After a scorching start to the season, Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa couldn’t quite sustain QB1 levels of production. Now entering his fifth season, can Tagovailoa take a step forward and provide fantasy football managers with production commensurate with the bevy of offense weapons at his disposal?
Tua Tagovailoa’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
After three weeks last season, it looked like the Dolphins’ offense had the potential to be one of the best of all time. Tagovailoa opened the season with 28.1 fantasy points, finishing as the week’s top quarterback. After a down Week 2, he returned with 28.2 points in Week 3.
Tagovailoa wasn’t quite as good over the next few weeks, but he had games of 18.9, 22.5, and 22.8 in there. Then, over the second half of the season, something changed.
From Week 9 onward, Tagovailoa didn’t register a single game of 20 fantasy points. He had as many games under 10 (two) as over 18. Tagovailoa finished the season as the overall QB16, averaging 16.7 fantasy points per game.
It’s easy to say Tagovailoa didn’t play as well in the second half. Jaylen Waddle was banged up throughout the year, and Tyreek Hill suffered a late-season ankle injury that clearly hindered him. None of this is false, but Tagovailoa’s total performance was pretty good.
Tua led the NFL with 4,624 passing yards. He threw 29 touchdowns, tied for fifth-most in the league, and completed 69.3% of his passes, which would be tops in the league most years. The 14 interceptions weren’t great, but they have a negligible impact on his fantasy points per game.
What’s the deal?
Unfortunately, in modern fantasy football, it’s extremely difficult to post QB1 numbers without rushing. Tua, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, and Matthew Stafford were the four main fantasy-relevant QBs who contributed absolutely nothing on the ground. Cousins was the only one to post QB1 numbers, averaging 19.3 points per game at the time he went down for the season.
Tagovailoa did say he shed some weight this offseason in an effort to help him be more nimble in the pocket. While I do buy this could help him avoid sacks and pressure, he’s not going to suddenly become a scrambling quarterback. The only way Tagovailoa can post QB1 numbers is if he throws for a bunch of yards and a lot of touchdowns.
Now, to be fair, there is a scenario where Tua can throw 40 touchdowns. The Dolphins scored 57 offensive touchdowns last season, with 27 of them coming on the ground. That type of split is not particularly sticky from year to year. By sheer variance, Tagovailoa could be better this season. But elite QB1 numbers? That’s just not in his range of outcomes.
Tagovailoa’s ADP sits at QB15, No. 113 overall. While I have him ranked QB15, right in line with consensus, I don’t anticipate drafting Tua anywhere this season.
Tagovailoa is fine as a backup to a more volatile starter like Anthony Richardson, Jayden Daniels, or Caleb Williams. If one of those guys gets hurt or doesn’t pan out, Tagovailoa provides a solid safety net.
The reason I’m not particularly interested is because there are several other quarterbacks who provide a similar safety net. I will just take the ones who are cheaper.
Goff, Cousins, Stafford, Justin Herbert, and Aaron Rodgers all go behind Tagovailoa. At the point of a draft when you must push the button on Tua, instead, opt for another WR or RB, and then take one of the aforementioned guys a couple of rounds later.
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Insight on Tua Tagovailoa
We know what Tagovailoa’s upside is. He showcased it at the beginning of last season, posting 28.1 fantasy points and finishing as the week’s top quarterback. He underwhelmed in Week 2 but then exploded for another 28.2 points in Week 3.
The next few weeks weren’t as good, but Tua had plenty of usable games, including 18.9, 22.5, and 22.8 fantasy points. Unfortunately, that was the last of Tagovailoa’s fantasy value.
From Week 9 through the end of the season, he didn’t register a single game of 20 fantasy points. Tua had as many games under 10 (two) as over 18. He finished the season as the overall QB16, averaging 16.7 fantasy points per game.
To properly project him going forward, we have to figure out why Tagovailoa wasn’t usable for the entire second half of last season. Did he play poorly? Not really.
Tua led the NFL with 4,624 passing yards. He threw 29 touchdowns, tied for fifth-most in the league, and completed 69.3% of his passes, which would be best in most years. The 14 interceptions weren’t great, but they have a negligible impact on his fantasy points per game.
This Dolphins offense is capable of scoring a lot of points. They scored 57 touchdowns last season. If they perform at a similar level this year, Tagovailoa can probably exceed his TD total from last season.
By no means is 29 a low number. However, when an offense scores 57 times, we’d expect the QB to account for at least 35 of them. Instead, Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane combined for 26 touchdowns on the ground.
In my projections, I have a handful of those shifting to the air, with Tagovailoa projected for 32.2 passing touchdowns. Combined with 4,830 passing yards, I have him averaging 19.05 fantasy points per game, which would be a career-high.
Even with this improvement, Tagovailoa only projects as the QB11, with not much separating him from the QB15. The PFN consensus projections have Tua as QB15, which is actually where I have him ranked.
