Entering Week 15, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts have identical records at 7-6 but are competing with each other in a competitive AFC wild card race. Can the Steelers bounce back after two consecutive home losses to the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots? We break it all down, first with the Steelers vs. Colts odds, followed by our Steelers vs. Colts predictions and more.
Steelers vs. Colts Betting Lines
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- Spread
Colts -2.5 - Moneyline
Steelers +110, Colts -130 - Total
42.5
Steelers vs. Colts Predictions and Expert Picks
Bearman:Â My successful ride on the Colts Express ended last week, but we aren’t hopping off of it just yet.
Stinkers like the loss to the hot Bengals are going to happen, but Indy is right there in the AFC race and needs this one against a fellow playoff contender in Pittsburgh.
While I’m a believer in the Colts, I do not feel the same way about the Steelers, who have lost two straight games and have been out-gained in 11 of 13 contests this season. It’s a miracle this team is 7-6 and the current sixth seed in the AFC. I’m betting on the Colts yet again.
Pick: Colts -1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Blewis: The Steelers are no longer getting overvalued because of their record, and they’re going against a team that is perhaps more fraudulent than they are.
While neither team is as good as their 7-6 record indicates, the Steelers are 11th in DVOA, while the Colts are just 20th. This comes with fairly similar schedules to this point as well, as they have both mostly faced bad offenses but good defenses.
It’s not a strong play here, but I like the Steelers to bounce back here coming off extended rest. While they’re coming off consecutive losses to two-win teams, this is one of those spots where you don’t hesitate to back the Steelers — 14-5-1 ATS with extra time to prepare since 2018, best in the NFL according to The Action Network.
I’m also going to pair this as a teaser leg with the first game of the day, getting the Steelers up to +7.5 with the Vikings at +9.
Picks: Steelers +1.5 (-110 at DraftKings), Steelers +7.5 and Vikings +9 six-point teaser (-120 at DraftKings)
Soppe: How do the Colts produce? On the ground. They are above league average in rush rate over expectation this season, and opponents facing the Steelers are also running at a rate that exceeds what you’d expect given the flow of games.
Zack Moss’s production over the past two weeks has been tepid at best, but his role has been Christian McCaffrey level strong.
Zack Moss last two weeks:
* 121-of-132 snaps (92%)
* 32-of-35 RB carries (91%)
* 63 routes on 90 Minshew dropbacks (70%)
* 11 targets for a 14% share
* 9 carries inside the 10-yard line
* 14.3 total fantasy points— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan)
In his five featured games this season when the Colts are not blown out, Moss has reached 18 carries all five times (20.6 carries per game). He’s shown some hard running at times this season, but if we assign him merely what the Steelers allow on average (4.2 ypc), we are projecting 75.6 rushing yards as a low-end total if he gets to 18 carries.
Pick: Zack Moss over 72.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Rolfe:Â This game is fascinating with both teams coming off a loss last week and in desperate need of a win to keep their playoff spots. The Colts’ offense was kept in check last week by the Bengals, and their run game has been unable to produce without Jonathan Taylor over the past two games.
On top of that, they’re going against one of the best defenses against opposing wide receivers in the entire league over the past four weeks.
The Steelers were taken apart by a talented tight end and running back last week in the passing game. They aren’t facing the same caliber of player at either position this week, and they should be able to stifle the Colts. Pittsburgh’s offense under Mitchell Trubisky doesn’t look any worse than under Kenny Pickett, and the Colts’ defense is arguably the worst they have faced all season.
MORE: NFL Week 15 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
In all likelihood, this won’t be a pretty game, but those are the sort that suit this Steelers’ team. Pittsburgh hasn’t won a game by more than a score this season, so this will likely be a nail-biter. But they should have too much overall for the Colts when the game ends.
Pick: Steelers ML (+110 at DraftKings)
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