The Buffalo Bills finished the season on a five-game win streak that saw the surge to the AFC East title in Week 18. Their reward is to host the Pittsburgh Steelers at Highmark Stadium on Wild Card Weekend, but can they continue their hot streak, or can Pittsburgh win their fourth straight?
In our early Wild Card Weekend NFL betting preview, I give my initial Steelers vs. Bills prediction and picks based on the current odds available as of Monday afternoon.
Steelers vs. Bills Odds
All odds are from ESPN BET — sign up today and use promo code PFN when registering to secure $150 in bonus bets!
- Spread
Bills -10 - Moneyline
Steelers +380, Bills -500 - Total
35.5
Steelers vs. Bills Prediction
The Bills have turned things around since their bye in Week 13. Entering that bye, they had lost three of their last four and four of their last six, but since then, they have won five games in a row, including wins over fellow playoff teams such as the Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, and Miami Dolphins.
The change for the Bills has somewhat been about just converting and not letting opportunities slip through their fingers.
All six of their losses were by one score, while four of their six wins before the bye were by more than a touchdown. Entering the bye, the Bills were 2-6 in one-score games, and since the bye, they are 4-0 in those games.
Some of it is the bounce of the ball and how things even out over time, and for the Bills, that seems to be a big part of it. Yes, they changed their offensive coordinator, but when you look at the numbers before and after the bye, not much stands out overall.
The biggest area of improvement for the Bills has been their defense. The Bills suffered some huge defensive losses in a short period right around that Week 4-6 mark, and it took some time for them to recover.
Since the bye, they have tightened up on that front, and it has resulted in them allowing over 20 points just twice in the last five games. Before the bye, they allowed 20 or more points in seven of the 12 games (58%).
Now they go up against a Steelers team that has been almost as frustrating to figure out this season. They have won three straight after having lost their previous three games just before that.
Barring a really horrible weather game in Baltimore in Week 18, their offense has been reborn under Mason Rudolph, averaging 27 points per game. In the 14 games before that, they averaged just 15.9 points per game.
Their defense continues to be what it always is: a solid, consistent group that is usually a top-10 unit. However, they suffered a major loss in pass rusher T.J. Watt in Week 18.
MORE: Early NFL Wild Card Round Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
Watt’s absence will have a substantial impact in trying to disrupt and contain this Bills’ offense. However, the Bills could only score 21 points against a Miami Dolphins team missing its two best pass rushers on Sunday.
Laying 10 points with a Bills team that has won just two games in blowout style since Week 5 is a tough sell. However, both of those blowout wins came at home, and one of them was the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The Steelers are familiar with tough weather conditions, so nothing the Buffalo atmosphere throws at them should faze them.
The Steelers are not a great team, and I would be stunned if they can spring an upset here. Their three wins in recent weeks came against the Ravens’ backups, an up-and-down Seattle Seahawks, and a Cincinnati Bengals team led by a backup QB. In the weeks before that, they lost to the Indianapolis Colts by 17 points, and both the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots at home.
Pittsburgh has lost just three games this year by more than 10 points, and two of them came in the first month. Mike Tomlin is too good of a coach to let his team get blown out here by a good but not-great Bills team.
They are clearly overmatched, but of all the lines available, the Steelers +10 is my favorite. However, I may very well look to take this line to +16 and pair it with under 41.5 in a six-point teaser.
Steelers vs. Bills Prediction: Steelers +16 and Under 41.5 six-point teaser (-111 at ESPN BET)
Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.
