MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — The Miami Dolphins are expected in the coming weeks to engage Tua Tagovailoa and his agent, Ryan Williams, in contract extension talks.
Dolphins general manager Chris Grier telegraphed as much Monday during his season wrap-up news conference.
“We stayed in touch with his agent [throughout the season],” Grier said. “We never talked about money, but we had good conversations about, you know, where he is and his relationship with Mike and the team here, and everything he’s done.
“So the goal is to have him here long-term, playing at a high level,” Grier added. “That’s always the goal. So we’ll continue to communicate with him through the offseason here.
“[We] don’t really [negotiate through] the media. So we’ll just, you know, keep all those talks internal with his reps.”
Projected Contract Extension for Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa
So Grier wouldn’t tip his hand when asked if he believes he needs to pay Tagovailoa near the top of the market.
But it would be absolutely shocking — and to be honest, a professional malpractice — if the Dolphins make Tagovailoa the highest-paid player in NFL history.
That means he would earn at least a dollar more than Joe Burrow, who in September signed a record-breaking five-year, $275 million extension that set the precedent that franchise quarterbacks should earn $55+ million annually.
But an important question to ask yourself:
Does Tagovailoa have anywhere near the leverage that Burrow, Lamar Jackson, or even Justin Herbert had last summer?
The answer is of course no. Tagovailoa has one full season of high-level play on tape, has a history of concussions, and a history of underperforming late-season performances, particularly when the weather gets cold.
The Dolphins also can remind Williams that they control Tagovailoa’s rights over the next three seasons at no more than $135 million total ($45 million AAV), thanks to the fifth-year option and two franchise tags.
MORE: Why Miami Dolphins Are ‘Not Really Concerned’ About Being $40M+ Over the Salary Cap
And so a reasonable figure for a long-term deal for Tua (which allows the Dolphins a moderately painful out after 2025) is more like this:
Four years, $180 million with $100 million guaranteed. That would put him in line with the inflation-adjusted contracts of Matthew Stafford ($46.6 million AAV if the salary cap when he signed was the $242.5 million it’s expected to be in 2024) and Daniel Jones ($43.2 million).
It’s a fair deal, and as we discuss in the first PFN Miami Dolphins Podcast of the offseason, the best one he’s probably going to get anywhere.
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