Sportsbooks are forecasting this matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts to be the most competitive of the Saturday games.
With that being said, my Steelers vs. Colts same game parlay has a strong lean as to which team holds the advantage.
Steelers vs. Colts Betting Lines
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- Spread
Colts -1.5 - Moneyline
Steelers +105, Colts -125 - Total
42
Steelers vs. Colts Same Game Parlay
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: Mike Tomlin started coaching the Steelers in 2007. That season, the Colts and Steelers combined to have three players score 10+ touchdowns from scrimmage. Can you name two of them?
Good bettors try to beat the books; great bettors take what the sportsbooks are telling us and use it to guide their takes.
With a 42-point total, we are being told something that we already know – this game doesn’t line up as a fantasy football dream case. Well, the Colts are 0-6 this season when allowing at least 29 points and 7-0 otherwise.
Not only are sportsbooks telling us that the Steelers getting to 29 points is a long shot, but Pittsburgh has told us as much with their play on the field – 755 days ago was the last time this team scored 29 points in a road game.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
How long ago was that? The Jimmy Garoppolo-led 49ers were a .500 team at the time of that performance. It’s been a minute.
If we are taking those trends to point to a Colts win, they should establish control sooner rather than later. In their losses this season, the Steelers have been outscored 86-23 in the first halves.
How do the Colts produce? On the ground. They are above league average in rush rate over expectation this season, and opponents facing the Steelers are also running at a rate that exceeds what you’d expect given the flow of games.
The Zack Moss production over the past two weeks has been tepid at best, but the role has been Christian McCaffrey-level strong:
Zack Moss last two weeks:
* 121-of-132 snaps (92%)
* 32-of-35 RB carries (91%)
* 63 routes on 90 Minshew dropbacks (70%)
* 11 targets for a 14% share
* 9 carries inside the 10-yard line
* 14.3 total fantasy points— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan)
In his five featured games this season when the Colts are not blown out, Moss has reached 18 carries five times (20.6 carries per game). He’s shown some hard running at times this season, but if we assign him merely what the Steelers allow on average (4.2 YPC), we are projecting 75.6 rushing yards as a low-end total if he gets to 18 carries.
If they are grinding Moss yards on the ground and playing with a lead, the number of passes thrown figures to be kept in check.
Josh Downs has been held under 45 receiving yards in six straight games, and in his two games north of that number since mid-October, there were an average of 71 points scored — it was the type of scoring environment that we don’t expect to see today.
From a pass distribution standpoint, it’s difficult to see Downs getting significant opportunities to burn us. He owns a sub-eight-yard aDOT this season, a role that Michael Pittman has dominated, and Moss figures to eat into as well.
The Steelers are routinely challenged downfield (seventh highest opponent aDOT), and those looks go to Alec Pierce and his 15-yard aDOT.
I’m not promising an exciting game, but a boring game can help us cash this ticket, and that would make it an exciting game!
- Trivia Answer: The Colts were responsible for all three – Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark
- Same Game Parlay Pick: Colts 1H, Colts ML, Josh Downs under 42.5 receiving yards, Zack Moss over 73.5 rushing yards
- Odds: +518 (at FanDuel)
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