We have a busy late afternoon slate today, with seven games during the 4:00 p.m. ET window, and four of them have playoff implications. Considering the stakes in these games, how should you be making your NFL picks?
Our betting team gives out their NFL Week 18 predictions and best bets for today’s afternoon games.
NFL Week 18 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Prediction
- Spread
Cowboys -13 - Moneyline
Cowboys -900, Commanders +600 - Total
46.5
Soppe: The Cowboys have been moving in the direction of a more conservative offense, and I expect that to continue. The Commanders own the third lowest pressure rate, thus allowing Prescott to fire from a clean pocket to his top option in the short pass game.
Dak Prescott aDOT:
- Weeks 1-12: 8.27
- Weeks 13-16: 6.47 (down 21.8%)
Jake Ferguson aDOT:
- Weeks 1-12: 5.88
- Weeks 13-16: 3.03 (down 48.5%)
Pick: Jake Ferguson over 3.5 receptions (-165 at DraftKings), over 4.5 receptions (+130)
Blewis: The Cowboys just need a win to clinch an NFC East title and the two seed in the NFC, which shouldn’t be an issue against Washington.
I’m expecting the Cowboys to jump out to an early lead and play the second half conservatively, hoping to escape Landover, MD with a win and without any injuries.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
In this scenario, the Cowboys’ starters won’t be playing significant snaps in the second half, and they won’t put their first on the gas offensively, either. This has me liking the second half under.
Pick: Under 23.5 2H points (-110 at FanDuel)
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction
- Spread
Packers -3 - Moneyline
Bears +135, Packers -155 - Total
45.5
Katz: Back in Week 1, Khalil Herbert ran for just 27 yards on nine carries against the Green Bay Packers. That was a long time ago.
Over the past two weeks, Herbert has reclaimed the Chicago Bears lead-back role. He’s run for 112 and 124 yards. Let’s ride the hot hand here.
Herbert is once again going to command the bulk of the carries. And the Packers allow the 10th-most rushing yards per game to running backs. Given Herbert’s recent play, he should have no trouble hitting 61+ yards on the ground.
Pick: Khalil Herbert Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DrarftKings)
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals Prediction
- Spread
Seahawks -3 - Moneyline
Seahawks -150, Cardinals +130 - Total
47.5
Soppe: We get a motivated Seahawks offense against a vulnerable Cardinals secondary — that’ll work! This season, DK Metcalf has more red zone targets than Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba combined, an elite role against a defense that is allowing 13.2% more red zone trips than any other team in the league.
This season, Metcalf has scored on 12.3% of his catches this season, a rate that exceeds his expectations (first four seasons: 11.4%, last season: 6.7%)
Pick: DK Metcalf anytime TD (+125 at DraftKings)
Blewis:Â This appears to be a strong sell-high spot for Arizona, as they’re coming off their biggest win of the season and by far their best performance offensively.
This Seahawks team isn’t very good, and their defense is almost as bad as Philadelphia’s, but this is a fade of the Cardinals and to avoid getting too caught up in their uncharacteristic win last week against a team fighting to get into the playoffs.
Pick: Seahawks -3 (-102 at DraftKings)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants Prediction
- Spread
Eagles -5.5 - Moneyline
Eagles -250, Giants +210 - Total
41.5
Blewis:Â This might be Saquon Barkley’s last game as a New York Giant and his last game as a member of the team playing in front of the fan base. But from a matchup standpoint, Barkley should be in for a strong performance against a struggling Eagles defense.
Last week, the Eagles allowed James Conner to rush for 128 yards on 26 carries. The Eagles’ defense is incredibly easy to move the ball against, especially on a down-to-down basis, rather than hunting for the big play. After a great start to the season in this area, the Eagles’ run defense is 31st in EPA/play since their bye week.
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When these two teams last played each other two weeks ago, Barkley had 23 carries for 80 yards — I’m expecting at least a similar performance this time around.
Considering everyone has written off the Eagles (can’t blame them), and there are very few people interested in laying points with this team after they have failed to cover five games in a row, I was tempted to zag on this one. But with all of that being said, this Barkley prop just feels much safer.
Pick: Saquon Barkley over 59.5 rushing yards (-120 at DraftKings)
Other NFL Week 18 Games
Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction
- Spread
Raiders -3 - Moneyline
Broncos +135, Raiders -155 - Total
37.5
With two teams eliminated from the postseason, this isn’t as sensible of a game as it gets. Because of that, we have no bets for this game.
Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction
- Spread
49ers -4 - Moneyline
Rams +170, 49ers -200 - Total
40.5
Carson Wentz vs. Sam Darnold is an interesting quarterback matchup, but this game means absolutely nothing. Our team is passing on this game.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Prediction
- Spread
Chargers -4 - Moneyline
Chiefs +160, Chargers -190 - Total
35.5
The Kansas City Chiefs are locked into their seeding in the AFC playoff. Meanwhilele, the Los Angeles Chargers have already been eliminated from the postseason. The NFL schedule makers were dreaming of this being a pivotal matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert before the season, but instead, we’ll be getting Blaine Gabbert vs. Easton Stick.
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