Washington Commanders running back Antonio Gibson is slated for a new role — arguably the one he should’ve been in all along as the team’s primary passing-down back. In a committee with Brian Robinson, is there enough work for Gibson to be viable in fantasy? Should fantasy football managers draft Gibson at his ADP this season?
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Antonio Gibson’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
Back in 2021, Gibson was one of “my guys” at the running back position. Fresh off a strong rookie season, I was all-in on Gibson taking a massive step forward as a sophomore.
Gibson’s 2021 season wasn’t a disaster, but for a guy going at the 1-2 turn, 14.3 PPR fantasy points per game and an RB17 finish weren’t good enough. For a guy who used to be a wide receiver in college, it was disheartening to see him pigeonholed into a two-down grinder role.
Last year, things got even worse. J.D. McKissic wholly dominated the receiving role, while Brian Robinson overtook Gibson as the primary runner. That left Gibson as a part-time player with no clear role. He wound up averaging just 11.1 ppg, finishing as the RB28.
Unfortunately for McKissic, neck injuries ended his career prematurely. The Commanders now have a clear two-man backfield consisting of Robinson and Gibson. Since Robinson is not exactly a receiver, Gibson is now slated for his more natural pass-catching role.
He actually saw a 12% target share last season, which was 11th in the league and impressive, considering how heavily McKissic was used before he got hurt. Gibson was also quite efficient on his targets, averaging 1.66 yards per route run, ranking ninth in the league.
Is Gibson a Good Fantasy Pick?
There is definitely concern that mobile QBs like Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett won’t target the running backs as much. But that’s baked into Gibson’s price.
Gibson’s ADP currently sits at RB37, No. 106 overall. For as disappointing as Gibson was in 2021 and as unproductive as he was in 2022, that is still lower than he’s ever finished.
I don’t think Gibson has the ceiling I thought he had in 2021, but as the primary receiving back, his floor should at least be that of an RB3. I like drafting players at their floors.
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I currently have Gibson ranked as my RB36 — right in line with the consensus. He is the RB35 in our PFN consensus rankings.
The best way to describe picking Gibson is “fine.” He is unlikely to be a needle-mover pick in either direction. If you need a running back in the latter stages of your draft and Gibson is the top guy left, go for it. If not, you’re probably not missing out on much.
