Jamaal Williams took full advantage of his opportunities last season with the Detroit Lions, and it earned him a deal with the New Orleans Saints. With Alvin Kamara suspended for the first three games and Kendre Miller yet to take an NFL snap, Williams figures to have a chance in September to earn an extended role at his new home and retain fantasy football value.
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Jamaal Williams’ Fantasy Outlook
Williams was a breakout fantasy football star last season, and while the city in which he is playing has changed, is the football situation drastically different? He’s playing in an offense with a veteran QB who lacks mobility, a developing star young receiver, and a level of uncertainty when it comes to the backfield touch distribution.
We learned in early August that Kamara will miss the first three games of this season, and with him showing signs of decline over the past two years, his hold on the RB1 title is a bit tenuous.
Miller did average 16 carries per game last season at TCU, but it would require a unique leap to get him to that point from the jump in the NFL (since 2016, just three times has an RB drafted outside of the first two rounds reached 16 carries as a rookie in Week 1).
This pass game figures to help the run game by challenging defenses vertically. Chris Olave is a problem (40+ yard catch or a touchdown in five of six games to open his career), and Rashid Shaheed’s 17.4 yards per catch last season was not an accident. This offense has more firepower than they are given credit for, and the ability to move the ball only elevates Williams’ potential.
How Much Value Does Williams Gain Due To Alvin Kamara’s Suspension?
As we just discussed, Williams profiles as the lead back through at least three games, and that gives him a chance to increase his role for when Kamara is back in action.
Williams isn’t a versatile option, so the ceiling is only so high, but if he can open this season how he ended last year (38 carries for 216 yards and three touchdowns in the final two games), the team will have no choice but to keep him involved.
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The absence of Kamara gives Williams a chance to carve out a fantasy-viable role, and it does the same for Miller. Could the rookie burst out? It’s possible, and that fuels the risk of Williams.
Miller is a younger version of Williams in terms of profile, so if he does excel when Kamara is out, he very well could cap Williams’ weekly touch count come October to a point where he is no longer on Flex radars.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Williams at His ADP?
This is exactly the type of player I like to draft in the middle-ish rounds. Williams’ role as a touchdown vulture should be safe, and that alone makes him a fine “in case of emergency” play at any point during the season. Plus, his three-game audition to open the year gives him role upside that exceeds his draft slot.
Let’s not overdo it and say that he has a chance to lead the league in TDs again. He doesn’t. He was on an offense that was continuously stopped inside the 5-yard line, and that is a fluky way to rack up fantasy points.
The team has stood by Kamara and invested the 71st overall pick in Miller, two things that easily make his 153 carries from 2021 closer to the expectation than his 262 a year ago.
Draft Williams for what he is: a Flex option with the upside (not the expectation) for more.
