Are you in search of some DFS Monday Night Football picks on DraftKings for the showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings?
Well, look no further! Here are some of my top fantasy football DFS plays for the Week 7 contest on MNF.
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings Top MNF DFS Picks on DraftKings
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers ($10,800) – Captain
We know the deal with Kittle — it’s a roller-coaster. After posting 90 yards against the Giants in Week 3, he laid an egg in Week 4 with only one target (nine yards) against the Cardinals. The next week, he scored on all three of his catches against the Cowboys. Naturally, he followed up that performance with more targets (two) than yards (one) against the Browns.
It’s a ride, and by sliding him into your captain slot, you fully embrace that. If you roster him as a non-captain, you’re probably sunk if he gives you anything close to those examples but without the potential of truly cashing in on the All-World effort that we see from him a handful of times per season.
Kittle is averaging 17.6 DK fantasy points per game over his past 10 games with at least five targets, a rate of involvement that feels like a lock with Deebo Samuel sitting out.
K.J. Osborn, WR, Minnesota Vikings ($6,400)
There have been two games this season in which the Vikings didn’t get a full effort from Justin Jefferson, and with their star receiver on IR, tonight will be the third. It’s obviously a tiny sample size, but in comparing those two games to the first four, here is the percent change in aDOT for Kirk Cousins’ three primary targets:
- K.J. Osborn: Down 35.9%
- Jordan Addison: Down 3.9%
- T.J. Hockenson: Up 47.5%
There are obviously a few ways to use that data, but against a defense that ranks fifth in pressure rate despite blitzing at the ninth-lowest frequency, I tend to think prime-time Kirk Cousins will be getting the ball out of his hands fast and in a hurry. I play up this angle in the Week 7 Monday Night Football Same Game Parlay Picks article!
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Thus far in 2023, Osborn owns a higher average yardage of separation than Addison despite being given slightly less of a cushion by defenders. To me, that points to an ability to wiggle free from the snap and in those short target situations, something I think we see a lot of tonight.
Minnesota’s path to staying competitive in this game is to move the chains and use the short passing game as a way to keep the 49ers off the field. Do I think they accomplish that? I don’t, but in them attempting to, sign me up for Osborn’s best game of the season in catches, yards, and fantasy points, making him my lone Viking in this build.
Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers ($10,800)
Coming off the worst game of his young career, Purdy is in an elite bounce-back spot, especially if the 49ers simply want Christian McCaffrey to make it through this game in one piece (more to come on that). He is supported by a team that ranks in the top third in catch rate (non-drop rate) and a coaching staff that can scheme playmakers into space.
We can all agree that Purdy isn’t fleet of foot, right? Well, prior to the Week 6 dud in Cleveland, he had a rushing score or multiple passing touchdowns in every one of his regular-season starts. If we are to believe that the rushing scores are random for a pocket passer, I’m happy to bet against them, and that means multiple passing touchdowns in a concentrated attack.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers ($10,800)
Over his career, Aiyuk is more involved (27.2% more targets) and slightly more efficient (66.2% catch rate, up from 65.7%) when Samuel sits, and I like his chances to add to those totals against the blitz-happy Vikings that will require Purdy to get rid of the ball quick.
To that end, the big play. Aiyuk’s aDOT this season is more than double that of Samuel, an indicator that teams believes he can win in a significant way down the field. With that skill in his bag, are the aggressive Vikings not prone to a double move? In this spot, Aiyuk should be more involved in the short passing game than usual, and I don’t think you lose the big-play upside if this offensive line can hold up.
Aiyuk will likely be the chalkiest player on the board tonight, and you can be different by fading him — I’d rather be different in other spots.
Elijah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers ($5,600)
In the Week 3 blowout of the Giants, we saw Mitchell step in and carry the rock 11 times. In that game, he also caught all three of his targets, and if we get anywhere near 14 touches in a “keep CMC healthy” type of plan, I love the chances we have at returning value.
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Yes, Jordan Mason is a threat, but I believe his usage last week was more out of necessity than desire. This coaching staff has had a full work week to plan how they want to deploy McCaffrey, and if there are any limitations, Mitchell (4.8 yards per carry in his three seasons with the team) is my favorite to benefit in a major way.
San Francisco 49ers D/ST ($5,000)
We are telling the story of a 49ers route, and if that is going to come through, the defense will have their chance to produce. The Vikings rank sixth in pass rate over expectation this season, and all we can ask for as fantasy managers is dropbacks. In this case, we complete the trifecta:
- Pass-heavy offense
- Statue quarterback
- Lack of an alpha receiver
With all of those boxes checked, the Niners defense should carry a high enough floor not to hurt your chances of cashing with the breakout potential to be a big reason why you do!
