The Detroit Lions head into Week 18 with a playoff berth secured and their first division title since 1993 already locked up amid a resurgent season. Detroit was poised to perhaps rise even higher before some late controversy in its 20-19 loss to the Dallas Cowboys that all but solidified the Lions’ playoff seeding. Still, the franchise has an outside chance at moving up a seed, depending on how the final week plays out.
Detroit Lions Playoff Chances | Week 18 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Jan. 7 at 8:25 a.m. before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After the late slate in Week 18, the Lions are now the No. 3 seed in the NFC. They will host the Los Angeles Rams on Wild Card Weekend.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Lions (12-5) defeated Vikings (7-10)
Buccaneers (9-8) defeated Panthers (2-15)
Saints (9-8) defeated Falcons (7-10)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Cowboys (12-5) defeated Commanders (4-13)
Giants (6-11) defeated Eagles (11-6)
Rams (10-7) defeated 49ers (12-5)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Lions entering Week 18. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Lions’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios in Week 18?
Detroit went into Week 17 with a real chance to remain in contention for the top seed in the NFC, but the controversial ending in its loss to the Cowboys officially ended those hopes as San Francisco officially secured the conference’s No. 1 seed. That loss to Dallas also made the Lions’ path to finishing higher than the No. 3 seed highly unlikely.
In fact, Detroit now has a roughly 1% chance of jumping up to the No. 2 seed in Week 18 compared to 99% odds of finishing third in the NFC, based on simulations of the PFN Playoff Predictor.
The Lions’ only path to finishing second in the NFC involves the Philadelphia Eagles tying with the New York Giants, the Cowboys losing to the Commanders, and a Detroit win over the Minnesota Vikings. The unlikeliness of that tie, combined with Dallas being heavily incentivized and favored to beat Washington, makes this scenario very unlikely but still theoretically possible.
Assuming that scenario miraculously materialized, the Lions would be in line to play whichever team finishes seventh in the NFC.
Possibilities that came up in the PFN Playoff Predictor’s simulations included the Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, and Green Bay Packers as the most likely No. 7 seeds, while the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints are other possibilities depending on how the final week shakes out.
In the more likely event of Detroit finishing third and thus facing the No. 6 seed, the Rams are the most likely opponent at roughly 67% odds. The Packers would be the other likely foe in that case at 33% odds in the PFN Playoff Predictor’s simulations.
MORE: Detroit Lions Depth Chart
Ultimately, the Lions are all but assured of finishing third in the conference due to Dallas and Philadelphia holding head-to-head tiebreakers over them.
Time will tell what Detroit is able to accomplish with its best playoff seeding in recent history.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!Â
