Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams is in the midst of a miraculous recovery from tearing multiple ligaments in his knee early last season. At his peak, Williams is one of the most punishing runners in the league. The question is whether he can get back there this season. Should fantasy football managers draft Williams at his ADP this season?
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Javonte Williams’ Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
After flashing elite upside as a rookie, Williams was a very popular breakout pick last season. And for good reason.
Williams played one game with an 80% snap share as a rookie. All he did was score 29.1 PPR fantasy points and finish as the overall RB1 on the week.
Last season, Williams burst out of the gate with 19.8 fantasy points but then quickly returned to being just a timeshare back. He scored below 10 fantasy points in Weeks 2 and 3 before tearing his ACL (among other things) in Week 4.
The injury is no doubt the biggest issue with Williams’ profile. But let’s not pretend like he was trending toward being a good pick before he got hurt. Williams looked to be mired in the same timeshare with Melvin Gordon that he was in as a rookie.
It’s completely understandable for a rookie not to be handed the keys immediately. Last season, had Williams not been able to break free of a completely cooked Gordon by midseason, it would’ve been a massive indictment of his ability. Unfortunately, due to the injury, we never got to see it play out.
By all accounts, Williams’ injury should’ve kept him out through a good chunk of the upcoming season. Yet, Williams not only returned to practice but even got some preseason action. That’s unheard of.
As any of the top fantasy football injury accounts on Twitter will tell you, a return to play does not equal a return to performance. Williams is going to play Week 1, but we really don’t know how far away he is from being able to handle a heavy workload.
Is Williams a Good Fantasy Pick?
In the wake of positive reports on his knee, Williams’ ADP is up to RB25, No. 67 overall. I have him ranked at RB26.
While I’m right with the consensus on Williams’ ranking, I’m far less interested in drafting him than the rank suggests. Where he goes, I would much rather take wide receivers or Darren Waller.
There is, of course, a chance Williams ramps up confidence in his knee and is able to return to top-level form by midseason. My concern is, even if that happens, is Williams anything more than a mid-to-low RB2?
The Broncos signed Samaje Perine. He’s a replacement-level talent but a proven one. We’ve seen elite RB1 performances from him filling in for Joe Mixon.
Sean Payton has historically used two backs, going back to his time in New Orleans. If Alvin Kamara never saw workhorse touches under Payton, why would Williams in his first year back from injury, especially with a capable RB2 on the roster?
MORE: 2023 Fantasy Football RB Rankings
I suspect this will be a 60-40 timeshare in Perine’s favor to start the season. As Williams improves, he could flip that his way, but 70-30 just isn’t happening.
I am also very concerned that the Broncos are going to be one of the worst offenses in football. Russell Wilson might not be good anymore, and I don’t think Payton is the savior many make him out to be.
Williams is down at RB28 in our PFN consensus rankings. While he’s unlikely to disappoint at his price, I don’t see a high enough ceiling to justify the risk.
