Tony Pollard’s Fantasy Profile: The Titans RB Has a Wide Range of Outcomes

Tony Pollard finally got his chance to be a lead back last season on one of the best offenses in football. However, he thoroughly underwhelmed to the point where the Dallas Cowboys were willing to let him walk. Now, once again, a committee back, this time with the Tennessee Titans, should fantasy football managers be interested in Pollard this season?

Should You Select Tony Pollard at His Current ADP?

PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 78th Overall (RB26)

• Underwhelming Lead Back Season: After finally getting his chance as the Cowboys’ lead back in 2023, Pollard struggled to live up to expectations. He saw a career-high 252 rush attempts but managed only 4.0 yards per carry, leading to a disappointing season for fantasy managers.
• Decreased Efficiency: Pollard’s receiving efficiency also dropped, with just 311 receiving yards on 55 catches. His yards per route run fell to 0.86, ranking 34th in the league, and he only scored six touchdowns on a high-powered Cowboys offense.
• New Role in Tennessee: Now with the Titans, Pollard enters a backfield split with Tyjae Spears, who shares a similar skill set. This makes projecting volume and fantasy value challenging as the Titans’ offense undergoes changes with a new quarterback and additional receiving threats.
• ADP Analysis: Pollard’s current ADP at RB26, No. 78 overall, may be too high given the uncertainties in Tennessee’s backfield. Fantasy managers might find better value in drafting Spears, who is ranked just behind Pollard but offers similar upside.
• Final Verdict: While Pollard has the potential for upside, especially in case of an injury to Spears, the uncertainty in his role and the Titans’ offensive dynamics make him a risky pick at his current ADP. It’s challenging to recommend drafting Pollard over other similarly ranked backs this season.

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PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Tony Pollard

Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Pollard is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus RB rankings instead. 

30) Raheem Mostert, RB | Miami Dolphins
31) Ezekiel Elliott, RB | Dallas Cowboys
32) Javonte Williams, RB | Denver Broncos
33) Devin Singletary, RB | New York Giants
34) Gus Edwards, RB | Los Angeles Chargers
35) Tony Pollard, RB | Tennessee Titans
36) Nick Chubb, RB | Cleveland Browns
37) Austin Ekeler, RB | Washington Commanders
38) Trey Benson, RB | Arizona Cardinals
39) Chase Brown, RB | Cincinnati Bengals
40) Zach Charbonnet, RB | Seattle Seahawks

Tony Pollard’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season

In October 2020, I first publicly stated that Pollard was better than Ezekiel Elliott. For the next 2.5 years, I and many other fantasy managers waited for the day when the Cowboys would finally turn their backfield over to Pollard.

Last year, it finally happened. The Cowboys cut Elliott and installed Pollard as their unquestioned RB1 workhorse. Unfortunately, things did not go as planned.

Pollard saw a career-high 252 rush attempts. However, that led to a career-worst 4.0 yards per carry. Pollard’s target share increased for the fourth consecutive season, up to 11.1%. He caught a career-high 55 passes, but he turned that into just 311 yards.

By comparison, Pollard caught 39 passes in each of the previous two seasons but with 60 and 26 more receiving yards, respectively.

Pollard averaged 13.1 fantasy points per game last year, finishing as the RB23 overall. He was one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy.

After his 2022 season, which included explosive runs, efficient receptions, and 12 touchdowns on 232 touches, Pollard was unable to come close to that level of performance in 2023.

Pollard touched the ball a whopping 307 times. His yards per route run plummeted to 0.86 (34th in the league), and a mere 4.4% of his carries went for 15+ yards (25th). His 3.16 yards created per touch was outside the top 35.

The toughest part of swallowing Pollard’s awful season is how great the Cowboys were offensively. They scored 50 offensive touchdowns last season, marking their third straight season with 50+ scores. Somehow Pollard managed to account for only six of them.

Pollard had 72 red-zone touches and nine goal-line carries, yet scored only three times from inside the 2-yard line. Simply put…how?

One potential explanation for Pollard’s struggles was his recovery from the broken leg he suffered in the Cowboys’ Divisional Round loss to the San Francisco 49ers in January 2023. Still dealing with the injury, Pollard said he didn’t feel like himself over the first half of the season.

Taking this at face value, fantasy managers would have a reason to be optimistic about a return to form in 2024. However, as Fantasy Life’s Ian Hartitiz pointed out, Pollard wasn’t exactly better over the second half of the season.

Lot of talk about Tony Pollard not feeling like himself until Week 11 last season coming back from injury:

Weeks 1-10:
3.9 yards per carry
2.7 yards after contact per carry
7.4% explosive run rate
0.93 yards per route run

Weeks 11-WC:
4 YPC
3 YCO/carry
9% EXP/carry
0.64 YPRR

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz)

Is Pollard a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?

Last year should’ve been the best season of Pollard’s career. Instead, at age 26, he regressed considerably. Now 27 years old, it’s unlikely we’re going to see a massive rebound. That’s especially so on a Titans offense vastly inferior to the Cowboys.

Last season, Tennessee limited Derrick Henry to a 54.2% snap share. Pollard is not about to become a three-down back. This is going to be a timeshare with sophomore RB Tyjae Spears. The biggest challenge for fantasy managers is deciphering exactly how this backfield will play out.

The split made sense with Henry and Spears. Henry is the runner, and Spears is the receiver.

Pollard and Spears, however, have similar skill sets. Both can play either role, and most importantly, both can play both roles. That makes it exceedingly difficult to project volume.

My best guess is this backfield operates similarly to how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers deployed Rachaad White and Leonard Fournette two years ago. This is after White burst onto the scene and made himself a meaningful part of the backfield.

Over the latter portion of the 2022 season, White and Fournette (who also had similar skill sets) basically split drives. It was “your turn/my turn.” Each handled early-down carries, caught passes, and got goal-line work, depending on whose drive it was.

Given the similarities between what Spears and Pollard do well, that’s how I’m projecting Tennessee’s backfield to look.

There is injury contingent upside for both as well. If one gets hurt, the other’s fantasy value will rise.

From that perspective, Pollard does have upside. However, even as the lead back, he’s going from a Dak Prescott offense to a Will Levis-led one. Furthermore, the Titans’ offense added Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd — I’m not sure they’re looking to run.

Pollard’s RB26 ADP is too rich for me. I straight-up ranked Spears ahead of him (RB27 vs. RB28).

If Pollard ends up being the cheaper back, I might be fine taking the shot. But given my preference for Spears and the fact that he’s cheaper, it’s hard to recommend drafting Pollard this season.