The Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Chargers matchup has an intriguing look to it following the departure of Brandon Staley last week. Will the Chargers be able to upset the Bills in primetime on Saturday, or will Buffalo make it three wins in a row?
Below, our NFL betting experts lay out how they see this game going with their Bills vs. Chargers predictions and picks.
Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Lines
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- Spread
Bills -12.5 - Moneyline
Bills -800, Chargers +550 - Total
43.5
Bills vs. Chargers Predictions and Expert Picks
Ryan Gosling: The Chargers are in the midst of a throwaway season. Justin Herbert is out for the rest of the year, the team is all but eliminated from the playoffs, and they have moved on from head coach Brandon Staley. They named Giff Smith as their interim HC, whom many of the Chargers veteran players have spoken highly of.
There are two angles here that I like. Since 2003, teams have gone 21-16 ATS the week after firing their head coach. In the past two seasons, teams to allow 40+ points in their previous game are 22-13-2 ATS the following week.
Yes, the Bills are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now. But Los Angeles is catching Buffalo in a potential flat spot here following three consecutive huge games for the Bills against the Eagles, Chiefs, and Cowboys. 12.5 is a lot of points. No, I don’t think Easton Stick will straight-up beat the Bills in this spot, but I do think they cover the big number with extra motivation.
Picks:Â Chargers +12.5 (-110 at ESPNBet)
Ben Rolfe: This game would cause me all sorts of angst if I was a Bills fan. From their perspective, this screams a let-down game after two huge wins back-to-back.
Then you add on top of the Chargers firing their head coach and the potential on-the-field boost that sometimes brings, and it just becomes a huge upset spot. That isn’t even considering the extra days of rest that Los Angeles has had coming off Thursday Night Football.
I was not comfortable laying 10.5 points earlier this week, so I’m certainly not comfortable laying 12.5. My advice on Thursday was to tease it down to 4.5 and take the total down below 40 to play the over. But at 12.5, I don’t love that either.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
A part of me wants to take the chaos scenario of the Chargers winning at +550, but they just lost by 42 points to the Las Vegas Raiders.
This is a game where I’m more likely to look at player props and anytime touchdown plays than anything else. If you want some action on the spread and/or total, then the Bills -6.5 and over 37.5 teaser is as good as I can get here.
Kyle Soppe: Josh Allen doesn’t have a 10-yard run in three of four games since Joe Brady took over the offense, something that leads me to the conclusion that he continues to only run as needed. Is he going to need to this week?
Here are Allen’s rushing totals in games decided by 20 points this season:
- Week 2 vs. Raiders: 7 rushing yards
- Week 3 at Commanders: 46
- Week 4 vs. Dolphins: 17
- Week 11 vs. Jets: 15
- Week 15 vs. Cowboys: 24
Allen’s aggression on the ground hasn’t been the same in one-sided games, and that makes a lot of sense. Buffalo is a massive favorite in this game and has a young running back in James Cook, who is hitting his stride (5.8 yards per carry in the last five games).
Pick: Josh Allen under 31.5 rush yards (-114 at FanDuel)
David Bearman: The Chargers enter as the 30th-ranked pass defense in the NFL. Josh Allen will have a field day, especially if you see what Aiden O’Connell did last week with the Las Vegas Raiders. So, which Bills WR will benefit the most?
Believe it or not, the best pass catcher for the Bills in the last two weeks has been running back James Cook. He also touched the rock 25 times and scored on the ground last week. So we have multiple options here, and we’re only laying 25 cents juice, which seems low.
Picks: James Cook anytime touchdown (-125 ESPN BET)
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