCaffrey This Year?
What more is there to say about McCaffrey? After posting a dominant regular season (career highs in rushing yards, yards per carry, and total touchdowns), he saw his carry count and receiving yardage increase with each playoff game (five touchdowns in three contests).
There may be a running back out there who will push CMC for the league lead in touches (Bijan Robinson?) or touchdowns (the betting markets like Derrick Henry), but his equity in both categories speaks to a rare floor/ceiling combination.
McCaffrey has missed just one game over the past two seasons, dispelling the injury-prone myth after he sat 23 times in the two seasons prior — the one true flaw that we’ve seen from him during his seven NFL seasons. His August calf injury isn’t ideal, but he has nothing to prove during the summer and all reports have expressed optimism surrounding his Week 1 availability.
“Availability” is the reason most people fade the RB position in the first round, but with that concern not coming into the picture in consecutive seasons, McCaffrey’s case is as strong as any receiver for being the first player selected in redraft leagues this summer.
Let’s call McCaffrey what he is — the perfect fantasy mix of a receiver and a running back. He’s caught 80.4% of his targets since joining the Niners while also handling the valuable carries inside the scoring area (league-high 63 red-zone carries in 2023).
That provides stable base production, and if I need to sell you on CMC’s per-touch upside, you haven’t been paying attention (he had a 50+ yard run or a 25+ yard catch in seven games last year).
I’m penciling in some regression for Brock Purdy this season, which will impact the pass catchers in the 49ers’ offense, but McCaffrey’s route tree should free him from much of that back-tracking.
McCaffrey’s versatility makes him the most matchup-proof player in our game. Even if you’re not of that belief, the fact that his tougher contests come early in the season (New York Jets and New England Patriots in September) frees him up for end-of-season fireworks.
The 49ers own an elite defense, which means the offense isn’t always pressed to put up big numbers. That, however, is not something I expect to be the case in the fantasy Super Bowl. The standard ESPN fantasy league ends with a two-week title matchup in Weeks 16 and 17, where San Francisco plays…
- at Miami Dolphins
- vs. Detroit Lions
Both of those offenses were top five in yardage and points a season ago, making them as likely as any team in the league to push McCaffrey and Company.
If the 49ers are going to score, it’s going through their All-Pro running back. With Brandon Aiyuk ranking among our top players who could seek a trade, McCaffrey’s usage might be more likely to increase from his already otherworldly rates.
Jason Katz’s Analysis of McCaffrey’s Fantasy Value in 2024
Fantasy managers can and should have zero concerns about McCaffrey’s effectiveness. With that said, it’s at least worth considering that he is 28 years old with 1,948 career touches.
McCaffrey has a shade under 800 touches over the past two seasons, both of which saw him play more games than he ever did in Carolina due to the 49ers actually being able to advance deep into the postseason.
There’s also the matter of his preseason calf injury, which is being described as minor, and not a concern for his Week 1 availability. McCaffrey won’t play in the preseason, but it’s not as if the injury has anything to do with it — he wasn’t playing in the preseason anyway.
Fantasy managers may recall McCaffrey suffered a similar injury in Week 17 of last season. He sat out a meaningless Week 18 game, had the week off for the team’s bye, and was fine for the remainder of the postseason. The calf is not a reason to fade McCaffrey.
In fact, there’s no tangible reason to fade McCaffrey. We’ve seen exactly zero signs of decline. There’s also no argument for any running back other than McCaffrey as the overall RB1.
If McCaffrey fails, it will be because of injury. But we can’t predict that. Those fading him last year tried and likely went with the “safer” route of WRs like Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase. How’d that work out?
Outside of those two years in 2020 and 2021, McCaffrey has been healthy his entire career. The reality is football is a violent game where players get hurt. It’s going to happen again this year. If it does, that’s just bad luck.
All we can do is take the best players at every possible pick. From the moment your fantasy draft starts, McCaffrey is the best player.
