The Atlanta Falcons are in a very tight battle for the NFC South divisional crown in 2023 while also being in the midst of a race for a Wild Card spot if the division doesn’t go their way. At 6-6, the Falcons enter Week 14 leading the division and in terms of record when it comes to the NFC Wild Card spots.
With two teams right behind them for the division and tied with four other teams in the NFC standings at 6-6, the Falcons are delicately poised in the current playoff picture. With the assistance of the free PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s examine the Falcons scenarios for Week 14 and beyond.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Saints (6-7) defeated Panthers (1-12)
Buccaneers (6-7) defeated Falcons (6-7)
Tampa Bay now leads the NFC South after Week 14
Bears (5-8) defeated Lions (9-4)
Ravens (10-3) defeated Rams (6-7)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
49ers (10-3) defeated Seahawks (6-7)
Vikings (7-6) defeated Raiders (5-8)
SNF Game Update
Cowboys (10-3) defeated Eagles (10-3)
What Are the Falcons’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios for 2023?
With a one-game lead in the NFC South, the Falcons have a 59.5% chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). Additionally, the Falcons are given a 56.6% chance of winning the division, which seems high, with three teams all split by one game entering Week 14. However, Week 14 could go a long way towards helping them clinch the division this season.
The Falcons’ eyes will be firmly fixed on winning the NFC South and earning a home playoff game in Wild Card Weekend. A Wild Card spot would be viewed as a consolation prize and something that they will hope to fall into if they ultimately fall short of the division. However, sitting at 6-6, there is no guarantee that they will be in the postseason if the Falcons do not win the division.
In terms of the division, the Falcons Week 14 matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is huge. Winning it would open a two-game gap over the Buccaneers and give the Falcons a 2-0 head-to-head advantage over Tampa Bay. The Falcons defeated the Buccaneers 16-13 back in Week 7 and would be essentially 2.25 games ahead with four to play. Atlanta would also move to a 4-0 divisional record.
The best-case scenario for the Falcons would be if the New Orleans Saints also lose to the Carolina Panthers. That would give the Falcons a two-game lead over both of their divisional opponents and the chance to clinch the division before they face the Saints again in Week 18.
MORE: Atlanta Falcons Depth Chart
The Saints would also not be able to beat out the Falcons on divisional record, which is the second NFL playoff tiebreaker at the division level.
However, the Falcons could find themselves in a three-way tie at 6-7 if they lose. The Saints are the odds-on favorite to defeat the Panthers, and the Buccaneers beating the Falcons would be a huge swing.
Atlanta would drop below the Buccaneers based on their record in common games (4-4 vs. 5-3). At that point, anything could happen over the final four weeks, and it is hard to play out how those scenarios could go.
In the middle of those two scenarios is a situation where the Falcons and Saints win. That gives the Falcons a huge advantage over the Buccaneers and a game against the Saints in Week 18 that could well be for the division. Atlanta will also have half an eye on getting to nine or 10 wins to try and lock up an NFC Wild Card spot if they fail to win the division.
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