Today’s Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets game is the beginning of a new annual tradition of an NFL Black Friday game and features two teams going in opposite directions. Will Tim Boyle provide a boost to this Jets offense in place of Zach Wilson, or will they struggle to keep pace with Tua Tagovailoa and company? Before we get into the Dolphins vs. Jets predictions, let’s check out the odds.
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Betting Lines
The Dolphins are favored by more than a touchdown for the fourth time this season, and they’re 3-1 ATS and 4-0 SU in this spot. While the total is fairly low for a game featuring the Dolphins offense, unders have hit in four consecutive Miami games and in five straight Jets games.
All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Spread
Dolphins -9.5 - Moneyline
Dolphins -450, Jets +360 - Total
40.5
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Predictions
Bearman: The Dolphins shouldn’t have a problem against a Jets team heading in the wrong direction. New York does have a strong defense and has held the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen (the first time), and Jalen Hurts in check. But they also got blown up by Justin Herbert and Allen last week.
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Miami’s offense isn’t playing as well as it did earlier this season, so that will keep me from laying 10 or taking the total in this game. However, I will isolate a terrible Jets offense, which is averaging 15 points per game and just benched Zach Wilson vs. an improved Dolphins defense.
Miami’s defense has been vastly improved with CB Jalen Ramsey and should hold Tim Boyle and the Jets in check.
Pick: Jets under 14.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Blewis: I’m going to go in a similar direction to Bearman, but with the game under instead.
I’m not expecting much improvement from this Jets offense despite the change at quarterback. Boyle might not even be an upgrade over Zach Wilson, and Nathaniel Hackett is still calling plays. They’re also going against a Dolphins defense that is third in EPA and fourth in success rate since Ramsey’s return from injury.
On the other side, the Dolphins haven’t scored more than 20 points against any of the good defenses they have faced this season (Patriots and Bills before their injuries, Eagles, and Chiefs).
Unders have also hit in five consecutive weeks for both teams, a trend that I’m not blindly tailing but certainly makes me feel better about my pick.
Pick: Under 41 (-108 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Following the waiving of Michael Carter, the Jets moved Dalvin Cook into that pass-catching/third-down role and activated rookie Israel Abanikanda to assume the more traditional “backup RB” role behind Breece Hall, Cook’s previous role.
Cook wasn’t exactly involved on the ground in a significant way anyway (under five carries in every game since early October), and those few reps might be a thing of the past. When it comes to game script, if this game is one-sided late, what do you think is most likely to occur?
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- Jets go pass-heavy
- Jets turn to develop Abanikanda
- Jets put more tread on the tires of Cook (1,600+ career touches)
Order them however you’d like, but I’m assuming that third option is least likely for all rational thinkers!
Pick: Dalvin Cook Under 10.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: Tua Tagovailoa has thrown multiple touchdowns in all but four games this season. With that said, we’re getting good enough odds on him to only throw one (or zero) against a defense that is among the best in the league against the pass.
We’ve seen the Jets shut down elite QBs like Allen and Herbert. We also know Mike McDaniel is a very progressive and forward-thinking offensive mind. I can assure you he is well aware that the Jets are a bit of a run-funnel defense. Look for the Dolphins to lean on Raheem Mostert and pound the football in this one.
Given that the Dolphins are favorites, the game script should not force them away from the run. The Dolphins should win this game comfortably, but here’s to hoping they score no more than one touchdown through the air.
Pick: Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+110 at DraftKings)
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