In a week with a terrible prime-time slate, this Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills matchup on Monday Night Football wins by default as the most appealing game. The Bills have lost three of their five games and have fallen out of the AFC playoff picture at the moment.
Just a few weeks ago, this would’ve looked like an easy get-right spot for Buffalo, but the Broncos have won two in a row (including against the Chiefs) and are well-rested coming off their bye week.
Can Russell Wilson and the Broncos pull off two consecutive upsets over elite quarterbacks? Let’s dive into the betting lines as well as the Broncos vs. Bills predictions and player prop bets.
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Raiders Betting Lines
The point spread has come down a bit since the Bills opened as 7.5-point favorites after their Sunday Night Football loss to the Bengals. Given the Bills’ struggles in recent weeks, it’s not surprising that they haven’t covered the spread since their Week 4 win over the Dolphins.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless stated otherwise.
- Spread
Bills -7.5 - Moneyline
Broncos +280, Bills -355 - Over/Under
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Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions
Bearman:Â Don’t look now, but the Bills just might be in must-win mode. With four losses — more than all of last season — and Philly, KC, Dallas, Miami, LAC, and NYJ on the schedule, there isn’t much room for error left. Even in must-win mode, I’m not laying 7.5 with a squad that hasn’t looked like a playoff team since dismantling the Dolphins in Week 4.
Since then, the Bills are 2-3 with squeakers over the Giants and Bucs. As painful as watching the Broncos in prime time has been the last two seasons, they at least are coming off a couple of good games in a row, almost sweeping KC and getting the last-minute win over the Packers. It’s a little dangerous, but I like the points here.
Pick: Broncos +7.5 (-118 at DraftKings)
Blewis:Â Quick trivia question for you: Since the Broncos allowed 70 points to the Dolphins, which of these two defenses has been better by EPA/play? Shockingly, it’s the Broncos, and it’s not even close. Over the past six weeks, the Broncos defense ranks 19th while the Bills are 30th. Since then, the Broncos have improved a lot defensively (couldn’t get any worse), and the Bills have been struggling without three of their best players on that side of the ball.
Even despite how much better they’ve been defensively in recent weeks, I’m not sure the sportsbooks have taken enough notice. The Bills offense remains one of the elite units in the NFL, but they haven’t scored more than 27 points in five straight games, and you can currently take the under on their team total of 27.5 at a fair price at FanDuel.
Pick: Bills under 27.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Soppe: With Wilson coming off of the bye, there are a few moving pieces here, so I’ll lay things out:
- BUF: Second-lowest opponent aDOT
- DEN: 28th in a time of possession (BUF: top 10 before Week 9)
- Both: Bottom 10 in pace of play
- Wilson: 0 INTs in four of his past five games
Over those past five games, Wilson’s aDOT has dropped by 21.4%. Denver has embraced who they are, and a drag-it-out style of offense is just that. With them and Buffalo both playing slow, a low possession count is what I’m banking on, which helps both of my Wilson’s legs in this play.
Picks: Russell Wilson under 210.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings), Russell Wilson under 0.5 interceptions (-105 at DraftKings)
Soppe: If the game is tight or moving in the favor of the home team, they figure to remain committed to the run game. In wins this season, James Cook is averaging 98.4 scrimmage yards per game, with 71 being his floor.
I understand the danger in looking at Denver’s season-long defensive numbers (league-high 5.4 YPC) because Miami’s 70-piece skews that data. Fine. In the games since…
- Isiah Pacheco (two games): 67.5 yards/game
- AJ Dillon: 95 yards
- Khalil Herbert: 122 yards
- Breece Hall: 194 yards
Cook’s role might not be perfect for fantasy football managers due to a lack of scoring equity, but with a stable touch count and explosive potential in his bag (18+ yard touch in six of his past eight games), he should be fine in this matchup.
Pick: James Cook over 78.5 scrimmage yards (-115 at DraftKings)
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