Before we dive into our NFL Week 14 predictions, it’s worth pointing out how many low totals we have with the NFL betting lines this week.
Including the Thursday Night Football game, which had a closing total of 30.5, we have three games this week with over/unders below 34 points. While weather is certainly playing a factor, the number of backup quarterbacks suiting up today is another reason for these low totals.
While there are quite a few underwhelming quarterback matchups today, we have Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes in the late afternoon, followed by Jalen Hurts vs. Dak Prescott on Sunday Night Football. With the abundance of low totals and backup QBs suiting up today, how should you approach your NFL picks? Let’s get right into our NFL Week 14 predictions.
NFL Week 14 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
All odds are as of 9:30 am EST and are from ESPN BET — sign up today and use promo code PFN when registering to secure $250 in bonus bets!
Los Angeles Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens Prediction
- Spread
Ravens -7.5 - Moneyline
Rams +290, Ravens -360 - Total
39.5
Bearman:Â The Ravens are solid and may be the best team in the AFC, but this is too many points against a rising Rams team.
MORE: NFL Survivor Picks Week 14
Since the bye, the Rams have been a different team, finishing off a sweep of the Seattle Seahawks and running all over the Cardinals and Cleveland Browns. They now find themselves in the thick of the playoff race and are getting more than a TD here.
Yes, the Ravens have blowout potential as we have seen, but not in the last few weeks against the Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, and Chargers.
Pick: Rams +7.5 (-115 at ESPN BET)
Blewis: The Rams are surpassing almost everyone’s expectations from the preseason. They look like a legitimate Wild Card team when their offense is completely healthy.
But they’ve struggled against other elite teams this season, and we’ve seen the Ravens blow out both the Lions and Seahawks in similar spots at home.
I’m not taking the full 7.5, however — I teased this down to Ravens -1.5 with the Bills up to +7.5.
Pick: Ravens -1.5 and Bills +7.5 in a 6-point teaser (-120 at DraftKings)
Katz: I am not sure why Rashod Bateman’s line continues to be this low. While he hasn’t caught more than two passes in a game since Week 2, Bateman only needs two catches to sail past this number, something he’s done in five of his last six games.
Bateman’s snap share has been increasing lately, topping out at 80% before the Ravens’ bye. Over his last three games, he’s seen his three highest snap shares. His routes run over the past four games have been 22, 23, 24, 25, even with a paltry 16.1% targets per route run rate. 20+ routes are enough for Bateman to reach 20 yards against a Rams defense that has been more vulnerable against the pass than the run recently.
Pick: Rashod Bateman over 19.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints Prediction
- Spread
Saints -6 - Moneyline
Panthers +220, Saints -270 - Total
39.5
Blewis:Â The Saints, like the Buccaneers last week, feel overvalued here. They’re 0-5 ATS at home this season, and the Panthers received a big boost defensively with the return of DB Jaycee Horn last week.
This is simply too many points for a mediocre (at best) Saints team with Derek Carr extremely banged up
Pick: Panthers +6 (-110 at ESPN BET)
Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals Prediction
- Spread
Bengals -2.5 - Moneyline
Colts +110, Bengals -130 - Total
43.5
Bearman: Keep giving me the Colts and short lines. I hit this last week in Tennessee and will take them again this week in Cincy.
It was a nice win for the Bengals and backup QB Jake Browning last week, but I am not sure they pull that off if Christian Kirk and Trevor Lawrence don’t get injured.
The Colts are red-hot winners of four straight. Yes, those opponents have been subpar, but they keep winning, so I’ll keep taking them.
Pick: Colts ML (+110 at DraftKings)
Katz: We missed last week on Josh Downs’ receptions. Oftentimes, when I miss things like this, I am a week early. Michael Pittman Jr. saw 16 targets last week. While he’s the clear alpha, I have a hard time believing that will happen again. Even a 4-5 target drop would open the door for Downs to have a strong day.
The Bengals allow 168 receiving yards per game to wide receivers. In games where Downs sees at least six targets, he’s gone over this number five out of seven times. Look for Downs to be much more involved this week.
Pick: Josh Down over 40.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns Prediction
- Spread
Browns -1.5 - Moneyline
Jaguars +1055, Browns -125 - Total
35.5
Blewis:Â All week, we had no idea who the quarterbacks will be in this game. But it looks like Trevor Lawrence is going to play, and while the Browns refused to reveal their starter, we can assume it will be Joe Flacco.
MORE: NFL Team Over/Under Standings Week 14
Even though Lawrence is starting starting, I’m going to assume he’s nowhere near 100% on a short week. Although that logic backfired in a similar spot earlier this season against the Saints on Thursday Night Football, when Lawrence played through a sprained knee and led Jacksonville to a 31-24 win, this Browns defense is elite at home and a much tougher matchup.
Pick: Browns -1.5 (-110 at ESPN BET)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction
- Spread
Falcons -2.5 - Moneyline
Buccaneers +110, Falcons -130 - Total
40.5
Blewis:Â This season, the Falcons offense has been much better at home, averaging nearly a touchdown more per game than on the road. They’re also facing a Buccaneers defense that is 28th in EPA/play since they started the season 3-1.
If you remember, the last time these two teams played, only 29 combined points were scored. But if you were an over-better, this was an extremely unlucky beat. There were five turnovers in the game, with four in the red zone, and two coming at the goal line on Desmond Ridder fumbles.
It also helps that both teams are banged up on defense. Give me the over on a low total. I grabbed it at 39.5, but I still like it below 41.5.
Pick: Over 39.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears Prediction
- Spread
Lions -3.5 - Moneyline
Lions -170, Bears +145 - Total
43.5
Bearman:Â I don’t want to do this, but I am going to take the Bears here. They dominated the Lions for 3.5 quarters when they met before Thanksgiving, and then they gave up the lead, but they looked great defensively against the Minnesota Vikings before their bye last week.
The Lions have shown some flaws, starting with the Bears game and continuing through the Thanksgiving loss to the Green Bay Packers and last week’s escape against the Saints.
Chicago isn’t great, and I am not picking them to win, but I am asking them just to cover the three plus the hook at home.
Pick: Bears +3.5 (-122 at DraftKings)
Blewis:Â I’m with Bearman on this one; I like the Bears getting more than a field goal and think this has sneaky upset potential as well.
I think this is a favorable matchup for the Bears at home, considering they’re getting 3.5 points in a cold December game at home against Jared Goff. Here are Goff’s stats in nine outdoor games in December for his career — 245 yards per game, 58.5% completion percentage, 6.4 yards per attempt, 13 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. While those aren’t terrible, they’re still well below his standard.
I think the Bears will have the advantage in the run game here, as they have the NFL’s second-best run defense,and should be able to contain both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Meanwhile, the Lions are expected to be without both starting center Frank Ragnow — PFF’s seventh-highest graded interior offensive lineman in run blocking, and defensive tackle Alim McNeil — PFF’s fifth-highest grader interior defensive lineman in stopping the run.
Pick: Bears +3.5 (-122 at DraftKings)
Katz: I feel like the only reason Jahmyr Gibbs’ longest rush line continues to be this low is because of the overall volume concerns. Fewer chances to run the ball = fewer chances at breaking off a long one.
Gibbs just finds a way, though. He’s played in 10 games this season and has a run of 13+ yards in eight of them.
The Bears have been stout against the run, but Gibbs is on another level of explosiveness. This is a bet I’m willing to take every week, as it will hit more than it doesn’t.
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs’s longest rush over 12.5 yards (-120 at BetMGM)
Houston Texans vs. New York Jets Prediction
- Spread
Texans -3 - Moneyline
Texans -190, Jets +160 - Total
32.5
Bearman: Rinse, repeat. Why mess with a good thing?
The Jets’ offense, much like the Giants’ and Patriots’, stinks. The last time they scored two offensive TDs in a game, we had eight teams still fighting for the World Series. In 24 quarters since their bye, they have two TOTAL offensive TDs, one was a dump-off 50-yard TD, and one was in garbage time against the Miami Dolphins’ third-string defense.
Tim Boyle, cut? Zach Wilson, maybe doesn’t want to play? Brett Rypien, off of someone else’s practice squad? Sure.
If you read this column weekly, you know what to do.
Pick: Jets under 14.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Blewis: Any Jets game is going to have an extremely low total, but it’s still rather telling that the line is where it’s at despite them going against C.J. Stroud.
As impressive as Stroud has been as a rookie, however, he has been a much different quarterback at home than on the road. Away from home, Stroud averages almost two yards less per pass attempt, has a QB rating 20 points lower, and has thrown 12 fewer touchdown passes.
This is another game where weather could be a factor as well, but even if with perfect conditions, it never hurts to take the under in any game that Zach Wilson is starting in.
Pick: Under 33.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Katz: “It can’t possibly get worse than Zach Wilson.” – Jets fans. “Hold my beer.” – Tim Boyle.
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Zach is back! And that’s a good thing! While Wilson is not going to suddenly be a competent NFL quarterback, he is going to hyper-target his namesake.
Garrett has had at least five receptions in eight of his 12 games this season. Before Zach got benched, Garrett had gotten there in five consecutive games.
The Texans only allow 11.6 receptions per game to wide receivers, but Wilson should be able to be responsible for at least half of those.
Pick: Garrett Wilson over 4.5 receptions (-110 at BetMGM)
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction
- Spread
49ers -13.5 - Moneyline
Seahawks +600, 49ers -900 - Total
46.5
Bearman: I think we know who the best team in the NFC — and maybe the NFL — is. In nine games with Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams healthy, the Niners are 9-0 and winning by an average of over 20 PPG. All but one have been double-digit wins, and the one that wasn’t was due to a last-minute FG that Rams head coach Sean McVay decided to kick (it covered the spread, BTW).
MORE: NFL Week 14 ATS Standings
San Fran won the matchup by 18 two weeks ago in Seattle. The Niners have looked even better since then. I can’t say the same for the Seahawks. I grabbed the -10 with some juice before the line moved back up.
Pick: 49ers -10 (-125 at FanDuel)
Blewis: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Almost every week, when the 49ers are at full strength offensively, I have given out their team total over, as it’s undefeated in their nine games with Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams this season.
Even if the number is higher than it has ever been, why stop now? The 49ers have scored 30 or more points in all but one game this season with their entire starting offense, and they’re facing a Seahawks defense that just allowed 41 points and 411 yards of offense to the Cowboys.
Pick: 49ers over 29.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction
- Spread
Vikings -3 - Moneyline
Vikings -150, Raiders +130 - Total
40.5
Bearman: Outside of putting up 30 on the Giants, the Raiders haven’t topped 21 points all season. The last time we saw the Vikings, Joshua Dobbs was throwing to the wrong team all night, and they had 10 points against the Bears. Justin Jefferson should be back, but I still don’t expect a lot of points here.
Pick: Under 40.5 (-110 at ESPN BET)
I was surprised to see the Raiders getting 1.5 points at home in this matchup when the lines first opened, so I’m even more surprised to now see them as three-point underdogs.
The Vikings are getting Justin Jefferson back, but they were 5-2 without him. Before their bye week, Joshua Dobbs was falling back to reality with four interceptions in his last game. The Dobbs story was fun, but I don’t think he deserves to be a three-point road favorite.
Although they have faced the Giants and Jets during this stretch, since Antonio Pierce has taken over as interim head coach, the Raiders have been the fifth-best defense by EPA/play in the NFL. This isn’t that bad of a team.
Pick: Raiders +3 (-112 at DraftKings)
Katz: There is a lot of overreacting going on with Jordan Addison here. Between Josh Dobbs being on a short leash, Justin Jefferson returning, and Addison’s inconsistent play, we now have our lowest receiving line on him since early in the season.
Even with Jefferson back, it’s not as if Addison isn’t going to see targets. Addison has gone over this number in 10 of 12 games this season. I know we haven’t seen a game with both Addison and Jefferson with Dobbs this season, but there should be enough targets to go around for Addison to at least post a 3-40 line.
Pick: Jordan Addison over 32.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers Prediction
- Spread
Chargers -2.5 - Moneyline
Broncos +125, Chargers -145 - Total
43.5
Bearman: The Broncos are one pass away from a six-game winning streak and from being one game behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West, but that Russell Wilson pass was intercepted in the end zone, ending the streak.
They are still playing some of the best football in the league and should be favored here in my opinion. Brandon Staley and the Chargers stayed on life support with a 6-0 win against the woeful Patriots team, a win that felt more like a loss.
Denver is the better team right now and should not only beat the Chargers but potentially put an end to Staley’s tenure in LA.
Pick: Broncos +3 (-125 at ESPN BET)
Soppe: Russell Wilson certainly hasn’t been shy about throwing it deep and hoping for the best. Sutton has a slightly higher aDOT than Jerry Jeudy this season and has surpassed this number in each of his past six games.
I like that trend to continue in this spot against a bottom-five pass defense in most metrics that also blitzes at a top-10 rate, thus leaving Sutton in single coverage down the field. He should get multiple deep looks that can pay this prop off, not to mention the potential for him to turn a 5-10-yard pass into a longer gain.
I’m comfortable swallowing some juice in this specific matchup.
Pick: Courtland Sutton’s longest reception over 21.5 yards (-125 at DraftKings)
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
- Spread
Chiefs -1 - Moneyline
Bills -105, Chiefs -115 - Total
48.5
Blewis: It’s always scary to fade Patrick Mahomes, especially when he’s giving less than three points. Even more so when he’s a short home favorite coming off a loss.
But I think these teams are evenly matched, and the Bills are basically in a win-or-go-home situation with how they’ve fallen behind in the AFC playoff race.
Buffalo has been perhaps the most unlucky team this season, with no losses by more than one score. In fact, for the season, they’re 2-6 in one-score games, with one of the wins being a backdoor cover by the Buccaneers.
Given the value of the Bills compared to taking the Chiefs, I like them straight up.
Pick: Bills ML (+110 at FanDuel)
Katz:Â Since joining the Buffalo Bills, Stefon Diggs has played six games against the Chiefs, including the playoffs. He’s had more than six receptions in just one of them.
While what happened in 2020 and 2021 doesn’t matter because the teams are different, it is telling that the Chiefs made it a point to shut Diggs down as best as they could, as those defenses were far worse than the one they are sending out there this season.
The 2023 Chiefs defense is easily the best they’ve had during Patrick Mahomes’ tenure. They have been erasing opposing WR1s and specifically dominating outside receivers. The Bills may try and force Diggs to the ball, but I don’t think it will work.
Pick: Stefon Diggs under 6.5 receptions (-118 at FanDuel)
Soppe: The Bills have plenty of defensive flaws, and opponents have been exploiting them via the short pass (lowest opponent aDOT this season). That, friends, is gold against a developing WR1 in Rashee Rice, who leads all qualified receivers in yards after the catch per reception this season.
His playing time is gradually inching up, and with an 80% catch rate this season, each target carries with it high catch equity.
Pick: Rashee Rice over 5.5 receptions (+105 at DraftKings)
Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.
